{"id":84962,"date":"2023-09-25T14:04:43","date_gmt":"2023-09-25T11:04:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=84962"},"modified":"2025-09-12T20:30:04","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T17:30:04","slug":"rising-us-government-bond-yields-dampen-bitcoins-appeal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/rising-us-government-bond-yields-dampen-bitcoins-appeal\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising US government-bond yields dampen Bitcoin&#8217;s appeal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since the start of the third quarter, the leading cryptocurrency and the S&#038;P 500 have fallen by 14% and 3%, respectively. The reason lies in rising yields on risk-free U.S. government bonds, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2023\/09\/25\/bitcoin-and-sp-500-eye-quarterly-loss-as-bonds-look-most-attractive-since-2009\/\">CoinDesk<\/a> reports.<\/p>\n<p>The equity risk premium\u2014the difference between the earnings yield of the components of the S&#038;P 500 relative to their prices and the yield on <span data-descr=\"US 10-year Treasuries\" class=\"old_tooltip\">UST 10Y<\/span>\u2014fell to -0.58, the lowest since 2009. Since 2008, the metric has averaged about 3.5 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p>If dividend yield is considered alone, the gap with the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield narrowed to -2.87 percentage points, the lowest since July 2007.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, the appeal of investing in equities and other risk assets has dimmed in the face of the much higher yields on U.S. Treasuries, regarded as safe-haven assets.<\/p>\n<p>Such a situation also implies less incentive to invest in Bitcoin, if it is viewed as analogous to technology stocks.<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Snimok-ekrana-2023-09-25-v-13.56.17.webp\" alt=\"Snimok-ekrana-2023-09-25-v-13.56.17\" class=\"wp-image-216537\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: TradingView, CoinDesk.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Against a backdrop of Bitcoin&#8217;s resilience, Bitcoin&#8217;s correlation with the U.S. dollar has fallen to zero, while correlations with the major stock indices have become mildly negative.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin&#8217;s correlation with the US Dollar Index has hit a remarkable milestone\u2014zero. Interestingly, there is currently almost no correlation with any of the major indices. As Bitcoin charts its own course, the question arises: is this a bullish or bearish signal?<br \/>Explore More\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/M5IzB6nux6\">pic.twitter.com\/M5IzB6nux6<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intotheblock\/status\/1704789623958876352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 21, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to Lucas Outumuro of IntoTheBlock, the resilience of digital gold is explained by positive <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bloomberg-analysts-raise-odds-of-a-spot-bitcoin-etf-this-year-to-75\">launch expectations<\/a> of a spot Bitcoin-<a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETF<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/mt-gox-pushes-back-compensation-deadline-by-a-year\">the transfer of compensation payments<\/a> to Mt.Gox clients.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>The trend appears to signal a forthcoming bullish cycle. While it&#8217;s unclear how long this will last in a deteriorating macroeconomic environment, on-chain data show further accumulation by hodlers,<\/em> \u2014 said the expert.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In ABMCrypto, citing NVT, aSORP and CDD metrics, they noted a lack of bear activity. The technical setup, in RSI, Chaikin Money Flow and MACD, suggests a chance of resuming positive momentum after some consolidation, journalists added.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"440\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Snimok-ekrana-2023-09-25-v-13.57.28-1024x440.png\" alt=\"Snimok-ekrana-2023-09-25-v-13.57.28\" class=\"wp-image-216538\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Snimok-ekrana-2023-09-25-v-13.57.28-1024x440.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Snimok-ekrana-2023-09-25-v-13.57.28-300x129.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Snimok-ekrana-2023-09-25-v-13.57.28-768x330.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Snimok-ekrana-2023-09-25-v-13.57.28.png 1160w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: TradingView, ABMCrypto.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Despite Uptober looming over risk assets, the prospect of a government shutdown due to budget disagreements weighs on markets.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Major October Catalysts (Part 2)<\/p>\n<p>Predictive markets now anticipate a 70% of a Government Shutdown on October 2. <\/p>\n<p>Millions of federal workers face delayed paychecks when the government shuts down, including many of the roughly 2 million military personnel and more than 2 million\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XTrt0g06t2\">pic.twitter.com\/XTrt0g06t2<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Joe Carlasare (@JoeCarlasare) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JoeCarlasare\/status\/1706006469773025679?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 24, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>Markets now expect a government shutdown on October 2 with more than 70% probability,<\/em> \u2014 said Joe Carlasare, a partner at SmithAmundsen LLC.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes allowed for a possible brief dip below $20,000 followed by a <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/analyst-forecasts-bitcoin-to-rise-to-50000-ahead-of-the-halving\">new bullish impulse<\/a>. However, in September he pointed to <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/arthur-hayes-points-to-positive-bitcoin-prospects-despite-fed-policy\">positive prospects<\/a> for digital gold despite the policy of the <span data-descr=\"U.S. Federal Reserve\" class=\"old_tooltip\">the Fed<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Rick Edelman, founder of Edelman Financial Engines, forecast that the price of the leading cryptocurrency would rise to <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/expert-forecasts-bitcoin-to-reach-150000\">$150,000<\/a> by the summer of 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since the start of the third quarter, the leading cryptocurrency and the S&#038;P 500 have fallen by 14% and 3%, respectively. The reason lies in rising yields on risk-free U.S. government bonds, CoinDesk reports.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":84963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1224,1150,1138,1211],"class_list":["post-84962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-macroeconomics","tag-news-plus","tag-opinions","tag-stock-market"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"17","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84962"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84962\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84964,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84962\/revisions\/84964"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}