{"id":25608,"date":"2025-07-26T20:14:04","date_gmt":"2025-07-26T17:14:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bitwise-cio-declares-bitcoin-cycles-obsolete\/"},"modified":"2025-07-26T20:14:04","modified_gmt":"2025-07-26T17:14:04","slug":"bitwise-cio-declares-bitcoin-cycles-obsolete","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/bitwise-cio-declares-bitcoin-cycles-obsolete\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitwise CIO Declares Bitcoin Cycles Obsolete"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, has concluded that the four-year cycles for Bitcoin are no longer relevant. The forces that once shaped these cycles have weakened under new conditions.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Why is the four-year cycle dead?<\/p>\n<p>1) The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker:<\/p>\n<p>i) The halving is half as important every four years;<\/p>\n<p>ii) The interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, not negative (as it was in 2018 and 2022);<\/p>\n<p>iii) Blow-up risk is\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/F9ybjHEeB5\">https:\/\/t.co\/F9ybjHEeB5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Matt_Hougan\/status\/1948709817125593227?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The expert highlighted the following changes:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Halvings used to cause a &#8220;demand shock,&#8221; but they have been replaced by the constant increasing purchases of cryptocurrency by institutions and corporations; <\/li>\n<li>The risk of collapse has diminished due to improved regulation and institutionalization of the industry; <\/li>\n<li>A new trend over the next 5-10 years is the inflow of funds into BTC-ETFs, with traditional financial institutions just beginning to join.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Legislative support, such as the recent <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/donald-trump-enacts-stablecoin-legislation\">passage of the GENIUS Act<\/a>, is facilitating the entry of Wall Street players into the market, who are expected to invest &#8220;billions in the coming years,&#8221; Hougan asserts.<\/p>\n<p>He added that in terms of macroeconomics, the correlation with changes in the <span data-descr=\"Federal Reserve System of the United States\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed&#8217;s<\/span> interest rates has become positive, rather than negative as it was in 2018 and 2022.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;All this suggests that long-term pro-crypto forces will crush the classic factors of the &#8216;four-year cycle,&#8217; if they exist at all. 2026 will be favorable. I might be wrong, but we are in for significant volatility. And I think it&#8217;s more of a &#8216;sustained, steady boom&#8217; than a supercycle,&#8221; Hougan stated.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>However, he pointed out one &#8220;significant risk&#8221; to watch for\u2014the boom in the formation of corporate Bitcoin treasuries.<\/p>\n<p>Recently, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/cryptoquant-ceo-acknowledges-bitcoin-cycle-theorys-obsolescence\">acknowledged<\/a> that the cycle theory of the first cryptocurrency no longer works. The analyst apologized for his previous erroneous forecasts.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley estimated that the total target volume of Bitcoin encompasses the gold and U.S. Treasury bond markets, <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitwise-ceo-bitcoin-could-absorb-30-trillion-in-us-treasury-bonds\">valued at $16 trillion and $30 trillion<\/a> respectively.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, has concluded that the four-year cycles for Bitcoin are no longer relevant. The forces that once shaped these cycles have weakened under new conditions. Why is the four-year cycle dead? 1) The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker: i) The halving is half as important [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25607,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[949,1146,1138],"class_list":["post-25608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitwise","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"40","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25608","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25608"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25608\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25607"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25608"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25608"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25608"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}