{"id":87983,"date":"2023-12-07T17:18:16","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T15:18:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=87983"},"modified":"2025-09-13T15:14:11","modified_gmt":"2025-09-13T12:14:11","slug":"analysts-forecast-the-duration-of-bitcoins-current-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/analysts-forecast-the-duration-of-bitcoins-current-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts Forecast the Duration of Bitcoin&#8217;s Current Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-keypoints article_keypoints\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The average drawdown in bear phases was 74.8%, the rise during bull phases was 6060%.<\/li>\n<li>In terms of cycle duration, bull markets have lasted on average 604 days (median 571 days), bear markets 354 and 293 days respectively.<\/li>\n<li>If historical trends continue, investors can expect at least ten more corrections before reaching ATH.<\/li>\n<li>Stock-market dynamics may influence Bitcoin&#8217;s upside potential, and the halving factor is set to continue diminishing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>The average drawdown in bear market phases stood at 74.8%, with gains during bull stages at 6060%. These estimates were provided by <a href=\"https:\/\/thedefiant.io\/charting-history-s-rhyme-understanding-the-cyclicality-of-crypto-markets\">IOSG<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Experts say Bitcoin is currently approaching the middle of its sixth bull market.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-856.webp\" alt=\"1-856\" class=\"wp-image-221635\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: IOSG Ventures<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cycle parameters<\/h2>\n<p>In the tables below, the analysts present statistics for each of the bull and bear markets. The average figures for growth and depth of drawdown were 6000% and 74.8%, with medians of 1400% and 77% respectively.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-680.webp\" alt=\"2-680\" class=\"wp-image-221636\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: IOSG Ventures<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Bull markets have lasted on average 604 days (median 571 days), bear markets 354 and 293 days respectively.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-399.webp\" alt=\"3-399\" class=\"wp-image-221637\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: IOSG Ventures<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comparison with previous cycles<\/h2>\n<p>The current bull cycle lasts about a year. The graph below compares the returns with those of previous cycles.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-258.webp\" alt=\"4-258\" class=\"wp-image-221638\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: IOSG Ventures<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The current bull market has shown a more gradual profile in historical retrospect.<\/p>\n<p>On the path to the peak, the previous cycle experienced nearly 115 daily corrections of 5% or more, while in the current cycle there were 10.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-161.webp\" alt=\"5-161\" class=\"wp-image-221639\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: IOSG Ventures<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>If historical patterns (not fewer than 20 pullbacks of 5% and more) remain in force, one can expect at least ten more corrections before this cycle&#8217;s peak.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-115.webp\" alt=\"6-115\" class=\"wp-image-221640\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: IOSG Ventures<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Impact of halvings<\/h2>\n<p>Noting the absence of a statistically significant sample size to assess the impact of <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving\">halvings<\/a>, analysts noted that visually one can see their influence on prices.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-69.webp\" alt=\"7-69\" class=\"wp-image-221641\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: IOSG Ventures<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In percentage terms, the impact of the halving is gradually diminishing as Bitcoin matures. A year after the last such event, the price rose more than sixfold.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/8-53.webp\" alt=\"8-53\" class=\"wp-image-221642\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: IOSG Ventures<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Relation to the stock market<\/h2>\n<p>For the pre-halving period there is also strong price movement, but less pronounced than after the event. With each new cycle, the effect diminished\u2014from 400% to 25%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/9-45.webp\" alt=\"9-45\" class=\"wp-image-221643\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: IOSG Ventures<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Analysts noted that the halving coincided with favorable conditions in the equity market.<\/p>\n<p>Experts are skeptical of the thesis that the halving plays a decisive role in timing the start of a new cycle.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/10-29.webp\" alt=\"10-29\" class=\"wp-image-221644\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: IOSG Ventures<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>Crypto traders are likely to keep a close eye on the external environment. It is expected that interest rates, oil prices and the outcome of ongoing geopolitical wars will have a significant impact on the overall macrocycle<\/em>, \u2014 concluded the specialists.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, analysts at K33 Research<a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/k33-research-bitcoin-rebounds-faster-than-in-previous-cycles\"> concluded<\/a> that Bitcoin is recovering faster than in previous cycles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The average drawdown in bear phases was 74.8%, and gains during bull phases were 6060%. These estimates were provided by IOSG.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":87984,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,160,1145,1150,1138,1253],"class_list":["post-87983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-halving","tag-market-analysis","tag-news-plus","tag-opinions","tag-technical-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"17","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87983","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87983"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87983\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87985,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87983\/revisions\/87985"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87984"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87983"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87983"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87983"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}