{"id":89230,"date":"2025-09-24T16:58:15","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T13:58:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=89230"},"modified":"2025-09-24T17:01:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T14:01:10","slug":"analysts-diverge-on-bitcoin-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/analysts-diverge-on-bitcoin-forecasts\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts Diverge on Bitcoin Forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The implied volatility of the leading cryptocurrency has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, according to analysts at XWIN Research.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin\u2019s Calm Before the Storm<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese three signals paint a consistent picture: exchange supply is drying up, investors are sitting tight, and derivatives markets are calm. While implied volatility points to one of the quietest phases in years.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/xwinfinance?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@xwinfinance<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/e5aGBbcpb0\">pic.twitter.com\/e5aGBbcpb0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/1970794464110100903?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Previously, such a situation preceded a price increase from $29,000 to historical highs. Blockchain data suggests a &#8220;calm before the storm,&#8221; experts believe.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Three Key Signals<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin reserves on exchanges continue to decline and are near multi-year lows. This indicates a decrease in the number of coins available for immediate sale. Historically, a drop in reserves has led to a supply shortage amid a sharp increase in demand, specialists noted.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-mvrv-indicator\">MVRV<\/a> ratio is in a neutral zone around 2.1. XWIN Research pointed out that investors lack a strong incentive for panic selling or mass profit-taking.<\/p>\n<p>Funding rates on major exchanges remain moderate. This shows that traders in the derivatives market are not opening long or short positions with high leverage.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Potential Pressure<\/h2>\n<p>CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno noted a brief surge in the inflow of bitcoins to trading platforms, reaching 5,000 BTC per hour.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin flowing into exchanges has grown in the last few hours, and reached a hourly high of 5K. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/RguZW2ZYZZ\">pic.twitter.com\/RguZW2ZYZZ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jjcmoreno\/status\/1970582797380403561?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>His colleague Axel Adler Jr. believes that the market structure has shifted in favor of the bears.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The market structure has shifted, with the composite index falling below the \u22120.4 threshold, indicating bear dominance, a negative fast\u2013slow EMA spread accounting for the trend and price positioning in the lower part of the 21-day Donchian Channel. <\/p>\n<p>The market has transitioned\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NnS1Xkw5NE\">pic.twitter.com\/NnS1Xkw5NE<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Axel \ud83d\udc8e\ud83d\ude4c Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/1970720651783660018?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In his view, the current price rebounds are merely &#8220;corrective rallies,&#8221; not the start of a new trend.<\/p>\n<p>According to Glassnode, inflows into US spot bitcoin-<a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETF<\/a>s have slowed after a strong start in September, with recent sessions showing a slight outflow of funds. This may indicate a pause in institutional demand.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"glassnode\/1279\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Analysts also noted that long-term holders have already realized a historically large volume of profits \u2014 3.4 million BTC since reaching a new cycle high.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"glassnode\/1278\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What About Ethereum?<\/h2>\n<p>In the Ethereum market, the key support zone could be the $2,900 level. According to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, this is the average purchase price of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization for &#8220;accumulation addresses.&#8221;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-e111277eebb96afa-5114892806699240.webp\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2025-09-24 163111\" class=\"wp-image-266322\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/68d2fd4b756c0b23f07c5f13-ETH-Accumulation-Addresses-Show-29K-Realized-Price-A-Key-Support-Zone\">CryptoQuant<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The total balance on such wallets has reached 27.6 million ETH. In the event of a strong correction, the level mentioned by the expert could provide significant support to the price.<\/p>\n<p>Additional tension in the Ethereum market is created by the upcoming expiration of options worth $5.5 billion. The &#8220;maximum pain&#8221; point for this event is at $3,700 \u2014 the level at which holders will incur the greatest losses.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The put-to-call ratio is 0.76, indicating moderately bearish sentiment. The large volume suggests high trader interest and expectations of increased volatility near the expiration date.<\/p>\n<p>On September 23, analyst Mr. Anderson also <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoins-volatility-poised-for-a-surge-analysts-predict\">noted<\/a> that the volatility of digital gold had reached a historic low.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The implied volatility of the leading cryptocurrency has fallen to its lowest level since 2023.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":89231,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin's implied volatility hits a historic low, suggesting a calm before potential market shifts.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1146,1268],"class_list":["post-89230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-on-chain-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"212","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin's implied volatility hits a historic low, suggesting a calm before potential market shifts.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89230","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89230"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89230\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89232,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89230\/revisions\/89232"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}