{"id":89486,"date":"2025-10-01T19:01:43","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T16:01:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=89486"},"modified":"2025-10-01T19:05:47","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T16:05:47","slug":"analysts-elucidate-the-pattern-of-seasonal-rallies-in-q4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/analysts-elucidate-the-pattern-of-seasonal-rallies-in-q4\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts Elucidate the Pattern of Seasonal Rallies in Q4"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The historical performance of Bitcoin exhibits a pronounced seasonality not only in October but throughout the entire fourth quarter. This was <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/68dc44a849ecef5897759016-The-Calm-Before-the-Moon-Why-Bitcoin-Always-Rallies-Into-Year-End\">stated<\/a> by contributors to CryptoQuant, the XWIN Research group.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"539\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-f21ec5892b3cee45-5726763185685468-1024x539.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-266765\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-f21ec5892b3cee45-5726763185685468-1024x539.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-f21ec5892b3cee45-5726763185685468-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-f21ec5892b3cee45-5726763185685468-768x404.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-f21ec5892b3cee45-5726763185685468.png 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: CryptoQuant.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>While August and September often show negative or zero returns (averaging -0.54% and -4.16% respectively), October (+29.9%), November (+37.5%), and December (+4.75%) consistently outperform them, analysts noted.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThis <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/analysts-predict-uptober-despite-market-fear-signals\">Uptober<\/a> phenomenon is not isolated: it marks the beginning of a structural year-end rally, fueled by macroeconomic, behavioral, and cyclical factors,\u201d emphasized XWIN Research.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>According to the specialists, their view is supported by the <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-mvrv-indicator\">MVRV<\/a> indicator. From 2016 to 2025, the metric remained around 1.8 for most of the time, then rose above 1.9 in October, approaching 2.0 by December. This signals increased investor returns, reflecting market demand and confidence, experts explained.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"610\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-5fa0051363d1463d-5726763185374593-1024x610.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-266766\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-5fa0051363d1463d-5726763185374593-1024x610.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-5fa0051363d1463d-5726763185374593-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-5fa0051363d1463d-5726763185374593-768x458.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-5fa0051363d1463d-5726763185374593.png 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: CryptoQuant.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Drivers of the Rally<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>XWIN Research identified several factors underpinning the market&#8217;s &#8220;strength&#8221; in the fourth quarter:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Capital rotation<\/strong> accelerates as institutional investors rebalance portfolios at year-end, providing an influx of fresh capital;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Macro catalysts<\/strong> \u2014 US elections, <span data-descr=\"Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve\" class=\"old_tooltip\">FOMC<\/span> decisions, and monetary policy easing \u2014 often weaken the dollar, pushing investors towards riskier assets like Bitcoin;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Historical <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving\">halving<\/a> cycles<\/strong> also coincide with fourth-quarter rallies, as supply reductions exert upward pressure;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Investor psychology<\/strong> amplifies effects: after summer stagnation, optimism returns, provoking <span data-descr=\"fear of missing out\" class=\"old_tooltip\">FOMO<\/span> and impulsive buying.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cSeasonal narratives like Uptober become self-fulfilling, fueling demand and driving prices up. As a result, October is not just a strong month but a flashpoint for a broader bullish phase in the fourth quarter, often culminating in an explosive year-end rally,\u201d analysts concluded.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, on September 30, the US government <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-tops-116000-as-us-government-shuts-down\">suspended<\/a> operations for the first time since 2018. The leading cryptocurrency rose above $116,000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The historical performance of Bitcoin exhibits a pronounced seasonality not only in October but throughout the entire fourth quarter, stated contributors to CryptoQuant, the XWIN Research group.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":89487,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin shows pronounced seasonality in Q4, say CryptoQuant analysts.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1145],"class_list":["post-89486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"226","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin shows pronounced seasonality in Q4, say CryptoQuant analysts.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89486"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89486\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89488,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89486\/revisions\/89488"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}