{"id":51446,"date":"2021-10-19T16:58:04","date_gmt":"2021-10-19T13:58:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=51446"},"modified":"2025-09-02T23:45:24","modified_gmt":"2025-09-02T20:45:24","slug":"analysts-split-on-the-impact-of-bitcoin-etf-launch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/analysts-split-on-the-impact-of-bitcoin-etf-launch\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts Split on the Impact of Bitcoin ETF Launch"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/media-set-the-date-for-the-start-of-trading-of-the-first-u-s-futures-bitcoin-etf\">The launch of Bitcoin ETF trading by ProShares<\/a> could trigger profit-taking as expectations are realised. Not all experts are convinced that, if the first cryptocurrency-based instrument is approved, the adage will hold.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/pantera-capital-ceo-warns-of-bitcoin-sell-off-after-etf-approval\">One of the axiom&#8217;s proponents, Dan Morehead<\/a> asked for a reminder of the upcoming event a day in advance so that he &#8216;took a few chips off the table.&#8217; The CEO of Pantera Capital is convinced the adage certainly works in the crypto space.<\/p>\n<p>He cited two past events that triggered the market wisdom: the launch of Bitcoin futures on the CME and Coinbase going public. In the first case, digital gold subsequently fell by 83%, in the second by 54%.<\/p>\n<p>After a prolonged contraction of exchange balances, momentum has shifted to a neutral stance. In the last 30 days inflows were roughly matched by outflows, <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/glassnode-analysts-report-improvement-in-key-metrics-ahead-of-bitcoin-etf-launch\">noted<\/a> in Glassnode&#8217;s latest report.<\/p>\n<blockquote class='wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow'>\n<p><em>\u201cThis aligns with the expectation that once Bitcoin ETF trading begins, we will likely see a sell-off. You move cryptocurrency onto exchanges [&#8230;] when you plan to use that liquidity,\u201d<\/em> \u2014 analyst Nick Mancini.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class='twitter-tweet' data-conversation='none'>\n<p lang='en' dir='ltr'>This goes in line with the expectation that once trading goes live for a Bitcoin ETF we will likely see a sell off event.<\/p>\n<p>The reason you keep crypto on exchanges is because you plan to make use of that liquidity.<\/p>\n<p>Keep a lookout for a major selling event earlier next week.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Nick_Mancini.jpeg \ud83d\udcab (@nickcini) <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/nickcini\/status\/1449121507913830400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>October 15, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src='https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8'><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In a CoinDesk commentary, Genesis Global Trading&#8217;s Noel Acheson argues that the sell-off, even if it occurs, won&#8217;t be deep.<\/p>\n<blockquote class='wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow'>\n<p><em>\u201cIn December 2017 or in April 2021 the market was already &#8216;frothy&#8217; and showed signs of exhaustion. It isn&#8217;t the case now,\u201d<\/em> she explained.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>No\u00ebl Acheson&#8217;s view is shared by Pankaj Balani, head of Delta&#8217;s crypto platform, and Patrick Hoissera, head of trading at Crypto Broker AG. The experts stressed that the most interest will be generated by the instrument&#8217;s trading volume on its first day.<\/p>\n<p>Stack Funds CEO Matthew Dib noted that the potential pullback could be modest given the market&#8217;s moderate leverage and the substantial premium on the September 22 futures. The latter are trading at $68,880.<\/p>\n<blockquote class='wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow'>\n<p><em>\u201cWe\u2019re not seeing any warning signs that the market is overheated in the short term,\u201d<\/em> he concluded.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>According to BYBT, funding costs in the perpetual futures market ranged from 0.01% to 0.024%, not signaling extreme values.<\/p>\n<p>Skew calculations indicate a dominance of bullish sentiment in contracts with maturities from one week to six months. They also reflected the predominance of demand for call options and interest in $100,000 and $200,000 strike levels for year-end expiries, <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/glassnode-analysts-report-improvement-in-key-metrics-ahead-of-bitcoin-etf-launch\">noted<\/a> by Glassnode analysts.