{"id":96721,"date":"2026-05-01T13:19:30","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T10:19:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/?p=96721"},"modified":"2026-05-01T13:20:25","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T10:20:25","slug":"cryptoquant-labels-april-bitcoin-surge-as-speculative","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/cryptoquant-labels-april-bitcoin-surge-as-speculative\/","title":{"rendered":"CryptoQuant Labels April Bitcoin Surge as Speculative"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>According to CryptoQuant analysts, April&#8217;s rally of the leading cryptocurrency from $66,000 to $79,000 was driven by perpetual futures, while spot demand remained negative.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Perp demand is rising. Spot demand is still contracting.<\/p>\n<p>That exact setup appeared in 2022 and preceded the next leg down.<\/p>\n<p>It doesn\u2019t guarantee the same outcome, but structurally, this is a bearish demand signal. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/jE1Ld6koaZ\">pic.twitter.com\/jE1Ld6koaZ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2049892000279802154?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 30, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>They noted that the divergence between price growth and declining spot interest indicates a speculative nature of the movement. The <span data-descr=\"shows whether new demand is sufficient to cover current supply\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Apparent Demand<\/span> metric remained below zero throughout the month, indicating a lack of organic buyer support.<\/p>\n<p>Experts compared the current demand structure to the beginning of the 2022 bear phase: back then, growth in derivatives volumes was also accompanied by a contraction in spot activity, after which Bitcoin entered a multi-month correction.<\/p>\n<p>The digital gold&#8217;s price has already retreated from a local high of around $79,000 to approximately $77,000. By the end of April, the asset had risen nearly 12%\u2014the best performance since the start of the year, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/today\">CoinGlass<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-41afea644f138fcb-3231788741501519.webp\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-279367\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/atJ4mYHE\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Specialists called this a predictable outcome of a rally primarily based on futures.<\/p>\n<p>An additional signal was CryptoQuant&#8217;s <span data-descr=\"indicator of bull market strength\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Bull Score<\/span>, which dropped from 50 to 40, falling back below the neutral mark into the &#8220;bearish zone.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Level for Short-Term Holders<\/h2>\n<p>CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente specifically pointed to the <span data-descr=\"Short Term Holders \" class=\"old_tooltip\">STH<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-mvrv-indicator\">MVRV<\/a> indicator, which reflects the position of short-term Bitcoin holders.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin Is Close to Flipping the Market Structure<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA sustained reclaim of the Realized Price, paired with the MVRV stabilizing and trending above 1.0, would signal a structural regime change.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MorenoDV_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@MorenoDV_<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AsxsyFEyzi\">pic.twitter.com\/AsxsyFEyzi<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2050117157858537651?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 1, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to him, in the current cycle, the indicator forms a descending resistance line connecting three peaks:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>March 2024 \u2014 Bitcoin reached $72,000;<\/li>\n<li>November 2024 \u2014 price rose to $106,000;<\/li>\n<li>July 2025 \u2014 the asset hit a new high of around $120,000.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In all these cases, the price reached historical highs, but STH MVRV showed lower peaks. This is a sign of weakening momentum among short-term holders, despite rising prices.<\/p>\n<p>The market is now approaching a crucial test of this structure, the expert noted. If Bitcoin consolidates above the realized price of short-term holders, this group will move from loss to profit.<\/p>\n<p>According to Moreno de Vicente, a sustained recovery along with STH MVRV stabilizing above 1.0 could signal a market regime change\u2014recent buyers would then stop pressuring the price at every rebound.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ethereum and the Risk of a Short Squeeze<\/h2>\n<p>Similar tension in the derivatives market is observed with Ethereum, but the structure looks different. The altcoin&#8217;s price has dropped 65% from its local peak. The <span data-descr=\"capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins\" class=\"old_tooltip\">TOTAL2<\/span> indicator has fallen by more than 51%, noted analyst Darkfost.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\uddde\ufe0f Short Squeeze builds on Ethereum as Funding mirrors FTX-Era Extremes<\/p>\n<p>The altcoin market was hit hard during this downturn, with Ethereum at the forefront. ETH recorded a correction of around 65% from its last peak. TOTAL2, which represents the total market cap of altcoins\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/7NkZo5XkNf\">pic.twitter.com\/7NkZo5XkNf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc\/status\/2050122486663049423?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 1, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>From the February low, the asset has recovered more than 30%. However, many participants still do not believe in the recovery and continue to open short positions, the specialist emphasized.<\/p>\n<p>According to him, <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/the-funding-rate-how-it-helps-anticipate-price-reversals-in-bitcoin-and-ethereum\">funding rates<\/a> for Ethereum on Binance have remained negative for a long time. This was only observed during the <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/greed-and-recklessness-why-the-ftx-collapse-is-being-likened-to-the-2008-crisis\">FTX collapse<\/a> and the bottom of the last bear market in November 2022.<\/p>\n<p>The average monthly funding is currently -0.0018. Darkfost believes this reflects a persistent consensus among traders betting on further decline.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThis is a risky bet, and some are already paying the price\u2014as indicated by the growing volume of short position liquidations. As ETH&#8217;s upward momentum strengthens, shorts are increasingly squeezed out. This dynamic could fuel Ethereum&#8217;s recovery: cascading liquidations are mounting. Markets rarely reward such unanimous opinion,\u201d he concluded.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>At the time of writing, the leading altcoin is trading around $2280. Over the past day, its price has risen by 0.8%, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/\">CoinGecko<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>On April 30, Glassnode experts <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/glassnode-observes-easing-bitcoin-seller-pressure\">noted<\/a> a weakening of selling pressure from Bitcoin sellers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>April&#8217;s Bitcoin rally from $66,000 to $79,000 was driven by perpetual futures, while spot demand remained negative, CryptoQuant noted.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":96722,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"April's Bitcoin rally driven by futures, spot demand negative, says CryptoQuant.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1205,46,1268],"class_list":["post-96721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptoquant","tag-ethereum","tag-on-chain-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"7","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"April's Bitcoin rally driven by futures, spot demand negative, says CryptoQuant.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96721","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96721"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96721\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":96723,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96721\/revisions\/96723"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}