{"id":64542,"date":"2022-07-18T17:56:36","date_gmt":"2022-07-18T14:56:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=64542"},"modified":"2025-09-06T15:03:36","modified_gmt":"2025-09-06T12:03:36","slug":"grayscale-sees-crypto-winter-ending-by-end-march-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/grayscale-sees-crypto-winter-ending-by-end-march-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Grayscale sees crypto-winter ending by end-March 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The bear phase of Bitcoin is expected to end in about 250 days if the market cycle repeats, according to Grayscale Investments analysts.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">The length, range, and recovery time of past market cycles may hold important lessons for our present cycle. Read the latest report from <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mattmaximo1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Mattmaximo1<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mzhao8?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@mzhao8<\/a> to learn more: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/N81LZ4awoz\">https:\/\/t.co\/N81LZ4awoz<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Grayscale (@Grayscale) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Grayscale\/status\/1548325742269779975?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 16, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Analysts estimate that Bitcoin cycles last about four years, or roughly 1,275 days on average.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"784\" height=\"451\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-691.png\" alt=\"Grayscale sees crypto-winter ending by end-March 2023\" class=\"wp-image-179232\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-691.png 784w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-691-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-691-768x442.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 784px) 100vw, 784px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Grayscale Investments.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The trigger for entering the bear phase is a realized price falling below the market price. This concerns the MVRV indicator, which ForkLog discussed in its <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.news\/cryptorium\/chto-takoe-indikator-mvrv\/\">cards<\/a>. In March 2021, experts excluded the signal from consideration, citing the shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>The last time the realized price fell below the market price occurred on June 13, 2022. Historically, this condition lasted an average of 250 days. By July 12, 2022, only 21 days had passed since the start of the phase.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-562.png\" alt=\"Grayscale sees crypto-winter ending by end-March 2023\" class=\"wp-image-179233\" width=\"770\" height=\"365\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-562.png 770w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-562-300x142.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-562-768x364.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 770px) 100vw, 770px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Grayscale Investments.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>According to historical data, Bitcoin\u2019s bull phases have tended to last longer. If in 2012 the market took 603 days to reach a peak, in 2016 and 2020 the durations were 786 and 952 days, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>With each successive iteration, the duration lengthened by about 180 days. Analysts linked this to the market\u2019s increasing maturity.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"777\" height=\"656\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-338.png\" alt=\"Grayscale sees crypto-winter ending by end-March 2023\" class=\"wp-image-179234\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-338.png 777w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-338-300x253.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-338-768x648.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 777px) 100vw, 777px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Grayscale Investments.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Overall, for forming the full cycle from 2012 to 2016, Bitcoin took roughly four years (about 1,290 and 1,257 days in those cases, respectively). It took 391 and 364 days to fall 73% from the peak in 2012 and 84% in 2016.<\/p>\n<p>The duration of the current 2020 cycle reached 1,198 days as of July 12, 2022. In other words, another roughly four months may pass before the realized price exceeds the market price.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"765\" height=\"288\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-216.png\" alt=\"Grayscale sees crypto-winter ending by end-March 2023\" class=\"wp-image-179235\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-216.png 765w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-216-300x113.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 765px) 100vw, 765px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Grayscale Investments.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The record high was reached 222 days ago. This implies another five to six months of downward or sideways price movement. Historically, market bottoms have occurred a month earlier each time, the analysts explained.<\/p>\n<p>Provided that <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/what-is-technical-analysis\"> repetition of market history<\/a>, the current levels present a favorable opportunity for long-term investors to open positions, Grayscale Investments concluded.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-disclamer article_disclamer\"><span class=\"gtb_text-wrappers_disclamer_head\">Disclaimer<\/span><\/p>\n<p>ForkLog is not responsible for readers&#8217; investment decisions.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>As reported in Bloomberg&#8217;s poll earlier, Bitcoin&#8217;s price is more likely to fall to $10,000 than to return to $30,000.<\/p>\n<p>In July, the agency&#8217;s strategist Mike McGlone forecast Bitcoin would rise in the next six months.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, Rockefeller International head Ruchir Sharma noted that Bitcoin must shed excess leverage to regain resilience.<\/p>\n<p>Read ForkLog&#8217;s Bitcoin news on our Telegram \u2014 news on cryptocurrencies, prices and analytics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The bear phase of Bitcoin is expected to end in about 250 days if the market cycle repeats, according to Grayscale Investments analysts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":64543,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,943,1138],"class_list":["post-64542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-grayscale-investments","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"58","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64542","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64542"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64542\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64544,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64542\/revisions\/64544"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64543"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64542"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64542"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64542"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}