{"id":25594,"date":"2025-07-25T18:01:23","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T15:01:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/cryptoquant-ceo-acknowledges-bitcoin-cycle-theorys-obsolescence\/"},"modified":"2025-07-25T18:01:23","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T15:01:23","slug":"cryptoquant-ceo-acknowledges-bitcoin-cycle-theorys-obsolescence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/cryptoquant-ceo-acknowledges-bitcoin-cycle-theorys-obsolescence\/","title":{"rendered":"CryptoQuant CEO Acknowledges Bitcoin Cycle Theory&#8217;s Obsolescence"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, has declared that the Bitcoin cycle theory is no longer valid, admitting the inaccuracy of his previous forecasts.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> cycle theory is dead.<\/p>\n<p>My predictions were based on it\u2014buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds.<\/p>\n<p>Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/1948512682157519266?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to him, the market previously operated on a simple scheme: &#8220;buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins.&#8221; However, now old large investors are selling assets to new long-term ones. Institutional players <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-whale-inflows-surge-by-60-in-a-week\">have assumed<\/a> a more significant role than expected.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Trading now seems pointless because there are more holders than traders,&#8221; wrote the head of CryptoQuant.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The expert <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/cryptoquant-ceo-apologizes-for-erroneous-bitcoin-forecast\">once again apologized<\/a> for the erroneous Bitcoin forecast. In March, Ki Young Ju <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/cryptoquant-ceo-declares-end-of-bitcoin-bull-market\">announced<\/a> the end of the bull market for the first cryptocurrency, then overlooking the cycle theory&#8217;s obsolescence.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;I sincerely apologize if my analyses influenced your investment decisions. In the future, I will focus on data rather than outdated patterns,&#8221; he noted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/institutional-investors-propel-bitcoin-rally-says-cryptoquant\">pointed out<\/a> that a steady decline in the balances of small market participants began in 2023. In 2024, active accumulation by whales started, as seen in the chart below.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-qw.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXf43VFypu2M0P8hHI4Igt9S2ZXODipLrGUy7lH5Pack8I6VQ6Vwjd9EN4XVj0LVEMYkE5BaumEapKoQhpFM908j1JNo9NDB8xzSh8Azgk26wSWhH_LtF3G-7ZVkdBUsBA-KRKlRuw?key=VOdb3afR-DioQRtdK6L08g\" alt=\"CEO CryptoQuant \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0437\u043d\u0430\u043b \u043d\u0435\u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0442\u0435\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0438 \u0446\u0438\u043a\u043b\u043e\u0432 \u0431\u0438\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d\u0430\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Changes in distribution between small and large Bitcoin investors over the past year. Source: CryptoQuant.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Diverse Opinions<\/h2>\n<p>Not all members of the crypto community agreed with the CryptoQuant CEO&#8217;s view on Bitcoin cycles. According to trader Crypto Ex-Insider, this theory has not died but evolved.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Cycle theory didn\u2019t die, it evolved.<\/p>\n<p>The retail vs. whale dynamic got replaced by long-horizon giants reshaping the game.<\/p>\n<p>This isn\u2019t the end of trading, it\u2019s the beginning of a slower, deeper war for supply.<\/p>\n<p>The real shift? Time preference.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Crypto Ex-Insider \ud83e\udd77 (@XInsiderCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/XInsiderCrypto\/status\/1948518625133883672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;The clash between retail investors and whales has been replaced by a game of long-term titans reshaping the market. This is not the end of the trading era, but the beginning of a slower and larger battle for liquidity,&#8221; he wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>User Macrofi <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/TwitchingStar\/status\/1948524327349223683\">noted<\/a> that the essence of the problem lies in relying on on-chain analysis rather than Bitcoin cycle theories:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;As long as you rely on on-chain data analysis, you will continue to err and adjust your theories, as this data always appears with a delay. This means your new conclusions may also be incorrect.&#8221; <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Bitcoin to Reach $135,000 by Year-End<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, major American bank Citi shared an updated Bitcoin forecast for the end of the year, writes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2025\/07\/25\/bitcoin-to-hit-usd135k-by-year-end-in-base-case-forecast-usd199k-in-bullish-scenario-citi\">CoinDesk<\/a>. Analysts presented three scenarios:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>base case: $135,000;<\/li>\n<li>optimistic: $199,000;<\/li>\n<li>pessimistic: $64,000.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Experts highlighted three key factors that will shape the cryptocurrency&#8217;s price dynamics: user base growth, macroeconomic conditions, and demand from ETFs.<\/p>\n<p>CryptoQuant analyst known as G a a h <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/688210bcb313d26da5589341-IBCI-reaches-Distribution-region-again-after-5-months?utm_source=twitter&#038;utm_medium=sns&#038;utm_campaign=quicktake&#038;utm_content=gaah\">noted<\/a> that for the third time in the current cycle, the <span data-descr=\"Bitcoin Cycle Indicators Index\" class=\"old_tooltip\">IBCI<\/span> metric reached the euphoria zone. However, the value only touched the lower boundary\u201480%. The market is still in a growth phase, so &#8220;it has the potential for new records.&#8221; <\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, digital gold is trading at $115,654. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/ru\/%D0%9A%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BF%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8E%D1%82%D1%8B\/%D0%B1%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B8%D0%BD\">CoinGecko<\/a>, the asset&#8217;s price has decreased by 2% over the past day. Analysts linked the decline to <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-slides-towards-115000-amid-galaxy-digital-sales\">sales by Galaxy Digital<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-qw.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXfOclRpBRjpex50I8A4YE2PMnols9CPUJf49VooPXV-bS0ym-pt4MDMBat2RUxo0xiOO8bcwEF4ReauAYsq1z6hqpN6h55uVzpbpgr2bFzLE6gzQ8uUQDTavZZ-W0mhxOOK4qQq?key=VOdb3afR-DioQRtdK6L08g\" alt=\"CEO CryptoQuant \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0437\u043d\u0430\u043b \u043d\u0435\u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0442\u0435\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0438 \u0446\u0438\u043a\u043b\u043e\u0432 \u0431\u0438\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d\u0430\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Leading Glassnode analyst James Check <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/glassnode-low-trading-volume-hinders-bitcoins-path-to-200000\">expressed doubt<\/a> that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, has declared that the Bitcoin cycle theory is no longer valid, admitting the inaccuracy of his previous forecasts. #Bitcoin cycle theory is dead. My predictions were based on it\u2014buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds. Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25593,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1146,1205,1145,1138],"class_list":["post-25594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-cryptoquant","tag-market-analysis","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"84","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25594","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25594"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25594\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25593"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25594"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25594"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25594"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}