{"id":29955,"date":"2020-10-12T14:49:15","date_gmt":"2020-10-12T11:49:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=29955"},"modified":"2025-08-27T19:51:50","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T16:51:50","slug":"researcher-bitcoin-is-unlikely-to-drop-below-11000-with-90-probability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/researcher-bitcoin-is-unlikely-to-drop-below-11000-with-90-probability\/","title":{"rendered":"Researcher: Bitcoin is unlikely to drop below $11,000 with 90% probability"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Timothy Peterson, manager of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, is convinced that Bitcoin will not fall below $11,000 with a 90% probability.<!--more--><\/p>\n<blockquote class='twitter-tweet'>\n<p dir='ltr' lang='en'>1\/10 Today, the 11th, is <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>#Bitcoin<\/a> $11K day. There is a 90% chance that bitcoin will never again close below $11K. I\u2019m stopping the <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/10KCountdown?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>#10KCountdown<\/a> <a href='https:\/\/t.co\/eBt54xrA9e'>pic.twitter.com\/eBt54xrA9e<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/nsquaredcrypto\/status\/1315313681606094849?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>October 11, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src='https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8'><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to him, the resilience of the $11,000 support is underpinned by &#8216;long-term, fundamental trends&#8217;.<\/p>\n<p>Before Bitcoin breached the $11,000 level, the probability of price falling below $10,000 stood at 10%. As of now, that figure has fallen to 2%, according to Peterson&#8217;s calculations.<\/p>\n<div id='attachment_112944' style='width: 1108px' class='wp-caption aligncenter'><img loading='lazy' decoding='async' aria-describedby='caption-attachment-112944' class='wp-image-112944 size-full' src='https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image1-329.png' alt='Researcher: Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $11,000 with 90% probability' width='1098' height='735' srcset='https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image1-329.png 1098w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image1-329-300x201.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image1-329-1024x685.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image1-329-768x514.png 768w' sizes='auto, (max-width: 1098px) 100vw, 1098px' \/><\/p>\n<p id='caption-attachment-112944' class='wp-caption-text'>Source: Timothy Peterson&#8217;s Twitter account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>According to him, the Metcalfe&#8217;s Law-based approach to pricing helped accurately forecast Bitcoin&#8217;s price at the end of 2018 and in 2019. <span class='old_tooltip'><span data-descr=\"Metcalfe's Law states that the usefulness of a network is proportional to the square of its users. In this context, Bitcoin's value wholly depends on the community using it.\"><\/span>\u0417\u0430\u043a\u043e\u043d \u041c\u0435\u0442\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0444\u0430<\/span> for determining periods of alleged market manipulation in 2013. As inputs, he used the number of Bitcoin wallets on blockchain.com.<\/p>\n<blockquote class='wp-embedded-content' data-secret='ECGiK1zHxI'>\n<p>If I knew how to buy: how to calculate the future price of Bitcoin and other crypto assets<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading='lazy' class='wp-embedded-content' sandbox='allow-scripts' security='restricted' style='position: absolute; visibility: hidden;' title='\u201c\u0417\u043d\u0430\u043b \u0431\u044b \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043a\u0443\u043f: \u043a\u0430\u043a \u0440\u0430\u0441\u0441\u0447\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0443\u044e \u0441\u0442\u043e\u0438\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0431\u0438\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d\u0430 \u0438 \u0434\u0440\u0443\u0433\u0438\u0445 \u043a\u0440\u0438\u043f\u0442\u043e\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043e\u0432\u201d \u2014 ForkLog' src='https:\/\/u1f987.com\/exclusive\/znal-by-prikup-kak-rasschitat-budushhuyu-stoimost-bitkoina-i-drugih-kriptoaktivov\/embed#?secret=YBxJAP2jlI#?secret=ECGiK1zHxI' data-secret='ECGiK1zHxI' width='500' height='282' frameborder='0' marginwidth='0' marginheight='0' scrolling='no'><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>According to him, the Metcalfe\u2019s Law-based approach to determining value helped accurately forecast Bitcoin&#8217;s price at the end of 2018 and in 2019.<\/p>\n<blockquote class='twitter-tweet' data-conversation='none'>\n<p dir='ltr' lang='en'>3\/10 Since then I have correctly forecast <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>#bitcoin<\/a> year-end prices in 2018\u2026 <a href='https:\/\/t.co\/9iSPuM4sYz'>pic.twitter.com\/9iSPuM4sYz<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/nsquaredcrypto\/status\/1315313687725576196?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>October 11, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src='https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8'><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Peterson presented the forecast on January 3, 2019, &#8216;in honor of the genesis block&#8217;s 10th anniversary&#8217;.<\/p>\n<blockquote class='twitter-tweet' data-conversation='none'>\n<p dir='ltr' lang='en'>4\/10 \u2026and in 2019. Note the 2020 <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>#bitcoin<\/a> forecast. This report was released Jan 3 2019, in honor of the genesis block 10th anniversary. <a href='https:\/\/t.co\/2zYL455PVg'>pic.twitter.com\/2zYL455PVg<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/nsquaredcrypto\/status\/1315313691806633985?