{"id":92524,"date":"2025-12-22T18:00:14","date_gmt":"2025-12-22T15:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=92524"},"modified":"2025-12-23T09:05:24","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T06:05:24","slug":"analysts-weigh-the-odds-of-a-santa-claus-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/analysts-weigh-the-odds-of-a-santa-claus-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts Weigh Likelihood of a Santa Claus Rally This Year"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin has recovered to about $90,000 after a local low at $84,400. The 6.5% bounce has reignited talk of a traditional pre-holiday \u201cSanta Claus rally\u201d.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"624\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-5d0e4f10d27a44ce-1631067293830666-1024x624.png\" alt=\"BTCUSDT_2025-12-22_17-02-51\" class=\"wp-image-272287\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-5d0e4f10d27a44ce-1631067293830666-1024x624.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-5d0e4f10d27a44ce-1631067293830666-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-5d0e4f10d27a44ce-1631067293830666-768x468.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-5d0e4f10d27a44ce-1631067293830666.png 1429w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The analyst known as AlphaBTC expects the uptrend to continue.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> LTF plan <\/p>\n<p>Still no change, looking for that Santa rally \ud83c\udf85<\/p>\n<p>Give us an early XMas present \ud83c\udf81 &#038; send it to 98-100K pls \ud83d\ude4f <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Crypto?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Crypto<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BTC?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#BTC<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9Dwck8UBjN\">https:\/\/t.co\/9Dwck8UBjN<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NuCfUjxxrL\">pic.twitter.com\/NuCfUjxxrL<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 AlphaBTC (@mark_cullen) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mark_cullen\/status\/2002965121241354265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 22, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He sees the year\u2019s opening price at $93,300 as the first target, with the next resistance at $98,000\u2013100,000.<\/p>\n<p>The trader known as Captain Faibik pointed to a developing bullish \u201cmegaphone\u201d pattern. Since 22 November the asset has been consolidating in a wide $82,000\u201395,000 range.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> longer the consolidation, Stronger &#038; bigger the Rally that follows.. \ud83e\udd2b <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GV7Ht9WtUN\">pic.twitter.com\/GV7Ht9WtUN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Captain Faibik \ud83d\udc3a (@CryptoFaibik) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoFaibik\/status\/2003012395288138205?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 22, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThe longer the consolidation, the stronger and bigger the rally that follows,\u201d he said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The measured target from the pattern is $120,000, implying a 34% rise from current levels.<\/p>\n<p>Not everyone shares the optimism. The analyst Ardi pointed to historical data: from 24 December to 2 January bitcoin\u2019s returns have often fallen.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> \/ Bitcoin<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The Santa Rally is coming!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>If you&#8217;re tracking the &#8220;Santa Rally&#8221; window (the final five trading days of December plus the first two of January), the data over the last five years paints a very clear picture of why traders gets trapped with this narrative.\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EFMEwoiHC7\">https:\/\/t.co\/EFMEwoiHC7<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cMT0p3XYjx\">pic.twitter.com\/cMT0p3XYjx<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ardi (@ArdiNSC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ArdiNSC\/status\/2002144019749421475?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 19, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Only 2020 (+34.5%) was an exception. The current market structure resembles 2021, when the cryptocurrency lost 7.9% over the holidays amid selling by large holders.<\/p>\n<p>On-chain metrics suggest buyers have the upper hand. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr noted supportive conditions in the derivatives market.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">BTC is entering a window for a Santa rally: the Regime Score is bullish but not overheated. Short liquidations are reinforcing the asymmetry in favor of buyers.<\/p>\n<p>\u2615\ufe0fMorning Brief #66 \ud83d\udc47<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/6eeXRpMclx\">https:\/\/t.co\/6eeXRpMclx<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qK4wrHOygy\">pic.twitter.com\/qK4wrHOygy<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Axel \ud83d\udc8e\ud83d\ude4c Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/2003011584810189161?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 22, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The Regime Score indicator is in bullish but not overheated territory. Dominance of short liquidations is providing fuel for price gains.<\/p>\n<p>Key support remains $84,000. The trader known as DaanCrypto called this level critical to defend the uptrend.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> Still sitting at support of the .382 Fibonacci retracement level of the entire cycle.<\/p>\n<p>This remains a key area to defend for the bulls on the high timeframe. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sGYGQ0353R\">pic.twitter.com\/sGYGQ0353R<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DaanCrypto\/status\/2003013135397953994?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 22, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Glassnode analysts recorded rising derivatives activity as the price of the leading cryptocurrency moved back above $90,000.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">With price back above $90K, perpetual open interest has risen from 304K to 310K BTC (~2% increase), while the funding rate has heated up from 0.04% to 0.09%.<\/p>\n<p>This combination signals a renewed buildup in leveraged long positioning, as perpetual traders position for a potential\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uQNqo3O9U0\">pic.twitter.com\/uQNqo3O9U0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/2003091492546498746?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 22, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Open interest in perpetual futures increased from 304,000 to 310,000 BTC (about 2%). In parallel, funding rates rose from 0.04% to 0.09%.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts interpret this combination as a renewed build-up of leveraged long positions. Market participants are positioning for a potential year-end rally.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, CryptoQuant analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/analysts-warn-of-crypto-winter-onset-bottom-expected-at-56000\">warned<\/a> of a shift to a bear market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin has rebounded to about $90,000, reviving talk of a pre-holiday \u201cSanta Claus rally\u201d. Analysts are split on the odds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":92525,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin rebounds to ~$90,000 as traders debate the odds of a Santa Claus rally.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1146,1145],"class_list":["post-92524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"193","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin rebounds to ~$90,000 as traders debate the odds of a Santa Claus rally.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92524","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92524"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92524\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":92530,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92524\/revisions\/92530"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92525"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}