{"id":69383,"date":"2022-11-01T12:21:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-01T10:21:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=69383"},"modified":"2025-09-07T19:41:54","modified_gmt":"2025-09-07T16:41:54","slug":"analysts-forecast-bitcoin-consolidation-in-a-16500-21100-range","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/analysts-forecast-bitcoin-consolidation-in-a-16500-21100-range\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts forecast Bitcoin consolidation in a $16,500\u2013$21,100 range"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The price of the first cryptocurrency remains in the range of $16,500\u2013$21,100, reflecting a fragile balance of supply and demand. On-chain indicators signal that there is no shift in initiative from bears to bulls and a risk of a new wave of coin redistribution, according to Glassnode analysts.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> has rallied back above the key $20k psychological level after many months of low volatility.<\/p>\n<p>In this edition, we analyze how Bitcoin may be hammering out a near-textbook bear market floor and what risks may lay on the road ahead.<\/p>\n<p>Read it here \ud83d\udc47<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WrsifLhxHC\">https:\/\/t.co\/WrsifLhxHC<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1587118144287608836?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 31, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Experts stressed that the formation of a bottom in 2022 could continue if one looks at how long this process lasted in the past.<\/p>\n<p>At present, the quotes for digital gold remain trapped between the <span data-descr=\"ratio of realized capitalization to current supply\" class=\"old_tooltip\">realized price<\/span> ($21,100) and <a href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/metrics?a=BTC&#038;m=indicators.BalancedPriceUsd\">balanced price<\/a> ($16,500) over the last three months. In 2014\u20132015 and 2018\u20132019, this period lasted 10 and 5.5 months respectively.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-750-1024x590.png\" alt=\"Analysts forecast Bitcoin consolidation in the range $16,500\u2013$21,100\" class=\"wp-image-189408\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-750-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-750-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-750-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-750-1536x885.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-750.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The duration of hodlers\u2019 capitulation period may also provide a useful signal for turning onto a growth trajectory. The last such period occurs when the average cost basis of coins purchased by this group falls below the price realized. In other words, long-term investors start to be \u201closing\u201d to the \u201caverage\u201d investor, according to the analysts.<\/p>\n<p>Currently, that period lasts 3.5 months. In the two previous bear markets, it reached 8 and 17 months.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"591\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-610-1024x591.png\" alt=\"Analysts forecast Bitcoin consolidation in the range $16,500\u2013$21,100\" class=\"wp-image-189409\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-610-1024x591.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-610-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-610-768x444.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-610-1536x887.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-610.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>A similar signal can be assessed not only from unrealised profits and losses but also from the financial outcome of holders&#8217; spending. The 90-day moving average of this ratio is 0.57. In other words, investors continue to predominantly realise losses.<\/p>\n<p>New waves of capital inflows and profit-taking have not yet surpassed the scale of losses by sellers. The metric remains below 1 for the last 125 days, which is shorter than 375 and 263 days in the previous bear markets.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-231-1024x589.png\" alt=\"Analysts forecast Bitcoin consolidation in the range $16,500\u2013$21,100\" class=\"wp-image-189411\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-231-1024x589.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-231-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-231-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-231-1536x884.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-231.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Recall, in October Glassnode<a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/glassnode-weighs-bullish-and-bearish-scenarios-for-bitcoin\"> considered<\/a> bullish and bearish scenarios for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier trader Tone Vays forecast the price of the first cryptocurrency <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/tone-vays-forecasts-bitcoin-to-reach-100000-in-2023\">to $100,000 in 2023<\/a> on the backdrop of the approaching <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving\">halving<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p> Read ForkLog&#8217;s Bitcoin news on our <a href=\"\/\/telegram.me\/forklog\u201d\" target=\"\u201c_blank\u201d\" rel=\"\u201cnofollow\u201d noopener\">Telegram<\/a> \u2014 cryptocurrency news, rates and analytics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The price of the first cryptocurrency remains in the range of $16,500\u2013$21,100, reflecting a fragile balance of supply and demand. On-chain indicators signal that there is no shift in initiative from bears to bulls and a risk of a new wave of coin redistribution, according to Glassnode analysts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":69384,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1273,1145],"class_list":["post-69383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-glassnode","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"17","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69383"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69383\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69385,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69383\/revisions\/69385"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/69384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}