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>October 11, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src='https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8'><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In a June 2020 article, &#8216;Why Bitcoin&#8217;s price never looks back&#8217;, the researcher refined the forecast for November.<\/p>\n<blockquote class='twitter-tweet' data-conversation='none'>\n<p dir='ltr' lang='en'>5\/10 In June 2020 I used Metcalfe\u2019s law to forecast *daily* <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>#bitcoin<\/a> prices through November <a href='https:\/\/t.co\/87wc13s8Ur'>https:\/\/t.co\/87wc13s8Ur<\/a> <a href='https:\/\/t.co\/4aHEuNtNgp'>pic.twitter.com\/4aHEuNtNgp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/nsquaredcrypto\/status\/1315313696604917761?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>October 11, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src='https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8'><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to him, the Metcalfe&#8217;s Law-based approach to pricing helped forecast Bitcoin&#8217;s price for November 2020 with 90% probability.<\/p>\n<blockquote class='twitter-tweet' data-conversation='none'>\n<p dir='ltr' lang='en'>6\/10 On November 30th, 2020, <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>#Bitcoin<\/a>\u2018s price will be at or above $12,000 (90% probability). Write it down, screenshot it, whatever. I don\u2019t care if you believe me or not. <a href='https:\/\/t.co\/EpmDdAPu2T'>pic.twitter.com\/EpmDdAPu2T<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/nsquaredcrypto\/status\/1315313700702748673?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>October 11, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src='https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8'><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The screenshot shows the researcher\u2019s confidence that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in January 2024 and $1 million in March 2028.<\/p>\n<blockquote class='twitter-tweet' data-conversation='none'>\n<p dir='ltr' lang='en'>7\/10 Metcalfe\u2019s law is a mathematical and scientific fact, like gravity and E=mc2. I wrote 80+ pages of <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>#bitcoin<\/a> research backed by thousands of pages of supporting financial economics, as well as taught 2 semesters of MBA courses on network valuation. <a href='https:\/\/t.co\/n9atKeSuMP'>https:\/\/t.co\/n9atKeSuMP<\/a> <a href='https:\/\/t.co\/14P4S8UgSK'>pic.twitter.com\/14P4S8UgSK<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/nsquaredcrypto\/status\/1315313704582471680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>October 11, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src='https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8'><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>&#8216;Metcalfe&#8217;s Law is a mathematical and scientific fact, like gravity or E=mc\u00b2&#8217;, wrote Peterson.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>To the next tweet, the researcher attached a video briefly describing Metcalfe&#8217;s Law in the case of Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading='lazy' src='https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/443488253' width='640' height='327' frameborder='0' allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen'><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Finally, Peterson promised to publish in January forecasts for 2022 for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Chainlink.<\/p>\n<blockquote class='twitter-tweet' data-conversation='none'>\n<p dir='ltr' lang='en'>10\/10 You\u2019ll see some amazing things happen with <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>#bitcoin<\/a> in 2021. In January 2021 I\u2019ll release the reports for Bitcoin 2022, Ethereum 2022, and Chainlink 2022. Keep an eye out for them here: <a href='https:\/\/t.co\/lJqaoWXghE'>https:\/\/t.co\/lJqaoWXghE<\/a> and follow <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/CaneDigital?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>@canedigital<\/a> for news and updates. <a href='https:\/\/t.co\/v2NNnJlzyJ'>pic.twitter.com\/v2NNnJlzyJ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) <a href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/nsquaredcrypto\/status\/1315313714351005696?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'>October 11, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src='https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js' charset='utf-8'><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The Winklevoss twins <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/winklevoss-brothers-predict-bitcoin-at-500000\">are confident<\/a> that Bitcoin could surpass the $500,000 mark. In their view, the leading cryptocurrency outperforms gold as a store of value.<\/p>\n<p>Subscribe to ForkLog news on Telegram: <a href='https:\/\/t.me\/forkloglive' target='_blank' rel='nofollow noopener noreferrer'>ForkLog FEED<\/a> \u2014 the full news feed, <a href='https:\/\/telegram.me\/forklog' target='_blank' rel='nofollow noopener noreferrer'>ForkLog<\/a> \u2014 the most important news and polls.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Timothy Peterson, manager of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, is convinced that Bitcoin will not fall below $11,000 with a 90% probability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29956,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1146,1138],"class_list":["post-29955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"61","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29955","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29955"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29955\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29957,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29955\/revisions\/29957"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29956"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29955"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29955"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29955"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}