<\/p>\n<div class='wp-block-image'>\n<figure class='aligncenter size-full'><img loading='lazy' decoding='async' width='812' height='486' src='https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-572.png' alt='Analysts divergent on Bitcoin ETF impact' class='wp-image-153368' srcset='https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-572.png 812w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-572-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-572-768x460.png 768w' sizes='auto, (max-width: 812px) 100vw, 812px' \/><figcaption>Data: skew, <a href='https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2021\/10\/19\/analysts-divided-on-prospects-of-sell-the-fact-move-as-bitcoin-etf-listing-nears\/'>CoinDesk<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Beyond its short-term impact, the launch of Bitcoin ETF trading is also a prompt to assess the SEC&#8217;s long-term prospects. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee forecast that in the first year investors will channel $50 billion into this and similar instruments.<\/p>\n<blockquote class='twitter-tweet'>\n<p lang='en' dir='ltr'><a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>#Bitcoin<\/a> bull Tom Lee: Futures ETF could see $50 billion in first-year inflows. <a href='https:\/\/t.co\/NROTJDz0qF'>pic.twitter.com\/NROTJDz0qF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/BitcoinMagazine\/status\/1450430065636950023?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>October 19, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src='https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8'><\/script><\/p>\n<p>For comparison, <span data-descr='assets under management' class='old_tooltip'>AUM<\/span> of all crypto funds for institutional investors as of October 15 reached a record $72.3 billion, including Bitcoin-based funds at $50.26 billion.<\/p>\n<p>CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes that the Bitcoin ETF launch will catalyse the long-term growth of the flagship cryptocurrency, analogously to gold.<\/p>\n<p>According to the expert, from 2004 to 2021 the market cap of the main precious metal rose from $1 trillion to $11 trillion. The total market value of digital gold recently also surpassed $1 trillion.<\/p>\n<blockquote class='twitter-tweet'>\n<p lang='en' dir='ltr'>\ud83d\udfe8 Gold market cap <br \/>Before ETF in 2004: $1 Trillion<br \/>After ETF in 2021: $11 Trillion<\/p>\n<p>If $10T demand came from an inflation hedge, not industrial use, this year is going to be interesting for <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>#Bitcoin<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83e\ude99 BTC market cap<br \/>Before ETF in 2021: $1 Trillion <a href='https:\/\/t.co\/aiDB3iv7Wm'>https:\/\/t.co\/aiDB3iv7Wm<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ki Young Ju \uc8fc\uae30\uc601 (@ki_young_ju) <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/1448954537125957632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>October 15, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src='https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8'><\/script><\/p>\n<p>As Arcane Research notes, futures analysis suggests Bitcoin is set to reach an all-time high <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/futures-analysis-bitcoin-price-poised-to-hit-an-all-time-high\">to reach an all-time high<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>According to Arcane Research, by the end of October the SEC should respond to similar applications from <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/invesco-files-to-launch-bitcoin-etf-expert-surprised-by-the-circumstances\">Invesco<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/vaneck-files-for-bitcoin-strategy-etf\">VanEck<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/galaxy-digital-applies-to-launch-a-bitcoin-futures-etf-under-the-1940-act\">Galaxy Digital<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/valkyrie-investments-files-for-bitcoin-futures-based-etf\">Valkyrie Investments<\/a>. The product from the latter has formally already received <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bloomberg-reports-imminent-approval-of-bitcoin-futures-etf-as-price-tops-61000\">listing on Nasdaq<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Follow ForkLog on YouTube channel at <a href='https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCC9FnXTC8_ENzaNSO5cHQ6g' target='_blank' rel='nofollow noopener'>YouTube<\/a>!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The upcoming start of trading for ProShares&#8217; Bitcoin ETF could trigger profit-taking as expectations are realised. Not all experts are convinced that this market adage will hold if a Bitcoin-based instrument is approved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1138,1211],"class_list":["post-51446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-opinions","tag-stock-market"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"15","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51446","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51446"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51446\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51447,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51446\/revisions\/51447"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}