{"id":25368,"date":"2025-07-16T14:28:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-16T11:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analysts-warn-bitcoin-is-edging-into-an-overheating-zone\/"},"modified":"2025-07-16T14:28:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T11:28:00","slug":"analysts-warn-bitcoin-is-edging-into-an-overheating-zone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/analysts-warn-bitcoin-is-edging-into-an-overheating-zone\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts warn bitcoin is edging into an overheating zone"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin has yet to reach its peak. But the market is starting to exhibit overbought conditions that could later result in a sizable correction, according to researchers at several firms.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Swissblock\u2019s optimism<\/h2>\n<p>Swissblock drew attention to readings of Bitcoin Vector\u2019s Optimal Signal.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Based on <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bitcoinvector?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@bitcoinvector<\/a>\u2019s Optimal Signal, each of the last major BTC expansions has lasted 15\u201330 days.<\/p>\n<p>We are currently on day 12 \u2014 with capital also beginning to rotate into <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24ETH&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$ETH<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This cycle appears incomplete. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/iFUoaYzNjW\">pic.twitter.com\/iFUoaYzNjW<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Swissblock (@swissblock__) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/swissblock__\/status\/1945073356274852068?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cEach of the last notable bouts of bitcoin growth lasted from 15 to 30 days. We are currently on day 12, with some capital starting to rotate into Ethereum,\u201d the experts observed.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Moreover, short-term holders\u2019 unrealised profit is significantly below the levels recorded at previous peaks (January and April 2024).<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">2\/ <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@glassnode<\/a>\u2019s Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Profit remains well below the threshold reached during prior cycle tops (Jan &#038; Apr 2024).<\/p>\n<p>Market participants are not exhibiting signs of excessive profit-taking or euphoria \u2014 yet. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5kxiaMahKg\">pic.twitter.com\/5kxiaMahKg<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Swissblock (@swissblock__) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/swissblock__\/status\/1945073358954975426?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cMarket participants are not yet showing broad profit-taking or signs of euphoria,\u201d Swissblock noted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Willy Woo\u2019s Speculation Index and the metric <span data-descr=\"Volume-Weighted Average Price, the average price accounting for volume; the metric shows liquidity and trader interest at this level: the more trades nearby, the more stable the market\" class=\"old_tooltip\">VWAP Liquidity<\/span> also indicate that the market is not yet overheated.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">3\/ Both <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/woonomic?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@woonomic<\/a>\u2019s Speculation Index \ud83d\udd34 and VWAP Liquidity \ud83d\udd35 confirm that the market is not yet overheated.<\/p>\n<p>Neither indicator has reached prior cycle extremes, suggesting ongoing support for higher prices. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IInMgJYaFI\">pic.twitter.com\/IInMgJYaFI<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Swissblock (@swissblock__) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/swissblock__\/status\/1945073361991729498?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cBoth indicators are far from the extremes of past cycles, which suggests further upside potential,\u201d the experts explained.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Glassnode\u2019s observations<\/h2>\n<p>Glassnode researchers supplemented Swissblock\u2019s analysis with several metrics that \u201chelp determine the current phase of the cycle and explain why caution is warranted in the short term\u201d.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-breaches-a-record-120000-amid-institutional-demand\">Bitcoin\u2019s recent rise above $122,000<\/a> brought the price close to a level one standard deviation above the short-term holders\u2019 cost basis.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The recent rally to $122k has pushed <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> close to 1 standard deviation above the short-term holder cost basis. If this momentum continues, the next key level is $136k (2 +std), a zone that has historically marked elevated profit-taking and local market peaks. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Thl6yetTrY\">pic.twitter.com\/Thl6yetTrY<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1945130671237709850?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cIf such a move continues, the next key marker could be $136,000 (+2 standard deviations). In the past this zone saw active profit-taking and the formation of local peaks,\u201d the experts suggested.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>They noted that the new all-time high coincided with the moment when the entire supply of coins held by short-term holders was \u201cin profit\u201d.