{"id":29453,"date":"2020-10-01T11:28:41","date_gmt":"2020-10-01T08:28:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=29453"},"modified":"2025-08-27T17:07:19","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T14:07:19","slug":"prediction-markets-declare-trump-the-loser-after-the-first-us-presidential-debate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/prediction-markets-declare-trump-the-loser-after-the-first-us-presidential-debate\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction markets declare Trump the loser after the first US presidential debate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Following the first televised debates among the candidates for the U.S. presidency, blockchain prediction markets awarded victory to Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden.<!--more--><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">New open interest during tonight\u2019s debate: \ud83d\udc40<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket: $55k<br \/>\nAugur: $10k<br \/>\nOmen: $0 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zGVXxODIed\">https:\/\/t.co\/zGVXxODIed<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EpK2JNqb4F\">pic.twitter.com\/EpK2JNqb4F<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Richard Chen (@richardchen39) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/richardchen39\/status\/1311148546519896064?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 30, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Open interest on the Polymarket platform during the debates held earlier this week rose by $55,000, surpassing $300,000. The corresponding figure for election-outcome futures on the crypto-derivatives exchange FTX stood at $4 million.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"in\">FTX: $4m<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FzWX2goXbo\">https:\/\/t.co\/FzWX2goXbo<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 SBF (@SBF_Alameda) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SBF_Alameda\/status\/1311158122447163392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 30, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In both cases, users were unanimous: on Polymarket Trump&#8217;s chances of victory rose in the first minutes, before dropping to 45%. On the FTX exchange, where bets can be leveraged, that figure fell from 44% to 40%.<\/p>\n<p>The probability of Joe Biden&#8217;s victory in the U.S. presidential election rose to 55% and 60%, respectively.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_111844\" style=\"width: 1157px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-111844\" class=\"size-full wp-image-111844\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2020-10-01_11-27-40.jpg\" alt=\"\u0420\u044b\u043d\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0441\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u043e\u0431\u044a\u044f\u0432\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0422\u0440\u0430\u043c\u043f\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0433\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0448\u0438\u043c \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u0434\u0435\u0431\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0432 \u0421\u0428\u0410\" width=\"1147\" height=\"517\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2020-10-01_11-27-40.jpg 1147w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2020-10-01_11-27-40-300x135.jpg 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2020-10-01_11-27-40-1024x462.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/photo_2020-10-01_11-27-40-768x346.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1147px) 100vw, 1147px\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-111844\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Trump victory futures on the U.S. presidential election. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ftx.com\/trade\/TRUMP\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">FTX<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>FTX added the TRUMP-2020 futures contract (TRUMP), enabling traders to profit from the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, in February of this year.<\/p>\n<p>In a comment to <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/crypto-prediction-markets-turn-against-trump-after-first-debate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Cointelegraph<\/a>, Polymarket founder Shane Koplan said that the platform was created not only for speculation, but also for producing answers to current questions.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThe most wonderful thing about markets is their ability to aggregate information and synthesize it into an accurate forecast. This is what price discovery is\u2014a gathering of opinions and their consolidation into a single metric. And this can have incredible social and informational value,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>To determine prices, Polymarket uses automated market-maker (AMM) technology. Instead of order books, liquidity pools are used for trading. Any platform participant can propose ideas for markets. Administrators, for their part, guarantee that specific terms do not permit ambiguous interpretations.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, Capriole Investments analyst Charles Edwards said that Donald Trump&#8217;s bid for a second term would be a driver of Bitcoin&#8217;s price.<\/p>\n<p>Follow ForkLog&#8217;s news on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/forklog\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Following the first televised debates for the U.S. presidency, blockchain prediction markets awarded victory to Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[991,1148,1595,26],"class_list":["post-29453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-donald-trump","tag-polymarket","tag-prediction-markets","tag-usa"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"22","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29453","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29453"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29453\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29455,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29453\/revisions\/29455"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}