{"id":37258,"date":"2019-11-05T07:00:20","date_gmt":"2019-11-05T05:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=37258"},"modified":"2025-08-29T14:33:48","modified_gmt":"2025-08-29T11:33:48","slug":"what-is-the-bitcoin-halving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving\/","title":{"rendered":"What is the Bitcoin halving?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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What is the Bitcoin halving?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The halving is the programmed twofold cut to the reward paid to miners for adding a new block to the blockchain<\/a>. Satoshi Nakamoto encoded halvings every 210,000 blocks\u2014roughly once every four years\u2014until issuance ends when 21m coins have been mined (expected around 2140).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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How many halvings have there been, and when is the next?<\/h2>\n

The Bitcoin network has halved three times: 28 November 2012, 9 July 2016 and 11 May 2020. Early on, miners earned 50 BTC per block; after the first halving that fell to 25 BTC, after the second to 12.5 BTC, and after the third to 6.25 BTC.<\/p>\n

The fourth halving will cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC. It is expected in mid-April 2024 at block #840000. The fifth halving should occur in 2028\u2014after which the reward will drop to 1.5625 BTC. After the sixth halving, expected in 2032, miners will for the first time receive less than a whole bitcoin per block.<\/p>\n

Block rewards will keep shrinking roughly every four years until 2140.<\/p>\n

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Why is there a halving?<\/h2>\n

The halving\u2019s main purpose is to control issuance and restrain inflation.<\/p>\n

Even before the first halving in 2012, Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin explained<\/a> its necessity by comparing bitcoin to gold: \u201cThe world\u2019s gold reserves are limited, and with each gram mined it becomes harder and harder to obtain the remaining gold. As a result of such limited supply, gold has preserved its value as an international medium of exchange and store of value for more than six thousand years, and there is hope that bitcoin will do the same.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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How does the halving affect mining and miners?<\/h2>\n

To keep the network stable, Satoshi Nakamoto ensured that when mining activity drops, difficulty adjusts downward. If, after a halving, some miners find production unprofitable and quit, reducing the network hashrate, the difficulty of producing the digital gold will decline accordingly.<\/p>\n

This means the intervals between new blocks remain about the same, and transaction processing speed does not suffer from miner exits.<\/p>\n

Mining profitability also depends on the price and the volume of transactions in the network: if these are high enough, the negative effect of a lower reward will be weaker.<\/p>\n

In 2023 miners\u2019 income also rose thanks to the popularity of Inscriptions\u2014a way to record data on the bitcoin blockchain. Glassnode analysts claim<\/a> that up to 30% of miners\u2019 fee revenue in 2023 came from such \u201cinscriptions\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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How does the halving affect bitcoin\u2019s price?<\/h2>\n

The first two halvings were followed by heightened volatility over the next 12\u201318 months: the price could rise from $11 to $1,100 or from $230 to $20,000\u2014and then fall fivefold. After the third halving, the peak reached $69,000, more than eight times higher than $8,500. On the fourth halving\u2019s impact, experts are divided: some expect gains, others little change.<\/p>\n

Industry veteran and Blockstream CEO Adam Back forecast a rise in the first cryptocurrency\u2019s price to $100,000 before the 2024 halving. He also set a target range for BTC of $750,000 to $1m by 2026.<\/p>\n

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes offered similar projections. He said that in 2024 BTC could reach $70,000 per coin, and by 2026 up to $1m. A new ATH<\/span>, around $80,000 per BTC in 2024, is also forecast by Bitwise analysts.<\/p>\n

Representatives of the CryptoQuant platform suggested that BTC could reach $160,000 in 2024. In their view, the drivers could include not only the halving but also approval of a spot ETF<\/a> in the United States.<\/p>\n

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor said<\/a> that the catalyst for price growth in 2024 would be not only the halving but also an ETF. In his words, the new instrument will trigger a \u201cdemand shock\u201d for digital gold, soon followed by a \u201csupply shock\u201d from the halving.<\/p>\n

Researchers at financial giant VanEck offered a more restrained outlook. The company said that the run-up to the halving would not lead to serious deviations.<\/p>\n

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Could the halving trigger a bitcoin \u201cdeath spiral\u201d?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Mining difficulty<\/a> is recalculated every two weeks\u2014every 2016 blocks. Hence the concern that a gap between a falling hashrate and the next difficulty adjustment could push the bitcoin network into a so-called \u201cdeath spiral\u201d.<\/p>\n

Here is how it would look: difficulty stays high, mining profitability falls\u2014miners power down, hashrate drops, transactions slow.<\/p>\n

However, blockchain expert Andreas Antonopoulos believes bitcoin\u2019s network is not threatened by a \u201cdeath spiral\u201d, because miners typically enter the industry with a long-term strategy and will continue operating while awaiting the next difficulty adjustment and a return to normal network conditions.<\/p>\n

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