{"id":87948,"date":"2023-12-07T11:12:26","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T09:12:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=87948"},"modified":"2025-09-13T14:58:35","modified_gmt":"2025-09-13T11:58:35","slug":"k33-research-bitcoin-rebounds-faster-than-in-previous-cycles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/k33-research-bitcoin-rebounds-faster-than-in-previous-cycles\/","title":{"rendered":"K33 Research: Bitcoin rebounds faster than in previous cycles"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\\\"wp-block-text-wrappers-keypoints article_keypoints\\\">\\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\\\"wp-block-list\\\">\\n<\/p>\n<li>Bitcoin&#8217;s recovery toward an all-time high is faster than in previous years, driven by institutional players.<\/li>\n<p>\\n<\/p>\n<li>Muted retail investor demand sets the stage for continued upside.<\/li>\n<p>\\n<\/p>\n<li>Approval of a Bitcoin ETF between January 5 and 10 could trigger &#8216;selling on the news&#8217; if there is insufficient demand for the instrument.<\/li>\n<p>\\n<\/ul>\n<p>\\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<p>With the drawdown from the <span data-descr=\\\"all-time high\\\" class=\\\"old_tooltip\\\">ATH<\/span> in November 2021 to 36%, the recovery toward the all-time high appears much faster than in prior cycles. This view was reached by <a href=\\\"https:\/\/k33.com\/research\/articles\/markets-keep-climbing-on-etf-anticipation\\\">K33 Research<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\\n\\n\\n<\/p>\n<p>Since the last ATH, 755 days have passed. The drawdown to -40% in 2021 occurred on day 1092, while in 2017 it was 1178 days later.<\/p>\n<p>\\n\\n\\n<\/p>\n<figure class=\\\"wp-block-image size-full\\\"><img decoding=\\\"async\\\" src=\\\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-855.webp\\\" alt=\\\"1-855\\\" class=\\\"wp-image-221596\\\"\/><figcaption class=\\\"wp-element-caption\\\">Source: K33 Research.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\\n\\n\\n<\/p>\n<p>Analysts explained that the difference is driven by demand from financial institutions, conditioned by expectations for the approval of a spot <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETF<\/a> based on digital gold, they added.<\/p>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\\\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\\\"><p>\\n<\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cIn none of the previous cycles has institutional demand been comparable with the current one \u2014 large institutions are both participating in the space and publicly backing Bitcoin. In 36 days, US ETFs will receive their final verdict,\u201d<\/em> \u2014 according to the report.<\/p>\n<p>\\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<p>Analysts at QCP Capital warned that the further dynamics will be determined by actual demand for the instrument.<\/p>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\\\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\\\"><p>\\n<\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cWhether we return to the ATH at $69,000 or not depends on actual inflows into the ETF in the first weeks of trading. If they are insufficient, a classic &#8216;selling on the news&#8217; may occur,\u201d<\/em> \u2014 they explained.<\/p>\n<p>\\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, <span data-descr=\\\"U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission\\\" class=\\\"old_tooltip\\\">SEC<\/span> began collecting public comments on spot Bitcoin ETFs. Lawyer Scott Johnson saw in this a signal that the regulator is ready to approve all applications for the instrument by <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/sec-opens-comment-period-on-spot-bitcoin-etf\">January 10, 2024<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<p>This view is shared by Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart. The analyst identified a window for potential approval of the product from January 5 to January 10.<\/p>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\\\"twitter-tweet\\\">\n<p lang=\\\"en\\\" dir=\\\"ltr\\\">Okay the window for potential spot <a href=\\\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\\\">#Bitcoin<\/a> ETF approval is looking like its gonna be between Jan 5 &#038; Jan 10 2024. I spoke with <a href=\\\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/thomasg_grizzle?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\\\">@thomasg_grizzle<\/a> &#038; <a href=\\\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ScottW_Grizzle?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\\\">@ScottW_Grizzle<\/a> this morning and nailed this call. <a href=\\\"https:\/\/t.co\/sOU950QlXj\\\">https:\/\/t.co\/sOU950QlXj<\/a> <a href=\\\"https:\/\/t.co\/y9JYdEpjNH\\\">pic.twitter.com\/y9JYdEpjNH<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 James Seyffart (@JSeyff) <a href=\\\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JSeyff\/status\/1730327792066195501?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\\\">November 30, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\\\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\\\" charset=\\\"utf-8\\\"><\/script>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<p>According to K33 Research, CME data on annual premiums in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures above 17% and record open interest indicate no profit-taking by institutional investors.<\/p>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<figure class=\\\"wp-block-image size-full\\\"><img decoding=\\\"async\\\" src=\\\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-679.webp\\\" alt=\\\"2-679\\\" class=\\\"wp-image-221597\\\"\/><figcaption class=\\\"wp-element-caption\\\">Source: K33 Research.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<p>Experts noted a lack of enthusiasm among retail traders. Bitcoin&#8217;s 164% year-to-date jump has not led to a meaningful rise in traffic and trading volume on crypto exchanges. Activity is now below levels seen in Q3 2022, they added.<\/p>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<figure class=\\\"wp-block-image size-full\\\"><img decoding=\\\"async\\\" src=\\\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-398.webp\\\" alt=\\\"3-398\\\" class=\\\"wp-image-221598\\\"\/><figcaption class=\\\"wp-element-caption\\\">Traffic to crypto-media sites. Source: K33 Research.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<p>According to The Block, there is no positive trend in the dynamics of search queries for keywords.<\/p>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<figure class=\\\"wp-block-image size-full\\\"><img decoding=\\\"async\\\" src=\\\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-257.webp\\\" alt=\\\"4-257\\\" class=\\\"wp-image-221599\\\"\/><figcaption class=\\\"wp-element-caption\\\">Data: <a href=\\\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/post\/266340\/bitcoin-price-recovery-will-be-significantly-quicker-than-previous-cycles-analysts-say\\\"> The Block<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<p>Observations from K33 Research point to a lack of substantial enthusiasm on offshore crypto-derivative platforms, where funding rates remain barely above zero. Analysts noted that risk appetite \u201chas clearly not reached alarming levels.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\\\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\\\"><p>\\n<\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cThe fact that retail investor participation remains subdued suggests that Bitcoin still has substantial upside potential,\u201d<\/em> \u2014 the report notes.<\/p>\n<p>\\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<p>Glassnode analysts noted that the leading cryptocurrency had entered the <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/glassnode-bitcoin-enters-the-acceleration-phase-of-the-bull-market\">acceleration phase of the bull market<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<p>Earlier Matrixport <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/matrixport-confirms-bitcoin-forecast-to-hit-63000-by-april-2024\">confirmed<\/a> a forecast of Bitcoin rising to $63,000 by April 2024.<\/p>\n<p>\\n\\n<\/p>\n<p>Earlier Blockstream CEO Adam Back <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/adam-back-forecasts-bitcoin-to-hit-100000-in-coming-months\">digital gold to $100,000<\/a> in the coming months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K33 Research: the drawdown in BTC from ATH to 36% indicates a much faster rebound to the all-time high relative to previous cycles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":87949,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1167,1145,1150,1138,1326],"class_list":["post-87948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-k33","tag-market-analysis","tag-news-plus","tag-opinions","tag-qcp-capital"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"18","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87948","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87948"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87948\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87950,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87948\/revisions\/87950"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87949"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}