{"id":63554,"date":"2022-06-28T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-28T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=63554"},"modified":"2025-09-06T09:38:34","modified_gmt":"2025-09-06T06:38:34","slug":"capitulation-phase-when-will-bitcoins-price-resume-its-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/capitulation-phase-when-will-bitcoins-price-resume-its-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin&#8217;s Price Resume Its Rise"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The first half of 2022 was not the best for Bitcoin investors. The price fell 69.2% from the November high. And the second quarter was the worst in the history of digital gold.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"652\" height=\"723\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-Quarters.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177210\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-Quarters.png 652w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-Quarters-271x300.png 271w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 652px) 100vw, 652px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Arcane Research<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The market backdrop hit not only optimistic assets, many of which <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/celsius-network-ceo-forecasts-bitcoin-above-100000-in-2022\">\u0436\u0434\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u0431\u0438\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d \u043f\u043e $100 000<\/a>, but also miners\u2019 revenues. At the current price, legendary Antminer S9s are operating at a loss, and mining cash flow <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/arcane-research-bitcoin-mining-profitability-falls-to-2020-levels\">\u0441\u043e\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u043b\u0441\u044f \u043d\u0430 80%<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Now miners are selling a large portion of the mined cryptocurrency, exerting additional pressure on the price. Many analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/woonomic\/status\/1411250746415206400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1411250746415206400%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&#038;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforklog.com%2Fkogda-vozobnovitsya-rost-tseny-bitkoina-razbiraemsya-s-pomoshhyu-onchejn-indikatorov%2F\">\u0443\u0431\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u044b<\/a>, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043a\u0430\u043f\u0438\u0442\u0443\u043b\u044f\u0446\u0438\u044f \u0434\u043e\u0431\u044b\u0442\u0447\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0432 \u0431\u0438\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d\u0430 \u2014 \u0445\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0448\u0438\u0439 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440 \u0434\u043d\u0430 \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043a\u0430.<\/p>\n<p>ForkLog \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b \u043d\u0430\u0438\u0431\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0435 \u0430\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043e\u043d\u0447\u0435\u0439\u043d-\u043c\u0435\u0442\u0440\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u0438 \u0432\u044b\u044f\u0441\u043d\u0438\u043b, \u0447\u0435\u0433\u043e \u0436\u0434\u0430\u0442\u044c \u043e\u0442 \u0446\u0435\u043d\u044b \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u0440\u0438\u043f\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e\u0442\u044b \u0432 \u043a\u0440\u0430\u0442\u043a\u043e- \u0438 \u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0435\u0441\u0440\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0441\u043f\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u0435.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-keypoints article_keypoints\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u041c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0435 \u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0430\u044e\u0442 \u0441\u0438\u0433\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044b, \u0443\u043a\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u044e\u0449\u0438\u0435 \u043d\u0430 \u0432\u0435\u0440\u043e\u044f\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0432\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0442\u0430\u043d\u043e\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0431\u0438\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d\u0430. \u041d\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u043d\u0446\u0438\u0430\u043b \u0441\u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0434\u043e $10 300. <\/li>\n<li>\u0412\u0441\u043f\u043b\u0435\u0441\u043a \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0442\u043e\u043a\u0430 \u0441\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0432 \u043d\u0430 \u0431\u0438\u0440\u0436\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u0444\u043e\u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0430\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0446\u0435\u043d\u044b \u2014 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0437\u043d\u0430\u043a \u043a\u0430\u043f\u0438\u0442\u0443\u043b\u044f\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u043c\u0430\u0439\u043d\u0435\u0440\u043e\u0432. <\/li>\n<li>\u0410\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437 \u0438\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u0435\u0442, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0434\u043d\u043e \u0446\u0438\u043a\u043b\u0430 \u0435\u0449\u0435 \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442 \u0431\u044b\u0442\u044c \u0432\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u041a\u0430\u043f\u0438\u0442\u0443\u043b\u044f\u0446\u0438\u044f \u043c\u0430\u0439\u043d\u0435\u0440\u043e\u0432<\/h2>\n<p>18 \u0438\u044e\u043d\u044f \u0431\u0438\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d <span class=\"old_tooltip\" data-descr=\"the daily value of mined cryptocurrency per terahash of power\">\u0445\u0435\u0448\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0439\u0441<\/span> \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438\u043b \u0443\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u043d\u044c $20 000. \u042d\u0442\u043e \u0441\u043e\u0431\u044b\u0442\u0438\u0435 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0448\u0438\u043b\u043e \u043c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0445 \u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u043d\u043d\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0432 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437\u0430 \u2014 \u0432\u0435\u0434\u044c \u043d\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0435 \u043a\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0430\u0434\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435 \u0434\u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u044b\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0433\u043e \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0446\u0438\u043a\u043b\u0430.