{"id":96016,"date":"2026-04-08T16:05:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T13:05:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/?p=96016"},"modified":"2026-04-08T16:12:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T13:12:05","slug":"qcp-capital-questions-the-resilience-of-bitcoins-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/qcp-capital-questions-the-resilience-of-bitcoins-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"QCP Capital questions the resilience of bitcoin&#8217;s rally"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz does not guarantee the lifting of supply constraints or an easing of oil-driven inflationary pressure, QCP Capital said.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">QCP Market Colour \u2014 08 Apr 26<\/p>\n<p>1\/ BTC moved back above $71k after a conditional US\u2013Iran ceasefire tied to reopening Hormuz. Risk reacted as expected, equities up, oil back into the low-$90s as immediate supply risk was repriced.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 QCP (@QCPgroup) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/QCPgroup\/status\/2041817204191326654?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 8, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The conditional ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-surges-past-71000-amid-us-iran-ceasefire\">triggered<\/a> a rally in risk assets and sent oil down to $90. However, just hours before the US-Iran truce was reached, Tehran struck a petrochemical facility in Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts reckon the truce improved only short-term sentiment: markets are pricing a chance of de-escalation, but the overall picture remains fragile.<\/p>\n<p>Caution is warranted, as the risk of further damage has not vanished. Beyond the strike on the Jubail petrochemical facility, Saudi authorities also reported intercepting several ballistic missiles aimed at the Eastern Province.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThe risks to key energy infrastructure persist \u2014 supply constraints may not disappear even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens,\u201d the specialists said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A contradictory macro backdrop<\/h2>\n<p>The macro backdrop is also mixed. US payrolls rose in March, but broader gauges such as <span data-descr=\"Number of job openings in the US labour market\" class=\"old_tooltip\">JOLTS<\/span> point to a cooling labour market. <\/p>\n<p>The <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span> expects growth to slow, making weak jobs data a less reliable recession signal. According to QCP, the Fed is balancing a softer economy against a new bout of energy-led inflation. Its next steps will hinge on consumer-price data, which <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/april-highlights-dogecoin-day-and-the-federal-reserves-key-rate-meeting\">will be published on 10 April<\/a>. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThe move in the options market looks more like a news-driven spike than a full reset of risk. Short-term bitcoin volatility declined after the truce, but demand for downside protection has not \u2014 investors are still hedging even as price rises,\u201d the analysts stressed. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Traders are actively betting on gains in the $75,000-85,000 range and on declines towards $60,000-65,000. The key question is whether it can break resistance at $74,000. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sentiment has improved, but structure remains weak<\/h2>\n<p>The ceasefire announcement drew an immediate market reaction. On Binance derivatives, aggressive buy volume reached $2.7bn within two hours, noted CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udfe2 $2.7B of BTC buy volume emerges on Binance derivatives after ceasefire news.<\/p>\n<p>While an announcement from President Trump was expected at 8:00 PM (ET), he ultimately declared a two-week ceasefire with Iran about one hour earlier.<\/p>\n<p>\u2611\ufe0f This ceasefire also includes the reopening\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FAJfNvCCeS\">pic.twitter.com\/FAJfNvCCeS<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc\/status\/2041780360199942600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 8, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThis is a good sign for bitcoin, but the dynamics still depend heavily on further news and geopolitics,\u201d he explained.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Analyst Axel Adler Jr confirmed that futures-market sentiment has exited a zone of local pressure. Over three days, bitcoin rose from $66,800 to $71,700, and the corresponding index increased from 23.4 to 53.1.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin bounced hard.<br \/>Futures are already signaling recovery.<br \/>Market structure still refuses to confirm it.<\/p>\n<p>Morning Brief 143 \ud83d\udc47<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/BroCpcESi2\">https:\/\/t.co\/BroCpcESi2<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/7kjXri7qkV\">pic.twitter.com\/7kjXri7qkV<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Axel \ud83d\udc8e\ud83d\ude4c Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/2041793878311752193?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 8, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>However, a few hours after the truce was announced, the rise cooled. To sustain the uptrend, the asset needs more than a return of investor interest \u2014 it must hold current levels without sharp pullbacks.<\/p>\n<p>Spot-market technicals have improved, though less visibly than in derivatives. The composite structure indicator rose from -0.58 to -0.03, signaling a shift from a bearish phase to neutral.<\/p>\n<p>Even so, the price of digital gold sits in the lower third of its 21-day range (29%). The recovery is occurring near the lower bound, whereas trend changes are usually confirmed near the upper one.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cDerivatives have turned faster than the price structure itself. This is a good sign for a short-term recovery, but not final proof that the market has already entered a phase of sustainable rally,\u201d Adler concluded.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What next? <\/h2>\n<p>Traders fear the formation of a Bear Flag on bitcoin\u2019s daily chart. The analyst known as Jelle warned against \u201cgetting euphoric\u201d about the recent rally \u2014 the advance may run into resistance at the upper boundary of the pattern, around $72,000-76,000.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">From the bearish point of view, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> bulls still have a lot of work to do.<\/p>\n<p>The argument for a bearish flag into key resistance remains strong.<\/p>\n<p>News pumps into resistance, easy to get euphoric\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Sticking to my long-term plan; let&#8217;s roll. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZUnCZhDGFR\">pic.twitter.com\/ZUnCZhDGFR<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoJelleNL\/status\/2041771672613576710?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 8, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cBitcoin reclaimed $72,000, but bears are on alert. The $76,000 level will decide it. Above \u2014 a target of $86,000-90,000; below \u2014 a new drop to $60,000,\u201d \u2014 <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CryptoPatel\/status\/2041735033476517937\"><em>added<\/em><\/a><em> another expert under the pseudonym Crypto Patel. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, Coin Bureau head Nik Pakrin <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/expert-warns-of-bitcoins-dangerous-level-below-68000\">called<\/a> the first cryptocurrency\u2019s level below $68,000 \u201cdangerous\u201d. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Reopening the Strait of Hormuz will not necessarily lift supply curbs or ease oil-driven inflation, QCP Capital said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":96017,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"QCP doubts bitcoin rally's durability amid fragile geopolitics and mixed macro signals.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1205,840,1138,1326,26],"class_list":["post-96016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptoquant","tag-iran","tag-opinions","tag-qcp-capital","tag-usa"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"6","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"QCP doubts bitcoin rally's durability amid fragile geopolitics and mixed macro signals.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96016","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96016"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96016\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":96018,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96016\/revisions\/96018"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96017"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96016"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96016"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96016"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}