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The recent push to a new ATH at $122k coincided with 100% of short-term holder supply being in profit. This surpasses the 88% threshold that historically marks the shift from a heated market into an overheated, high-risk euphoric phase. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/pxDSsVsCvw\">pic.twitter.com\/pxDSsVsCvw<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1945130673687150824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThis reading exceeded the threshold of 88%, which traditionally signals a transition from a heated market to an overheated, high-risk euphoric phase,\u201d the researchers warned.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>As the price rose above $120,000, the share of spent volume in profit by short-term holders (<span data-descr=\"metric smoothed by a seven-day exponential moving average\" class=\"old_tooltip\">7 EMA<\/span>) reached 82% \u2014 well above the overheated threshold of 62%.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">As price surged past $120k, the 7-day EMA of spent volume in profit by short-term holders reached 82%, well above the overheated threshold of 62%. Such spikes often occur multiple times in bull markets, but repeated signals at these levels typically precede local tops and warrant\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uRQqQ724MO\">pic.twitter.com\/uRQqQ724MO<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1945130676824555851?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cSuch spikes often accompany bull cycles, but their repetition at these levels frequently signals the approach of local peaks and is a cue for caution,\u201d Glassnode noted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The ratio of realised profit to realised loss among short-term holders (<span data-descr=\"metric smoothed by a seven-day moving average\" class=\"old_tooltip\">7 MA<\/span>) reached 39.8 \u2014 well above the typical overheated level.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Similarly, the ratio of realized profit to realized loss by short-term holders (7-day EMA) spiked to 39.8x\u2014well above the statistical boundary of the overheated zone. While extreme, such structures have historically appeared multiple times before a final cycle top is reached. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/frPWU7Mils\">pic.twitter.com\/frPWU7Mils<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1945130679085171044?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cDespite the extremely high reading, similar prints have been recorded on the eve of final peaks in previous cycles,\u201d the analysts stressed.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The recent breakout from the multi-month range occurred after accumulation in the $93,000\u2013$97,000 and $101,000\u2013$109,000 zones, which is evident <span data-descr=\"visualisation of the imbalance between market buys and sells (CBD \u2014 Cumulative Volume Delta)\" class=\"old_tooltip\">on the CBD heatmap<\/span>. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The recent breakout from the multi-month range occurred after dense accumulation zones formed between $93k\u2013$97k and $101k\u2013$109k, as highlighted by the CBD Heatmap. These supply clusters are likely to act as strong support if a market correction unfolds. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/7KIlCHtE9d\">pic.twitter.com\/7KIlCHtE9d<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1945130681358549149?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>These supply clusters are likely to act as strong support in the event of a correction.<\/p>\n<p>In conclusion, Glassnode\u2019s experts said bitcoin has entered an overheated zone. In their view, cycle tops have historically \u201cformed with a delay\u201d, leaving scope for further gains.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cHowever, risk is increasing, and the market is becoming more sensitive to external shocks. The current correction fits this pattern,\u201d they summed up.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CryptoQuant\u2019s view<\/h2>\n<p>The CryptoQuant analyst known as Crypto Dan is confident the market is not yet overheated.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"cryptoquant_official\/3098\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cUnlike in March and December 2024, on-chain metrics are not yet signalling an overheated market,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The absence of overbought conditions \u201ccompared with previous short-term peaks\u201d points to the likelihood of a new <span data-descr=\"all-time high of the metric \u2014 in this case, price\" class=\"old_tooltip\">ATH<\/span> and a continued rally in the second half of 2025.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThe potential for further upside remains,\u201d Crypto Dan concluded. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, the CryptoQuant researcher going by Crazzyblock <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/whales-prepare-to-sell-as-bitcoin-volatility-looms-analyst-warns\">warned<\/a> of whales preparing to sell and of looming bitcoin volatility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin has yet to reach its peak. But the market is starting to exhibit overbought conditions that could later result in a sizable correction, according to researchers at several firms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25367,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1273,1268],"class_list":["post-25368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-glassnode","tag-on-chain-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"57","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25368\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25367"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}