<\/p>\n<p>\u0412 \u0441\u043e\u043e\u0431\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435 \u0437\u0430\u0434\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u044c \u0432\u043e\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u043e\u043c, <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/tech-analyst-pins-next-bitcoin-support-level\">\u0433\u0434\u0435 \u0438\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0438\u0439 \u0443\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0435\u043d\u044c \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0436\u043a\u0438<\/a>. \u0418\u0441\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u0438 Arcane Research \u0441\u043e\u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0430\u0434\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u0440\u0438\u043f\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e\u0442\u044b \u0432 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0448\u043b\u044b\u0445 \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043e\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0446\u0438\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0445 \u0438 <a href=\"https:\/\/arcane.no\/research\">\u043f\u0440\u0438\u0448\u043b\u0438 \u043a \u0432\u044b\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0443<\/a>, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0442\u0435\u043d\u0446\u0438\u0430\u043b \u0441\u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0441\u043e\u0445\u0440\u0430\u043d\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0434\u043e \u043e\u0442\u043c\u0435\u0442\u043a\u0438 $10 350.<\/p>\n<p>\u041c\u043d\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0435 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0432\u043d\u0438\u043c\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043d\u0430 \u043c\u0430\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0436\u0438 \u043c\u0430\u0439\u043d\u0435\u0440\u043e\u0432 \u043d\u0430\u043a\u0430\u043d\u0443\u043d\u0435 \u043e\u0431\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430. \u041e\u0431 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u043c \u0441\u0432\u0438\u0434\u0435\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0443\u0435\u0442 \u0432\u0441\u043f\u043b\u0435\u0441\u043a \u043e\u0431\u044a\u0435\u043c\u0430 \u043a\u0440\u0438\u043f\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e\u0442\u044b, \u043e\u0442\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u043d\u0430 \u0431\u0438\u0440\u0436\u0438 \u0441 \u043a\u043e\u0448\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043a\u043e\u0432 \u043c\u0430\u0439\u043d\u0435\u0440\u043e\u0432.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"377\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-Flows-sent-One-Hop-by-Miners-to-Exch-native-units-1024x377.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177211\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-Flows-sent-One-Hop-by-Miners-to-Exch-native-units-1024x377.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-Flows-sent-One-Hop-by-Miners-to-Exch-native-units-300x110.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-Flows-sent-One-Hop-by-Miners-to-Exch-native-units-768x283.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-Flows-sent-One-Hop-by-Miners-to-Exch-native-units-1536x565.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-Flows-sent-One-Hop-by-Miners-to-Exch-native-units.png 1834w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Dynamic of Bitcoin moved from miners&#8217; wallets to exchanges. Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/charts.coinmetrics.io\/network-data\/\">Coin Metrics<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u0421\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0448\u0438\u0439 \u043e\u043d\u0447\u0435\u0439\u043d-\u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a CryptoQuant \u0425\u0443\u043b\u0438\u043e \u041c\u043e\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043e <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/cryptoquant\/signs-of-bitcoin-miner-capitulation-at-the-bottom-f1c5a7dc4528\">\u043e\u0431\u044a\u044f\u0441\u043d\u044f\u0435\u0442<\/a> \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0443\u044e \u0434\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043c\u0438\u043a\u0443 \u0440\u0435\u0437\u043a\u0438\u043c \u043f\u0430\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c \u0434\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0434\u043e\u0431\u044b\u0447\u0438 \u0431\u0438\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d\u0430. \u041f\u043e \u0435\u0433\u043e \u043d\u0430\u0431\u043b\u044e\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\u043c, \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c <span class=\"old_tooltip\" data-descr=\"the daily value of mined cryptocurrency per terahash of power\" >\u0445\u0435\u0448\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0439\u0441<\/span> \u0441\u043d\u0438\u0437\u0438\u043b\u0441\u044f \u0434\u043e $0,09, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0441\u043e\u043e\u0442\u0432\u0435\u0442\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0443\u0435\u0442 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044f\u043c \u043e\u043a\u0442\u044f\u0431\u0440\u044f 2020 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"362\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-hashprice-1024x362.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177213\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-hashprice-1024x362.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-hashprice-300x106.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-hashprice-768x271.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-hashprice.png 1062w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: CryptoQuant.