Bitcoin hits $82,000 as analysts expect the rally to continue

Bitcoin tops $82,000 as K33 says persistent pessimism sets the stage for further gains.

The price of the leading cryptocurrency climbed above $82,000, a three-month high. K33 Research noted that prolonged market pessimism is setting the stage for further gains.

Funding rates in the derivatives market have stayed negative for 67 straight days. The 30-day average funding has surpassed the spring 2020 record—the longest streak in the past decade.

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, stressed that this pattern reflects traders’ defensive positioning. Historically, extended periods of negative funding have coincided with market bottoms.

According to K33, buying bitcoin during bearish phases delivers higher returns than random entries. The probability of profit over horizons up to a year in such periods is 83%–96%, versus 55%–70% for purchases on arbitrary days.

Lunde added that the state of the derivatives market creates a risk of a short squeeze. In his view, the metrics reflect genuine market sentiment rather than technical patterns. All past episodes with similar funding rates proved favourable for accumulation.

Bitcoin and key resistance

BloFin’s analysts compared the current market structure with January’s set-up. Then the leading cryptocurrency rose 22%, reached $98,000 and hit the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). A 38% drop to $60,000 followed.

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💡 Is Bitcoin about to break higher, or repeat January’s rejection?

The current rally mirrors January, when BTC surged 22% to $98K, hit the 200D EMA, RSI entered overbought territory, and got rejected hard, dropping 38% to $60k.

🟠 BTC: Same resistance, different demand… https://t.co/ATgNcK6tAi pic.twitter.com/uLvsAiM30a

— BloFin Research (@BloFin_Academy) May 6, 2026

Bitcoin is again moving within an ascending channel, and the Relative Strength Index is nearing overbought territory. Yet the fundamentals look stronger than at the start of the year:

• in April, net inflows into spot bitcoin-ETFs totalled $2.44bn—the best since last autumn;
• large players and corporations are absorbing supply: Strategy bought over 100,000 BTC, and whales accumulated 270,000 BTC over the month;
• corporate demand is 2.5 times the pace of new coin issuance by miners.

The critical range is $83,000–84,000. A sustained break above the 200-day EMA would confirm the bull trend.

Among external risks, experts highlight uncertainty after the change of leadership at the Fed and the impact of oil prices on global inflation. These factors could heighten volatility and spur outflows from risk assets.

Bitcoin at $93,000

XWIN Japan’s analysts called $93,000 a key upside target for bitcoin. In their view, this level stems from the mechanics of price gaps on the CME.

Why $93,000 Is a Key Upside Target for Bitcoin

“CME gaps are not guarantees, but signals. They represent zones where positioning, liquidity, and market psychology converge, making them key reference points for future price action.” – By @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/H1rh2O2eIJ

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 6, 2026

Gaps arise from differing trading schedules: CME futures operate only on weekdays, whereas the spot market runs around the clock. As a result, zones of thin liquidity form between Friday’s close and Monday’s open.

Experts stressed that a gap is not merely a “magnet” for price but an area where no trades occurred. The market tends to revisit such zones to rebalance positions and refill liquidity.

Open interest (OI)—the total number of active contracts—is a key factor. Elevated OI points to excess leverage. When traders start to close positions or face liquidations, price moves toward liquidity clusters—often the gaps.

One gap has already been filled. The next target is around $93,000, which XWIN Japan sees as a logical medium-term reference.

Analysts cautioned that the move will not necessarily be linear. If leverage swells without support from spot demand, the market may first turn lower. Such a correction would flush weak positions before a subsequent rise toward the upper target.

De-escalation in the Middle East

The price of the leading cryptocurrency exceeded $80,000 alongside gains in US equities. QCP Capital’s analysts linked the positive tone to President Donald Trump’s decision to pause Operation Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz.

Easing regional tensions pushed oil prices down and the dollar weaker. Investors read this as a cue to buy risk assets. The S&P 500 posted its best result since 2020, and bitcoin reaffirmed its correlation with equities.

The options market does not yet confirm a full-fledged breakout. One-month implied volatility sits near 41%, and demand for put options persists—participants are buying bitcoin but continue to hedge risks.

Analysts highlighted key sources of pressure on prices:

• Japan: a weak yen and rising government-bond yields could constrain global liquidity;
• macro: sticky inflation and high US interest rates;
• energy: a possible return of rising oil prices.

For the rally to extend, bitcoin needs to hold above $82,000–83,000. QCP Capital warned that until these levels are cleared, any advance could flip into a sell-off if the external backdrop deteriorates.

On May 5, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said, that bitcoin would rise to $125,000 by year-end.