{"id":23671,"date":"2025-05-05T17:49:06","date_gmt":"2025-05-05T14:49:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analysts-see-bitcoin-at-a-decision-point-as-ether-readies-a-break\/"},"modified":"2025-05-05T17:49:06","modified_gmt":"2025-05-05T14:49:06","slug":"analysts-see-bitcoin-at-a-decision-point-as-ether-readies-a-break","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/analysts-see-bitcoin-at-a-decision-point-as-ether-readies-a-break\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts see bitcoin at a decision point as ether readies a break"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-keypoints article_keypoints\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin sits at a \u201cdecision point\u201d, several metrics suggest.<\/li>\n<li>Investors await any easing of the US\u2013China trade war.<\/li>\n<li>Ethereum may be primed for a breakout.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>Bitcoin is at a \u201cdecision point\u201d, and a break from the current range is crucial, according to analyst James Check.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">In my view, it&#8217;s pretty important that Bitcoin clears this price zone in the near-term.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;re sitting right in the middle of a decision point, and all it will take is one big red or green candle from here to convince people of a lower high, or bull continuation, respectively. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1XLhMOO14K\">pic.twitter.com\/1XLhMOO14K<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 _Checkmate ??\u26a1\u2622\ufe0f?\ufe0f (@_Checkmatey_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/_Checkmatey_\/status\/1919140082688139406?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 4, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cWe are sitting right at a decision point, and it will take just one big red or green candle to convince people of a lower high or, respectively, a bull continuation,\u201d the expert explained.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>According to Glassnode, 88% of bitcoin\u2019s supply is \u201cin profit\u201d relative to last-spent prices. The reading signals a reset of investor expectations without broad capitulation.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">88% of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> supply remains in profit, with losses concentrated among buyers from the $95k\u2013$100k range. This metric also rebounded from its long-term mean, indicating a broad reset of investor expectations without widespread capitulation. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/fL2oDrP0BR\">pic.twitter.com\/fL2oDrP0BR<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1919322783722451241?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 5, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The MVRV ratio has retreated to its long-term mean of 1.74, a level historically associated with consolidation.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThis marks a cooling of unrealised gains, similar to position-closing in August 2024, and could act as support if the level holds,\u201d the analytics firm noted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>At press time the \u201cdigital gold\u201d trades around $94,000. After an attempt to test $98,000, the price pulled back to late-April levels.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"623\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSDT_2025-05-05_17-39-5111-1024x623.png\" alt=\"BTCUSDT_2025-05-05_17-39-5111\" class=\"wp-image-258092\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSDT_2025-05-05_17-39-5111-1024x623.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSDT_2025-05-05_17-39-5111-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSDT_2025-05-05_17-39-5111-768x467.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSDT_2025-05-05_17-39-5111.png 1327w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">4-hour chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSDT\/?exchange=BINANCE\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A senior researcher at Glassnode, known as CryptoVizArt, noted that the rally to $93,000\u201396,000 pushed profit-taking volume above statistical norms.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The rally to $93k-$96k has pushed the profit-taking volume above the statistical levels. For every dollar realized in loss more than 9 dollars was realized in profit! <br \/>The fact that price is still above $93k is very surprising, which in my humble opinion is also risky. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/w3zemwUc3J\">pic.twitter.com\/w3zemwUc3J<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoVizArt.\u20bf (@CryptoVizArt) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoVizArt\/status\/1919242677603737740?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 5, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThe fact that price is still above $93,000 is very surprising but, in my humble opinion, also risky,\u201d he stressed.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Macro forces intrude<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin traders are awaiting news on US\u2013China trade talks, LVRG Research director Nick Ruck told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2025\/05\/05\/bitcoin-hovers-above-94k-as-market-awaits-news-on-us-china-trade-deal\">CoinDesk<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cInvestors may be overly cautious toward risk assets such as cryptocurrencies given the current US macro climate, even as BTC decouples from US equities,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Over the weekend China\u2019s commerce ministry <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/economy\/china-economy\/article\/3308749\/china-considering-start-trade-negotiations-us-commerce-ministry-says\">said<\/a> it is considering a US proposal to restart talks. President Donald Trump hinted that Beijing \u201cwants to make a deal\u201d.