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u0412 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0432\u043e\u043c \u0438\u0441\u0447\u0438\u0441\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c \u0443\u043f\u0430\u043b \u043d\u0430 60%. \u042d\u0442\u043e, \u043f\u043e \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043c \u041c\u043e\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043e, \u0441\u0430\u043c\u044b\u0439 \u0431\u044b\u0441\u0442\u0440\u044b\u0439 \u0442\u0435\u043c\u043f \u0441\u043d\u0438\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0441\u043e \u0432\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d \u00ab\u043a\u043e\u0440\u043e\u043d\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0440\u0443\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e\u00bb \u043e\u0431\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u043c\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0430 2020 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"365\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-Hashprice2-1024x365.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177214\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-Hashprice2-1024x365.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-Hashprice2-300x107.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-Hashprice2-768x274.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-Hashprice2.png 1053w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Dynamic of Bitcoin price and mining difficulty. Data: CryptoQuant.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u0420\u043e\u0441\u0442 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0436\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0434\u043e\u0431\u044b\u0447\u0438 \u0431\u0438\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d\u0430 \u0443\u0441\u0443\u0433\u0443\u0431\u0438\u043b \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043c\u0430\u0439\u043d\u0435\u0440\u043e\u0432, \u0443\u0432\u0435\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0438\u0432 \u0438\u0445 \u0437\u0430\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0442\u044b.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"365\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-Price-and-Difficulty-1024x365.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177222\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-Price-and-Difficulty-1024x365.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-Price-and-Difficulty-300x107.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-Price-and-Difficulty-768x274.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-Price-and-Difficulty.png 1051w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Dynamic of Bitcoin price and mining difficulty. Data: CryptoQuant.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u0421 \u043d\u0430\u0447\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u0436\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0432\u044b\u0440\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0430 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u0435\u0435 \u0447\u0435\u043c \u043d\u0430 50%. \u0417\u0430 \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0442 \u0436\u0435 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0438\u043e\u0434 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u0430\u044f \u043a\u0440\u0438\u043f\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e\u0442\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0435\u0448\u0435\u0432\u0435\u043b\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0440\u043d\u043e \u0432 \u0434\u0432\u0430 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0430.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cAgainst the backdrop of declining revenue and profits, miners have turned into Bitcoin sellers,\u201d the researcher emphasized.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?19\" data-telegram-post=\"forklog\/26103\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>\u041f\u043e \u043c\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044e \u041c\u043e\u0440\u0435\u043d\u043e, \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0443\u0449\u0438\u0439 \u043e\u0431\u044a\u0435\u043c \u0431\u0438\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d\u043e\u0432, \u043e\u0442\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u043c\u044b\u0439 \u043c\u0430\u0439\u043d\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u0431\u0438\u0440\u0436\u0438, \u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0432\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0434\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043d\u0430 \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043e\u043a.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"644\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-Miner-to-Exchange-Flow-1024x644.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177223\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-Miner-to-Exchange-Flow-1024x644.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-Miner-to-Exchange-Flow-300x189.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-Miner-to-Exchange-Flow-768x483.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-Miner-to-Exchange-Flow.png 1400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Dynamic of the number of Bitcoins transferred from miners&#8217; wallets to exchanges. Data: CryptoQuant.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Only in June miners sent 23,000 BTC to trading\u5e73\u53f0s, the highest monthly figure since May 2021.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cIn a single day some Poolin pool members shipped 5,000 BTC or about $110 million to Binance. This move can indicate that some miners\u2019 revenues are below the profitability threshold. As a result, they have to sell coins to cover costs and service loans,\u201d Moreno wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>According to the expert, the sharp uptick in exchange inflows amid falling prices is a sign of miner capitulation, typically preceding a market bottom.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"482\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-miner-to-exhange-inflows-1024x482.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177224\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-miner-to-exhange-inflows-1024x482.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-miner-to-exhange-inflows-300x141.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-miner-to-exhange-inflows-768x362.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/7-miner-to-exhange-inflows.png 1400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Dynamics of Bitcoin inflows from miners to exchanges, highlighted in red. Data: CryptoQuant.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0427\u0442\u043e \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u0441 \u0446\u0435\u043d\u043e\u0439?