{"id":85292,"date":"2023-10-03T16:33:02","date_gmt":"2023-10-03T13:33:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=85292"},"modified":"2025-09-12T22:23:25","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T19:23:25","slug":"analysts-weigh-the-odds-of-a-fresh-rally-in-the-crypto-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/analysts-weigh-the-odds-of-a-fresh-rally-in-the-crypto-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts weigh the odds of a fresh rally in the crypto market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s rise of an astonishing 9% <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-clears-the-28000-level\">over the previous three days<\/a> offset the negative close of Q3 (-12%). Analysts at QCP Capital warned that the odds of retesting $25,000 should not be ruled out, despite the favorable seasonality.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">QCP Capital is not optimistic about the sustainability of the recent rise and stated that BTC may test the critical support level of 25k in the last quarter of 2023, the approved futures Ethereum ETF may divert demand from the spot market, the lower-than-expected core PCE\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WuBlockchain\/status\/1708873780037349455?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to the data, over the past eight years Bitcoin has finished October with losses only in 2018. In other years, gains ranged from 5.5% to 48.5%.<\/p>\n<p>With November\u2013December in view, the picture looks less rosy \u2014 in Q4 2018 the digital gold fell by almost half, but the year before it had risen by 142.2%.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2023-10-02_18-31-57.webp\" alt=\"photo_2023-10-02_18-31-57\" class=\"wp-image-217110\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: QCP Capital.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Experts offered four arguments in favour of a forecast of a return to $25,000:<\/p>\n<p>1. So far, this aggressive rebound has been driven almost entirely by external factors such as expectations for the upcoming <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/launch-of-ethereum-futures-etfs-whos-already-in-the-race\">approval of the first Ethereum futures ETF<\/a>, the slowing <span data-descr=\"Core PCE\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Core PCE<\/span>, and, at least for the next 45 days, the shutdown being averted. Experts questioned whether there was any additional &#8216;fuel&#8217;.<\/p>\n<p>2. Expectations of negative momentum for Ethereum futures ETFs based on the behavior of similar <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/trading-starts-for-proshares-first-us-bitcoin-futures-etf\">Bitcoin-based instruments<\/a> two years ago.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2023-10-02_18-32-07.webp\" alt=\"photo_2023-10-02_18-32-07\" class=\"wp-image-217111\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: QCP Capital.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The reason \u2014 there is no direct spillover from demand for the new asset into the spot supply. In fact, the ETF is said to be \u201cabsorbing\u201d purchases of physical cryptocurrency, the analysts noted.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"733\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2023-10-02_18-32-15-1024x733.jpg\" alt=\"photo_2023-10-02_18-32-15\" class=\"wp-image-217112\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2023-10-02_18-32-15-1024x733.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2023-10-02_18-32-15-300x215.jpg 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2023-10-02_18-32-15-768x550.jpg 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2023-10-02_18-32-15.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: QCP Capital.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>3. While continued government funding is positive in the near term, it raises the risk of a shutdown after the 45-day period expires.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u00abWe think a government shutdown would be the best mid-term solution for markets, since we have established an acceptable price floor in light of discussions on this topic\u00bb<\/em> \u2014 the analysts said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Historically since 1995 there have been five shutdowns during which the S&#038;P 500 rose on average by 3.2%. During the last one (the longest shutdown in 30 years), stocks rose more than 10% as the situation was resolved.<\/p>\n<p>4. Gold and real yields on US Treasuries are leading. If a deal between Republicans and Democrats again spurs a rise in the latter, risk assets would face far greater pain.<\/p>\n<p>Should the Nasdaq 100 break through 14,500 or the S&#038;P 500 through 4,250, Bitcoin would not fail to take notice.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"666\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2023-10-02_18-32-27-1024x666.jpg\" alt=\"photo_2023-10-02_18-32-27\" class=\"wp-image-217113\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2023-10-02_18-32-27-1024x666.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2023-10-02_18-32-27-300x195.jpg 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2023-10-02_18-32-27-768x500.jpg 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2023-10-02_18-32-27.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: QCP Capital.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u00abWe are using this rally to buy hedges on the downside. We expect resistance at $29 000-30 000 to form a ceiling. The options market still offers a \u2018cheap\u2019 opportunity to participate in any sharp downturn\u00bb<\/em> \u2014 the analysts said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Against the backdrop of news that the shutdown was averted, traders liquidated short positions in crypto derivatives worth $94 million \u2014 the largest monthly total.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-643.webp\" alt=\"image-643\" class=\"wp-image-217109\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/ru\/LiquidationData\"> Coinglass<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Macro analyst Noel Acheson<a href=\"https:\/\/blockworks.co\/news\/october-market-crypto-short-positions-liquidated\"> \u043e\u0442\u043c\u0435\u0442\u0438\u043b\u0430<\/a> that the data above are reassuring, especially in light of Uptober expectations, but do not alter her views on the fragility of the latest upside move.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u00abOver the past several months we have seen a number of such sharp moves. Usually they are followed by a correction, sometimes sharp, sometimes gradual, but almost always returning to the level the market was at before the upside move\u00bb<\/em> \u2014 she said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>As noted earlier, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes allowed for a possible brief drop below $20,000 followed by a <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/analyst-forecasts-bitcoin-to-rise-to-50000-ahead-of-the-halving\">new bullish impulse<\/a>. However, in September he pointed to <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/arthur-hayes-points-to-positive-bitcoin-prospects-despite-fed-policy\">positive prospects<\/a> for digital gold despite the policy of the <span data-descr=\"Federal Reserve\" class=\"old_tooltip\">\u0424\u0420\u0421<\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>QCP Capital: BTC rose by an astonishing 9% over the previous three days, offsetting the negative close of Q3 (-12%), but a retest of $25,000 cannot be ruled out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":85293,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1224,1145,1150,1138,1326],"class_list":["post-85292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-macroeconomics","tag-market-analysis","tag-news-plus","tag-opinions","tag-qcp-capital"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"21","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85292","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85292"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85292\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":85294,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85292\/revisions\/85294"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85293"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85292"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85292"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85292"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}