CryptoQuant Labels Bitcoin Bottom Predictions as “Just Theory”

Bitcoin has yet to reach a local minimum, as the price must navigate several resistance zones.

Bitcoin has yet to reach a local minimum, as the price must navigate several resistance zones with a high concentration of loss-making positions. This assessment was provided by a CryptoQuant contributor known as IT Tech.

“The bottom is in.” Everyone’s saying it

“For the bottom to be confirmed, price needs to clear 88.88K and hold — not wick through, not retest and fail. That puts the most recent cohort back in profit and removes the first layer of sell pressure.” – By @IT_Tech_PL pic.twitter.com/woRJLa6UTs

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 7, 2026

The analyst identified three groups of long-term holders who purchased cryptocurrency at local peaks:

• investors (3-6 months): average purchase price — $88,888;
• 12-18 months: $93,450;
• 6-12 months: $111,850.

These levels act as barriers to growth. When quotes approach the entry price, market participants aim to close deals without loss, creating selling pressure.

IT Tech considers the $88,880 level crucial. Holding above this mark would return recent buyers to profit and significantly reduce market pressure.

As long as Bitcoin trades below this threshold, any rise into the $85,000-88,000 range is viewed by the analyst as a temporary rebound. In his view, discussions of a bottom remain theoretical, as data does not support them.

Bitcoin Rises to $85,200

Analysts at Glassnode noted that the first cryptocurrency’s quotes have surpassed the True Market Mean ($78,200) and the average purchase price of short-term holders ($79,100).

If the price holds at these levels, the period of the asset being “deeply undervalued” will become one of the shortest in history. Glassnode identified $85,200 as the next growth target.

Experts noted improvements in the market:

• profitability: the net profit and loss indicator has turned positive;
• ETF: recording net capital inflow for the fifth consecutive trading session, Ethereum funds have remained in the black for four days;
• futures: funding rates remain negative. 

Long-term investors have begun to show activity: they are realizing profits of about $180 million per day. This is significantly less than the peak values of the cycle ($1 billion), so the selling pressure is currently assessed as moderate.

In the options market, a large “negative gamma” cluster has formed around $82,000. Upon reaching this mark, volatility may spike sharply: dealers will be forced to hedge positions, amplifying any price movement.

Market Overheating

Sentiment in the Bitcoin community has peaked for four months amid Bitcoin’s rise above $80,000. According to Santiment, for every 1.37 positive mentions of the asset on social media, there is only one negative.

🙌 Bitcoin’s social sentiment has surged alongside its latest price rebound, with Santiment data showing a 1.37 bullish vs. 1.00 bearish commentary ratio across social media. This marks the highest level of positive crowd sentiment in roughly 4 months, signaling that traders are… pic.twitter.com/hR24lJyg5Y

— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) May 6, 2026

Traders have ceased to fear macroeconomic factors and geopolitics. Fear has been replaced by expectations of further growth.

Analysts reminded that historically, quotes often move contrary to the majority’s expectations. When the market is dominated by FOMO, the risk of forming a local peak and subsequent correction increases.

For comparison, in mid-April, amid the Kelp hack, pessimism dominated social media. This created conditions for a rebound — the market was cleared of “weak hands.”

Experts advise monitoring signs of excessive leverage and overconfidence among players — crowd unanimity often precedes a spike in volatility.

Earlier, on May 5, K33 Research specialists noted: prolonged pessimism in the market creates conditions for further growth.