<\/h2>\n<p>The Difficulty Ribbon Compression indicator, based on the Difficulty Ribbon metric, has signaled a favorable buying period for Bitcoin since the end of March.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/8-Difficulty-Ribbon-Compression-1024x576.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/8-Difficulty-Ribbon-Compression-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/8-Difficulty-Ribbon-Compression-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/8-Difficulty-Ribbon-Compression-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/8-Difficulty-Ribbon-Compression-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/8-Difficulty-Ribbon-Compression.png 1800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/metrics?a=BTC&#038;category=&#038;m=indicators.DifficultyRibbonCompression&#038;s=1611291444&#038;u=1656115200&#038;zoom=\">Glassnode<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cGreen zone\u201d \u2014 a sign of ribbon compression, indicating capitulation by part of miners. The market remains, for the most part, occupied by the most efficient equipment. They sell less, opening room for price growth.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Another tool \u2014 Hash Ribbons Indicator \u2014 recently signaled the start of capitulation (vertical yellow stripe).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"491\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/9-Hash-Ribbons-Indicator-1024x491.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177226\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/9-Hash-Ribbons-Indicator-1024x491.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/9-Hash-Ribbons-Indicator-300x144.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/9-Hash-Ribbons-Indicator-768x368.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/9-Hash-Ribbons-Indicator.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lookintobitcoin.com\/charts\/hash-ribbons\/\">LookIntoBitcoin<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Dynamic of <span class=\"old_tooltip\" data-descr=\"the daily value of mined cryptocurrency per terahash of power\">HODL waves<\/span> shows a decline in speculative activity among short-term investors. <\/p>\n<p>The indicator <span class=\"old_tooltip\" data-descr=\"the daily value of mined cryptocurrency per terahash of power\">The Puell Multiple<\/span> in early June reached the green zone, signaling Bitcoin is oversold.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/10-hodl-waves-7d-moving-average-1024x576.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177227\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/10-hodl-waves-7d-moving-average-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/10-hodl-waves-7d-moving-average-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/10-hodl-waves-7d-moving-average-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/10-hodl-waves-7d-moving-average-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/10-hodl-waves-7d-moving-average.png 1800w\" sizes=\"auto, \\&quot;auto,\" (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\\\" \/><figcaption>Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/metrics?a=BTC&#038;category=&#038;ema=0&#038;m=supply.RcapHodlWaves&#038;mAvg=7&#038;mMedian=0&#038;s=1492071005&#038;u=1625443200&#038;zoom=\">Glassnode<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>On the chart above, red bands show the percentage of coins that have been in motion recently \u2014 from 1 day to 90-180 days. Since Q1, there has been a decline in the supply from short-term investors. <\/p>\n<p>The indicator <span class=\"old_tooltip\" data-descr=\"The Puell Multiple\">The Puell Multiple<\/span> values in early June reached the green zone, indicating Bitcoin is oversold.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/11-The-Puell-Multiple-1024x576.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177228\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/11-The-Puell-Multiple-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/11-The-Puell-Multiple-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/11-The-Puell-Multiple-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/11-The-Puell-Multiple.png 1800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/metrics?a=BTC&#038;category=&#038;m=indicators.PuellMultiple&#038;s=1577684358&#038;u=1656115200&#038;zoom=\">Glassnode<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>This &#8220;cycle barometer&#8221; is the ratio of the daily on-chain Bitcoin issuance in dollars to the same metric smoothed with a 365-day moving average.<\/p>\n<p>The same signal is shown by the MVRV Z-Score indicator, which is based on the ratio of market capitalization to realized capitalization.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"491\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/12-MVRV-Z-Score--1024x491.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177229\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/12-MVRV-Z-Score--1024x491.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/12-MVRV-Z-Score--300x144.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/12-MVRV-Z-Score--768x368.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/12-MVRV-Z-Score-.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lookintobitcoin.com\/charts\/mvrv-zscore\/\">LookIntoBitcoin<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In the last run, this on-chain tool signaled oversold (and thus a favorable period for long-term purchases) as recently as March 2020. At that time Bitcoin traded below $5,000. <\/p>\n<p>According to data from the indicator NVT Price, the fundamentally justified price of digital gold sits around $44,000. In other words, Bitcoin is significantly undervalued.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"544\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/13-NVT-Price-1024x544.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177230\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/13-NVT-Price-1024x544.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/13-NVT-Price-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/13-NVT-Price-768x408.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/13-NVT-Price.png 1169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/charts.woobull.com\/bitcoin-nvt-price\/\">Woobull Charts<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What does the technical analysis say?<\/h2>\n<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-disclamer article_disclamer\"><span class=\"gtb_text-wrappers_disclamer_head\">Disclaimer<\/span><\/p>\n<p>This material is published solely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. ForkLog bears no responsibility for readers\u2019 investment decisions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>On the chart below, it is visible that the price is trying to hold above the $20,000 level and above the 200-week moving average. The RSI indicator has never reached such a deep oversold level.