{"id":59072,"date":"2022-03-22T15:40:10","date_gmt":"2022-03-22T13:40:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=59072"},"modified":"2025-09-04T20:00:40","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T17:00:40","slug":"glassnode-analysts-warn-of-impending-bitcoin-volatility-spike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/glassnode-analysts-warn-of-impending-bitcoin-volatility-spike\/","title":{"rendered":"Glassnode Analysts Warn of Impending Bitcoin Volatility Spike"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The rise in implied volatility and increasing leverage in the derivatives market point to the likelihood of sharp Bitcoin price swings, Glassnode analysts say.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> has traded into a narrow price range for over 2 months, as more traders move risk neutral cash-and-carry positions.<\/p>\n<p>But derivatives markets are now pricing in a high volatility move just over the horizon.<\/p>\n<p>Read our analysis in The Week On-chain\ud83d\udc47<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cyTLZGqfCU\">https:\/\/t.co\/cyTLZGqfCU<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1505922184476209154?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 21, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Amid the two months of narrow-range trading, implied volatility in the Bitcoin options market has exceeded the 60%-70% price corridor. Earlier, a similar dynamic was observed on the eve of <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/only-twice-was-it-worse-bitcoin-fell-34-5-in-may\">the May 2021 crash<\/a>, the liquidation of shorts <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/daily-liquidation-volume-on-the-crypto-derivatives-market-reached-1-13-billion\">in July<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-price-hits-new-all-time-high-above-67000\">in October<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-638-1024x590.png\" alt=\"Glassnode analysts warn of impending Bitcoin volatility spike\" class=\"wp-image-168265\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-638-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-638-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-638-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-638-1536x885.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-638.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>In the Bitcoin futures market, open interest (OI) reached 1.94% of Bitcoin&#8217;s market capitalization. Previously, crossing the 2% threshold led to a sharp reduction in leverage.<\/p>\n<p>A similar pattern formed in the perpetual contracts market \u2014 OI at 1.28% of BTC&#8217;s total market value has entered the \u201crisk zone\u201d.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-531-1024x590.png\" alt=\"Glassnode analysts warn of impending Bitcoin volatility spike\" class=\"wp-image-168266\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-531-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-531-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-531-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-531-1536x885.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-531.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Experts estimate that the strongest buying activity on the spot market is concentrated in the American and European markets, while selling pressure mainly forms during Asian daytime.<\/p>\n<p>Similar trends have been evident since 2020. Experts attributed Western traders&#8217; reactions to the ultra-dovish monetary policy of the <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve\" class=\"old_tooltip\">\u0424\u0420\u0421<\/span> and the <span data-descr=\"European Central Bank\" class=\"old_tooltip\">\u0415\u0426\u0411<\/span>, which reduced fiat purchasing power. Regarding the dominance of selling by their Asian counterparts, they cited subdued expectations due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the liquidation of longs after aggressive purchases at the market top in October\u2013November 2021.<\/p>\n<p>At the moment on-chain metrics align with a bear market. New Bitcoin addresses are increasing at a pace of ~110,000 per day, indicating a modest rise. A similar pattern is seen in the transactions count indicator: the 14-day moving average sits around 215,000, well below the levels seen in 2019-2020.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-319-1024x590.png\" alt=\"Glassnode analysts warn of impending Bitcoin volatility spike\" class=\"wp-image-168267\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-319-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-319-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-319-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-319-1536x885.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-319.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>By now the share of large transactions (amounts equivalent to $1 million) has risen from the 2021 level of about 50% to the current 65%-70%. In the backdrop of a slowing overall volume, this signals that a bear scenario is being realized, say analysts.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-201-1024x590.png\" alt=\"Glassnode analysts warn of impending Bitcoin volatility spike\" class=\"wp-image-168268\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-201-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-201-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-201-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-201-1536x885.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-201.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Supply of hodlers&#8217; coins has stagnated after the establishment of <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-price-hits-all-time-high-at-69000\">a new all-time high<\/a> in October. Analysts concluded that long-term accumulation by holders was offset by their spending in the subsequent period.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-122-1024x590.png\" alt=\"Glassnode analysts warn of impending Bitcoin volatility spike\" class=\"wp-image-168269\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-122-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-122-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-122-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-122-1536x885.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-122.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Since January the number of coins whose last transactions occurred between three and six months ago has been rising \u2014 potentially moving into hodlers&#8217; territory. During this period, the metric rose by 480,000 BTC, close to the 510,000 BTC accumulated after the March 2020 collapse.<\/p>\n<p>Keeping this trend would indicate a drop in the price sensitivity of this component of Bitcoin&#8217;s supply. For bulls, this would be constructive.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-88-1024x590.png\" alt=\"Glassnode analysts warn of impending Bitcoin volatility spike\" class=\"wp-image-168270\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-88-1024x590.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-88-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-88-768x443.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-88-1536x885.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-88.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-tests-43000-as-ethereum-clears-3000\">tested the $43,000<\/a> level on March 22.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/devere-group-chief-foresees-bitcoin-hitting-50-000-in-march\">Nigel Green, head of DeVere Group,<\/a> predicted Bitcoin to rise to $50,000 during March.<\/p>\n<p> Subscribe to ForkLog news on Telegram: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/forklogfeed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ForkLog Feed<\/a> \u2014 full news feed, <a href=\"https:\/\/telegram.me\/forklog\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ForkLog<\/a> \u2014 the most important news, infographics and opinions <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The rise in implied volatility and higher leverage in the derivatives market point to a likely onset of sharp Bitcoin price swings, according to Glassnode analysts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":59073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1273,1145],"class_list":["post-59072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-glassnode","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"18","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59072","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59072"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59072\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":59074,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59072\/revisions\/59074"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59072"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59072"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59072"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}