{"id":85962,"date":"2023-10-19T16:27:09","date_gmt":"2023-10-19T13:27:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=85962"},"modified":"2025-09-13T02:31:13","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T23:31:13","slug":"analysts-outline-features-of-bitcoin-price-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/analysts-outline-features-of-bitcoin-price-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts outline features of Bitcoin price recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The current Bitcoin market structure bears resemblance to the recovery phase after bear-dominated periods in 2016 and 2019, according to Glassnode experts who assessed capital movement between hodlers and speculators.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Capital rotation within digital assets markets occurs both between assets, as well as internally as coins change hands at different acquisition prices. <\/p>\n<p>In this edition, we develop two indicators based off the Realized Cap and NUPL to track this rotation of capital between\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/b3IyMrumLb\">pic.twitter.com\/b3IyMrumLb<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1714285748281819445?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 17, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The realized-capitalization metric tends to plateau or ease during bear markets, as coins find new owners at lower cost.<\/p>\n<p>During this process crypto assets gradually migrate to wallets of long-term investors, where they begin to mature (remaining idle for longer periods).<\/p>\n<p>The trend can be illustrated with <a href=\"https:\/\/academy.glassnode.com\/supply\/hodl\/realized-cap-hodl-waves\">RCap HODL Waves<\/a>, showing changes in the distribution of \u201cwealth\u201d by age groups (as a percentage of realized capitalization).<\/p>\n<p>The tool visualizes changes in market demand and supply as capital rotates:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>During an uptrend, \u201cold\u201d coins are spent and passed from hodlers to new investors (hot bands expand, cold bands contract).<\/li>\n<li>During a downtrend, speculators lose interest and gradually transfer bitcoins to long-term holders (cold bands expand, hot bands contract).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>At present the market has reached equilibrium between the two investor groups. There is a small positive inflow of new participants. This situation occurred in 2016 and 2019 when prices attempted to recover after a substantial drawdown.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-793-1024x589.png\" alt=\"1-793\" class=\"wp-image-218356\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-793-1024x589.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-793-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-793-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-793-1536x884.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-793.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Analysts highlighted distinct age groups. They focused primarily on coins held for at least three years. This category accounts for less than 5% of \u201cwealth\u201d \u2014 most Bitcoins were acquired in 2018\u20132020.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-642-1024x589.png\" alt=\"2-642\" class=\"wp-image-218358\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-642-1024x589.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-642-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-642-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-642-1536x884.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-642.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>In a subsequent step, experts identified a cycle-sensitive sub-group of long-term investors who were active during 2020\u201323. These participants bought coins six months to three years ago.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, holdings of this category reach extremes, often coinciding with bear-market lows and bull-market highs.<\/p>\n<p>The peak volume of capital held within the one-to-two-year age band often coincides with the bear market\u2019s deepest points, when accumulation by the most convinced hodlers is at its strongest. This dynamic helps establish a market floor.<\/p>\n<p>And conversely: capital belonging to this category reaches a minimum near bull-market highs as long-term investors exert maximum pressure on distribution and, in turn, dampen rising demand.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-380-1024x589.png\" alt=\"3-380\" class=\"wp-image-218359\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-380-1024x589.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-380-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-380-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-380-1536x884.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-380.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The youngest age groups are more closely linked to demand inflows, as they are actively traded coins that recently changed hands. Their dynamics are the opposite of the previous: the \u201cwidth\u201d expands during uptrends (new buyers) and contracts during bear markets as interest wanes.<\/p>\n<p>The category under one month is especially sensitive. It is the natural counterpart to the 1\u20132 year group. Both are characterised by roughly similar behaviour.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-243-1024x589.png\" alt=\"4-243\" class=\"wp-image-218360\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-243-1024x589.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-243-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-243-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-243-1536x884.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-243.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>To assess capital rotation, analysts highlighted two dominant groups:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Short-term holders<\/li>\n<li>Long-term holders<\/li>\n<li>Market as a whole<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In the diagram below, periods are shown when the spot price falls below the purchase level across all defined groups, reflecting a zone of acute financial instability. <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-62-1024x589.png\" alt=\"7-62\" class=\"wp-image-218363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-62-1024x589.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-62-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-62-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-62-1536x884.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-62.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Another instrument for quantifying unrealized losses is the use of the Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss (NUPL).<\/p>\n<p>The chart below indicates positive results for hodlers and for the market as a whole. For speculators, the metric is near neutral. Proximity to break-even suggests the level at $28,000.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/8-47-1024x589.png\" alt=\"8-47\" class=\"wp-image-218364\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/8-47-1024x589.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/8-47-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/8-47-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/8-47-1536x883.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/8-47.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>In conclusion, analysts proposed considering NUPL as an indicator for navigating market cycles, based on the shift of coins between existing supply (hodlers) and new demand (speculators).<\/p>\n<p>The corresponding metric? entered the range -0.25 in Q3 2023. As noted earlier, the situation mirrors that observed in 2016 and 2019, and is typical of the recovery phase after bear markets.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/9-42-1024x590.png\" alt=\"9-42\" class=\"wp-image-218365\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/9-42-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/9-42-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/9-42-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/9-42-1536x885.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/9-42.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Earlier, analysts from QCP Capital warned that Bitcoin<a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/qcp-capital-bitcoin-poised-for-decline-despite-hopes-of-etf-approval\"> is expected to fall<\/a> despite hopes for approval<a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\"> ETF<\/a> by year-end.<\/p>\n<p>CryptoQuant analysts also forecast that, if the product is approved, the cryptocurrency market capitalization <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/cryptoquant-spot-bitcoin-etf-approval-would-push-bitcoin-to-50000-73000\">could surge to $1 trillion<\/a>. They also projected Bitcoin\u2019s price to rise to $50,000\u2013$73,000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The current Bitcoin market structure shows similarities to the recovery phase after bear-dominated periods in 2016 and 2019, according to Glassnode experts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":85963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1273,1145,1150,1268,1138],"class_list":["post-85962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-glassnode","tag-market-analysis","tag-news-plus","tag-on-chain-analysis","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"24","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85962"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85962\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":85964,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85962\/revisions\/85964"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}