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"520\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/14-200-week-MA-1024x520.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177232\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/14-200-week-MA-1024x520.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/14-200-week-MA-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/14-200-week-MA-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/14-200-week-MA-1536x780.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/14-200-week-MA.png 1813w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Weekly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Data: TradingView.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The situation for Ethereum is broadly similar. Thus the entire market seems in a suspended state. Support appears fragile, but a high probability of a bullish correction or even a full trend reversal remains.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin price is well below the 200-day moving average (MA 200) \u2014 a kind of boundary between bullish and bearish markets.<\/p>\n<p>The Mayer Multiple indicator, based on MA 200, sits at 0.56, a level above which it has spent 97% of the time.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"377\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/15-Mayer-1024x377.png\" alt=\"Capitulation Phase: When Will Bitcoin's Price Resume Its Rise\" class=\"wp-image-177233\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/15-Mayer-1024x377.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/15-Mayer-300x110.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/15-Mayer-768x283.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/15-Mayer-1536x566.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/15-Mayer.png 1716w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Dynamics of Mayer Multiple. Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com\/mayermultiple\/\">Buy Bitcoin Worldwide<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The average value of the metric since Bitcoin\u2019s appearance is 1.4.<\/p>\n<p>Buying is favorable when the indicator reads below 2.4.<\/p>\n<p>Analyst Matt Roy <span class=\"old_tooltip\" data-descr=\"Fed a market. The Puell Multiple\">sopostav\u0438\u043b<\/span> the Mayer Multiple dynamics with historical Bitcoin investment returns. He concluded that buying the cryptocurrency from current levels may yield \u201cx\u201d returns for patient investors.<\/p>\n<p>According to Roy, if you buy Bitcoin for $1000 from the current metric levels and hold the asset for 60 days, the exit amount would range from $1000 (breakeven) to $2300.<\/p>\n<p>All else equal, holding the asset for 180 days historically yields 1.9x\u201350x. That is, a $1000 investment would be worth between $1800 and $50,000.<\/p>\n<p>An equivalent investment after a year, according to Roy, would turn into $50,000 to $250,000.<\/p>\n<p>The researcher stressed that these calculations are entirely based on historical returns and do not guarantee similarly impressive results in the future.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThe macroeconomic recession has begun; this time everything could be different,\u201d Matt Roy noted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusions<\/h2>\n<p>The current situation is not easy. Unlike previous market cycles, Bitcoin reacts much more sensitively to macroeconomic factors: changes in the Fed&#8217;s rate, the state of the stock market, and geopolitical tensions. <\/p>\n<p>An important element of the picture is large centralized players like <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/how-celsius-3ac-and-steth-problems-could-shape-ethereums-price-and-the-crypto-market\">Celsius and Three Arrows Capital<\/a> (3AC), whose serious problems began with <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/terras-death-spiral-how-and-why-luna-and-ust-collapsed\">Terra collapse<\/a>. Troubles also hit broker Voyager Digital<a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/voyager-digital-trims-daily-withdrawal-limit-amid-3ac-troubles\"> (3AC).<\/a> The problems of these firms exert pressure on the market. And the pace of recovery largely dictates the stabilization of their finances. <\/p>\n<p>On-chain metrics point to oversold conditions and forecast a price reversal for Bitcoin and many correlated crypto assets. Technical indicators also offer moderately optimistic signals. There is no doubt that miner capitulation is in its early stages, usually preceding consolidation and a trend reversal. <\/p>\n<p>However, market participants should view the situation holistically, accounting for various factors. Investors should be cautious, for example using the time-tested dollar-cost averaging method <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/what-is-dollar-cost-averaging\">. This will help reduce volatility risk, especially if, contrary to the indicators, Bitcoin price runs to seek another bottom.<\/p>\n<p>Read ForkLog Bitcoin news in our <a href=\"https:\/\/telegram.me\/forklog\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Telegram<\/a> \u2014 crypto news, rates, and analysis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ForkLog analyzed the most up-to-date on-chain metrics and determined what to expect from Bitcoin&#8217;s price in the short- and medium-term.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":63555,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"5","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1144],"tags":[480,1137,1268],"class_list":["post-63554","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-longreads","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrency-mining","tag-on-chain-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"42","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"5","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63554","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63554"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63554\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63556,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63554\/revisions\/63556"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/63555"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63554"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63554"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63554"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}