{"id":72624,"date":"2023-01-17T13:22:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-17T11:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=72624"},"modified":"2025-09-09T09:25:37","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T06:25:37","slug":"glassnode-flags-a-probable-local-maximum-for-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/glassnode-flags-a-probable-local-maximum-for-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Glassnode flags a probable local maximum for Bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-price-tests-the-21000-level\">&#8220;Explosive&#8221; rally<\/a> of Bitcoin at the start of the year wiped out investors&#8217; and miners&#8217; &#8216;paper&#8217; losses and, at the same time, called into question the continuation of the positive momentum, according to on-chain metrics. Glassnode analysts concluded this.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">After one of the least volatile months in history, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> has seen an explosive rally back above $21k. <\/p>\n<p>In our latest piece, we analyse the rally and the key pricing and valuation models <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> has broken above.<\/p>\n<p>Read more in The Week On-chain \ud83d\udc47<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4PyCTob551\">https:\/\/t.co\/4PyCTob551<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1615001064574443523?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 16, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/sopr-finding-bitcoins-highs-and-lows\">aSOPR<\/a> indicator approached testing resistance at the 1.0 level, the breach of which followed by a retest could signal the end of the bear trend. This would indicate sufficient demand to absorb selling pressure from profit-taking.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/content\/images\/2023\/01\/10_aSOPR.png\" alt=\"Glassnode points to a probable local maximum for Bitcoin\"\/><figcaption>Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A similar conclusion was drawn by analysts based on realized losses\/profits in dollar terms. Over the past week the indicator breached a significant 1.0 threshold.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/content\/images\/2023\/01\/11_realized_pnl.png\" alt=\"Glassnode points to a probable local maximum for Bitcoin\"\/><figcaption>Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Resistance can also be identified from a technical-analysis perspective. Experts noted the price crossing above the 200-day simple moving average from below to above near $19,500. For 381 days prior, the quotes traded below this mark.<\/p>\n<p>In the previous bear cycle of 2018-2019, such a period lasted five days longer.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/content\/images\/2023\/01\/02_mayermultiple.png\" alt=\"Glassnode points to a probable local maximum for Bitcoin\"\/><figcaption>Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The current bear phase was the second-longest, in the context of the ratio of current to realized price ($19 700 at the time of writing). It lasted 179 days, trailing only the 2015 events (301 days).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/content\/images\/2023\/01\/03_realized_price.png\" alt=\"Glassnode points to a probable local maximum for Bitcoin\"\/><figcaption>Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>When decomposing realized price into its components among speculators ($18 000) and hodlers ($22 400), analysts noted the convergence of indicators with the current market value, reflecting a large volume of &#8220;traded&#8221; coins following the <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/ftx-group-files-for-bankruptcy-sam-bankman-fried-resigns-as-ceo\">FTX collapse<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/content\/images\/2023\/01\/04_lthsth_realized.png\" alt=\"Glassnode points to a probable local maximum for Bitcoin\" width=\"840\" height=\"483\"\/><figcaption>Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The situation has also improved for miners. A regression model linking Bitcoin\u2019s price and mining difficulty indicates an average cost of mining 1 BTC at about $18,795.<\/p>\n<p>An alternative view from comparing difficulty with coin issuance suggests potential renewed stress among this market segment if the price falls below $17,062. For the most efficient miners, the threshold sits at $12,505.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/content\/images\/2023\/01\/06_diffperissuance.png\" alt=\"Glassnode points to a probable local maximum for Bitcoin\" width=\"840\" height=\"483\"\/><figcaption>Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As a reminder, in December, Nansen analysts, in their base-case for 2023, named a new wave of stock-market sell-offs amid an economic recession. They warned that in these conditions cryptocurrencies <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/nansen-warns-of-risks-of-continued-bearish-momentum-in-cryptocurrencies\">will be subject to negative re-pricing<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p> Read ForkLog&#8217;s bitcoin-news on our <a href=\"\/\/telegram.me\/forklog\u201d\" target=\"\u201c_blank\u201d\" rel=\"\u201cnofollow\u201d noopener\">Telegram<\/a> \u2014 cryptocurrency news, prices and analytics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Explosive&#8221; rally in Bitcoin at the start of the year wiped out investors&#8217; and miners&#8217; &#8220;paper&#8221; losses and, at the same time, called into question the continuation of the positive momentum, according to on-chain metrics. Glassnode analysts concluded this.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":72625,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1273,1145],"class_list":["post-72624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-glassnode","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"34","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72624"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72624\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":72626,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72624\/revisions\/72626"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}