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cWe remain optimistic that prices will make new highs over the long term as institutional adoption deepens via RWA issuance and integration with crypto platforms,\u201d Ruck added.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Prediction-market traders on Polymarket remain skeptical (<a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/us-china-trade-deal-before-june\">20% odds<\/a> of an agreement between the world\u2019s two largest economies), yet the yuan strengthened to a six-month high on the news.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, Glassnode <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/glassnode-highlights-potential-sell-off-risks-as-bitcoin-approaches-100000\">urged<\/a> bitcoin bulls to be cautious. Analysts said the price needs to hold above $91,000\u201393,000 given \u201cweak\u201d buy-side momentum.<\/p>\n<p>In their view, the $93,000\u201395,000 area\u2014aligned with short-term holders\u2019 cost basis\u2014is the decisive battleground for market direction.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThey represent a critical inflection point that must hold. Failure to stabilise above it would return price to the consolidation range and leave many investors with substantial unrealised losses,\u201d Glassnode noted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ethereum\u2019s Pectra hard fork is seen as a catalyst<\/h2>\n<p>On March 10, long-term ether accumulators \u201cmoved into unrealised-loss territory\u201d, noted CryptoQuant on-chain analyst Carmelo Alem\u00e1n Santana.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">ETH Holders Refuse to Sell: Accumulating Addresses Lower Their Cost Basis<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOn March 10 they held 15.5356M ETH, and by May 3 this rose to 19.0378M ETH, a 22.54% increase. Behavior reflects structural conviction &#038; clear expectations of short-term appreciation.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/oro_crypto?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@oro_crypto<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yx12tC7N0O\">pic.twitter.com\/yx12tC7N0O<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/1919322089367937435?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 5, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>By May 3, however, this cohort had increased its combined balance from ~15.5m ETH to ~19m ETH.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThe behaviour reflects structural conviction and clear expectations of short-term appreciation,\u201d the expert believes.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Ethereum developers have <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/ethereum-developers-postpone-pectra-update-to-may-7\">scheduled<\/a> activation of the Pectra hard fork for May 7. The upgrade includes a series of improvements aimed at boosting usability and efficiency. One notable change adds smart-contract functionality to wallets, simplifying their use and recovery.<\/p>\n<p>Since the start of the year, ether has steadily lost ground against bitcoin. But ahead of the hard fork the Bollinger Bands indicator has narrowed sharply.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"615\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ETHBTC_2025-05-05_16-51-21-1024x615.png\" alt=\"ETHBTC_2025-05-05_16-51-21\" class=\"wp-image-258093\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ETHBTC_2025-05-05_16-51-21-1024x615.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ETHBTC_2025-05-05_16-51-21-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ETHBTC_2025-05-05_16-51-21-768x461.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/ETHBTC_2025-05-05_16-51-21.png 1327w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Daily chart of ETH\/BTC on Binance. Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/ETHBTC\/?exchange=BINANCE\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The metric signals impending volatility. The trend will largely depend on the direction of the breakout from the range, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2025\/05\/05\/ether-bitcoin-squeeze-hints-at-imminent-volatility-as-ethereum-spectra-upgrade-nears\">noted<\/a> CoinDesk co-managing editor Omkar Godbole.<\/p>\n<p>In his view, Pectra is the potential driver.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cL2 networks will benefit the most. By doubling <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/how-eip-4844-will-affect-ordinary-ethereum-users\">BLOB<\/a> capacity and making call data more expensive, Pectra cements binary arrays as the standard for posting rollup data. This strengthens Ethereum\u2019s role as a data-availability layer and reinforces the <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/ethereum-foundation-shifts-focus-to-l1-scaling-and-user-experience-enhancement\">scaling strategy<\/a>,\u201d Nansen analysts noted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, Bernstein outlined the drivers that could take bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bernstein-sets-out-the-drivers-of-bitcoins-march-to-1m\">to $1 million.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin sits at a \u201cdecision point\u201d, several metrics suggest. Investors await any easing of the US\u2013China trade war. Ethereum may be primed for a breakout. Bitcoin is at a \u201cdecision point\u201d, and a break from the current range is crucial, according to analyst James Check. In my view, it&#8217;s pretty important that Bitcoin clears this [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1146,1150,1138],"class_list":["post-23671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-news-plus","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"16","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23671","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23671"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23671\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}