{"id":53556,"date":"2021-11-25T15:59:11","date_gmt":"2021-11-25T13:59:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=53556"},"modified":"2025-09-03T15:44:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-03T12:44:00","slug":"huobi-analysts-deem-planbs-stock-to-flow-model-flawed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/huobi-analysts-deem-planbs-stock-to-flow-model-flawed\/","title":{"rendered":"Huobi analysts deem PlanB&#8217;s Stock-to-Flow model flawed."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Huobi analysts deem PlanB&#8217;s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model flawed \u2014 the Bitcoin price in the remaining days of November is unlikely to reach the projected $98,000. According to Huobi analysts, its author PlanB did not account for the normalization of monetary policy <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Huobi Research: Why does the Bitcoin S2F model suddenly fail? PlanB ignored the impact of external macro changes. On the 3rd this month, Federal Reserve FOMC announced the launch of Taper, which means that the turning point of liquidity will be advanced. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/7LuRD102uY\">https:\/\/t.co\/7LuRD102uY<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WuBlockchain\/status\/1463545012671565826?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 24, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>On November 3, the U.S. central bank announced the <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/fed-announces-tapering-of-emergency-stimulus-programme\">start of tapering<\/a> of its monthly purchases of Treasury securities by $10 billion, and of mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion.<\/p>\n<p>If these pace is maintained, the process would complete in eight months \u2014 by June 2022. After that a rate hike could follow. This would mean reduced liquidity and, consequently, a likely re-rating of risk assets.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"596\" height=\"242\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-302.png\" alt=\"\u0410\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438 Huobi \u043d\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c Stock-to-Flow \u043e\u0442 PlanB \u043d\u0435\u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0439\" class=\"wp-image-157045\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-302.png 596w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-302-300x122.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 596px) 100vw, 596px\" \/><figcaption>\u0414\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435: Huobi Research.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Huobi emphasised that PlanB relied solely on Bitcoin blockchain data, but ignored the influence of external macroeconomic factors.<\/p>\n<p>In their view, the large amount of liquidity under the <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B5_%D1%81%D0%BC%D1%8F%D0%B3%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5\">QE<\/a> programme in response to the COVID-19 pandemic spurred Bitcoin to record highs. Now the turning point for global liquidity has arrived.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"832\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-595.png\" alt=\"\u0410\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438 Huobi \u043d\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c Stock-to-Flow \u043e\u0442 PlanB \u043d\u0435\u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0439\" class=\"wp-image-157042\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-595.png 832w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-595-300x162.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-595-768x415.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 832px) 100vw, 832px\" \/><figcaption>\u0414\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435: Huobi Research.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Compared with the seven-year-ago events, liquidity in the global financial system has grown substantially. Huobi believes this will help avoid a sharp negative revaluation of risk assets. However, it will in practice hinder their further rise given the relatively high pace at which the inflow of \u201cfresh money\u201d is shrinking, the analysts added.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"567\" height=\"268\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-111.png\" alt=\"\u0410\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438 Huobi \u043d\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c Stock-to-Flow \u043e\u0442 PlanB \u043d\u0435\u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0439\" class=\"wp-image-157043\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-111.png 567w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-111-300x142.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 567px) 100vw, 567px\" \/><figcaption>\u0414\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435: Huobi Research.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Against the backdrop of inflation accelerating to 6.2% year on year in October, calls within the Fed to speed up QE tapering grew louder. If implemented, analysts allowed for further declines in Bitcoin&#8217;s price.<\/p>\n<p>In November<a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/scaramucci-bitcoin-could-trade-at-500000\"> forecast<\/a> Bitcoin would reach $500,000.<\/p>\n<p> Subscribe to ForkLog news on Telegram: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/forklogfeed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ForkLog Feed<\/a> \u2014 full news feed, <a href=\"https:\/\/telegram.me\/forklog\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ForkLog<\/a> \u2014 the most important news, infographics and opinions <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model may be flawed\u2014the Bitcoin price in the remaining days of November is unlikely to reach the projected $98,000. Huobi analysts say its author PlanB did not account for normalization of monetary policy by the Fed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":53557,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1249,230,1224,1268],"class_list":["post-53556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-federal-reserve-system","tag-huobi","tag-macroeconomics","tag-on-chain-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"25","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53556"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53556\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":53558,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53556\/revisions\/53558"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/53557"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}