{"id":68086,"date":"2022-10-04T17:10:00","date_gmt":"2022-10-04T14:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=68086"},"modified":"2025-09-07T12:08:27","modified_gmt":"2025-09-07T09:08:27","slug":"analysts-peg-miners-pain-threshold-at-18300","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/analysts-peg-miners-pain-threshold-at-18300\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts peg miners&#8217; &#8216;pain threshold&#8217; at $18,300"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>78,400 BTC could be at risk of liquidation if Bitcoin&#8217;s price falls below $18,300, a level implied by a regression model of mining difficulty. Such estimates were obtained by Glassnode analysts.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">As global equity and bond markets continue to tread challenging ground, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> hashrate defies the odds, pushing to yet another all-time high.<\/p>\n<p>This week, we deep dive into <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> mining to assess if the worst of the capitulation is over, or not.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Lv9ObN5XO6\">https:\/\/t.co\/Lv9ObN5XO6<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1576903694364336133?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 3, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Experts noted an increasing likelihood of heightened volatility after a prolonged period of consolidation in the $18,000-$20,000 range. The latter has historically been atypical for the leading cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n<p>Against price stability, metrics related to<a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/how-bitcoin-mining-works\">mining<\/a> have improved, signaling a brighter conjuncture in the coming months. In particular, the hashrate reached a record 242 EH\/s. The figure equates to roughly 7.753 billion people hashing SHA-256 at once, according to the analysts.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-734-1024x589.png\" alt=\"Analysts peg miners' 'pain threshold' at $18,300\" class=\"wp-image-186736\" width=\"840\" height=\"483\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-734-1024x589.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-734-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-734-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-734-1536x884.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-734.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Growth in computing power is driven by the deployment of the most efficient ASIC devices. This is reflected in the revenue per EH\/s (4.06 BTC).<\/p>\n<p>In dollar terms, it ranges from $78,000 to $88,000. The last time such values were observed was after the halving in October 2020, when Bitcoin traded about half as high as today (around $10,000).<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-593-1024x589.png\" alt=\"Analysts peg miners' 'pain threshold' at $18,300\" class=\"wp-image-186738\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-593-1024x589.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-593-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-593-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-593-1536x884.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-593.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The logarithmic regression between difficulty and market capitalisation, with an R-squared of 0.944, shows that the sector-wide breakeven level for Bitcoin mining stands at $18,300. The figure is only marginally above the June low of $17,840.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-356-1024x589.png\" alt=\"Analysts peg miners' 'pain threshold' at $18,300\" class=\"wp-image-186739\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-356-1024x589.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-356-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-356-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-356-1536x884.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-356.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>On miners&#8217; balance sheets, which account for 96% of the current hashrate, 78,400 BTC are concentrated \u2014 the maximum number of coins that could be pushed into selling in a stress scenario for this class of market participants.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-224-1024x590.png\" alt=\"Analysts peg miners' 'pain threshold' at $18,300\" class=\"wp-image-186740\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-224-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-224-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-224-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-224-1536x885.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-224.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Against Bitcoin&#8217;s current stabilisation, analysts noted a slowdown in miners&#8217; monthly coin distributions \u2014 down to 4,400 BTC, about half of September&#8217;s peak.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-139-1024x590.png\" alt=\"Analysts peg miners' 'pain threshold' at $18,300\" class=\"wp-image-186741\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-139-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-139-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-139-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-139-1536x885.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-139.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Analysts note that the bulk of sales are carried out by miners tied to the Poolin pool. In September, representatives of this company<a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/poolin-bitcoin-mining-pool-acknowledges-liquidity-problems\">acknowledged<\/a> liquidity problems.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-98-1024x590.png\" alt=\"Analysts peg miners' 'pain threshold' at $18,300\" class=\"wp-image-186742\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-98-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-98-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-98-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-98-1536x885.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-98.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In late July, Bitcoin mining difficulty<a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-falls-for-the-first-time-since-july\"> fell<\/a> for the first time since July.<\/p>\n<p>In September, Arcane Research analysts found that the vast majority of publicly listed mining companies <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/study-finds-publicly-listed-mining-companies-posted-losses-amid-crypto-winter\">suffered losses<\/a> due to crypto-winter.<\/p>\n<p>In June, experts noted that the profitability from Bitcoin mining <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/arcane-research-bitcoin-mining-profitability-falls-to-2020-levels\">had fallen to 2020 levels<\/a>. Later they concluded that publicly listed companies in the industry <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/arcane-research-notes-resilient-finances-among-public-miners\">have maintained financial resilience<\/a>, despite unfavourable market conditions.<\/p>\n<p> Read ForkLog&#8217;s Bitcoin news in our <a href=\"\/\/telegram.me\/forklog\" target=\"\"_blank\"\" rel=\"\"nofollow\" noopener\">Telegram<\/a> \u2014 cryptocurrency news, rates and analytics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>78,400 BTC could be at risk of liquidation if Bitcoin&#8217;s price falls below $18,300, according to Glassnode&#8217;s regression model of mining difficulty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":68087,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1137,1273,1145],"class_list":["post-68086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-cryptocurrency-mining","tag-glassnode","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"22","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68086","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68086"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68086\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":68088,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68086\/revisions\/68088"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68087"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68086"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}