{"id":22676,"date":"2025-04-03T11:41:33","date_gmt":"2025-04-03T08:41:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/arthur-hayes-identifies-a-critical-support-level-for-bitcoin\/"},"modified":"2025-04-03T11:41:33","modified_gmt":"2025-04-03T08:41:33","slug":"arthur-hayes-identifies-a-critical-support-level-for-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/arthur-hayes-identifies-a-critical-support-level-for-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes identifies a critical support level for bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-keypoints article_keypoints\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>After \u201cLiberation Day,\u201d it is important for bitcoin to hold above $76,500 through 15 April, says Arthur Hayes.<\/li>\n<li>Anticipation of retaliatory steps against US trade tariffs is injecting uncertainty into markets.<\/li>\n<li>The new tariffs will hit the US bitcoin-mining industry.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>If bitcoin holds $76,500 through US tax day on 15 April, the market will shed the uncertainty and volatility triggered by US trade tariffs, according to BitMEX cofounder Arthur Hayes.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Mrkt no likey &#8220;Liberation Day&#8221;, if <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> can hold $76.5k btw now and US tax day Apr 15, then we are out of the woods. Don&#8217;t get chopped up!<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoHayes\/status\/1907547718681244009?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 2, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThe market doesn\u2019t like \u2018Liberation Day\u2019,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>On April 2, US president Donald Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/trump-declares-liberation-day-with-new-tariffs\">announced<\/a> new tariffs for trading partners. A 10% minimum for all countries will take effect on April 5. For a number of partners, \u201creciprocal tariffs\u201d roughly half the level those countries levy on American goods will be introduced. These measures will start on April 9.<\/p>\n<p>Retaliatory tariffs for China will be 54%, for the EU \u2014 20%, Vietnam \u2014 46%, Taiwan \u2014 32%, Japan \u2014 24%, India \u2014 26%, and South Korea \u2014 25%.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Markets reacted negatively<\/h2>\n<p>During Trump\u2019s remarks, the market capitalisation of the S&amp;P 500 index fell by more than $2 trillion in just 16 minutes, noted The Kobeissi Letter.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">This clip will go down in history:<\/p>\n<p>At 4:25 PM ET, S&#038;P 500 futures were trading +1.7% higher.<\/p>\n<p>At 4:26 PM ET, Howard Lutnick handed a poster outlining &#8220;reciprocal tariffs&#8221; to President Trump.<\/p>\n<p>Stock market futures fell REAL-TIME as Trump read off tariffs name by name.<\/p>\n<p>By 4:42 PM\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8vehJNDgBn\">https:\/\/t.co\/8vehJNDgBn<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/odOkvY5ubD\">pic.twitter.com\/odOkvY5ubD<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KobeissiLetter\/status\/1907556839686054240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 2, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cNasdaq 100 futures are currently trading 850 points lower after a 400-point rally earlier in the day. That puts us on track for the biggest daily reversal in 2025. Buckle up for more volatility,\u201d the site\u2019s authors said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>After the president\u2019s briefing began, bitcoin rose to around $88,550, then fell alongside traditional markets. Prices approached $82,300; after a bounce, the asset is trading around ~$83,700.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"616\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSD_2025-04-03_11-29-52-1024x616.png\" alt=\"BTCUSD_2025-04-03_11-29-52\" class=\"wp-image-255658\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSD_2025-04-03_11-29-52-1024x616.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSD_2025-04-03_11-29-52-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSD_2025-04-03_11-29-52-768x462.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSD_2025-04-03_11-29-52.png 1327w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">15-minute BTC\/USD chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSD\/?exchange=BINANCE\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to 25, into the \u201cextreme fear\u201d zone, over the past day. On the eve of \u201cLiberation Day,\u201d the metric had been edging higher.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Crypto-Fear-Greed-Index-Bitcoin-Sentiment-Alternative.me-Google-Chrome-5.webp\" alt=\"Crypto-Fear-Greed-Index-Bitcoin-Sentiment-Alternative.me-Google-Chrome-5\" class=\"wp-image-255659\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/alternative.me\/crypto\/fear-and-greed-index\/\">Alternative<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Economic uncertainty will fuel volatility<\/h2>\n<p>Rachel Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, told <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/national-emergency-trump-tariffs-dent-crypto-prices\">Cointelegraph<\/a> that the brief price spike in bitcoin was driven by \u201creduced uncertainty.\u201d But once the full tariff details emerged, selling followed. The platform recorded a 46% rise in trading volumes.<\/p>\n<p>In her view, if economically strong players respond with tariffs, it could trigger another wave of panic selling.<\/p>\n<p>US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent urged the country\u2019s trading partners in a Bloomberg interview to refrain from retaliatory steps. Doing so, he said, would provide a \u201cceiling\u201d and certainty for markets.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged US trading partners against taking retaliatory steps against Trump\u2019s new set of retaliatory tariffs <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FXcbsWiFBY\">https:\/\/t.co\/FXcbsWiFBY<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1907565018117276111?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 2, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>China, Canada and the European Union have already announced countermeasures.<\/p>\n<p>Nansen\u2019s chief analyst, Aur\u00e9lie Barter, <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/nansen-predicts-crypto-market-bottom-by-june\">noted<\/a> the forthcoming results of negotiations on reciprocal trade tariffs as the key factor for crypto-market dynamics. By her estimate, the toughest part of the talks will be over by June, and during that period digital assets have a 70% chance of bottoming.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US miners under pressure<\/h2>\n<p>Alexander Blum, CEO of Two Prime Digital Assets, told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/post\/349397\/crypto-markets-fall-after-trump-lays-out-sweeping-reciprocal-tariffs-ethereum-solana-drop-6\">The Block<\/a> about a less obvious dimension of the decision\u2019s impact on crypto.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThe bitcoin-mining industry relies exclusively on ASIC chips that are supplied from China. Higher tariffs on this product will increase miners\u2019 production costs and reduce business profitability. As a result, firms may be unable to compete with non-US peers,\u201d the expert said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In the view of Hive Digital\u2019s CFO, Darcy Daubaras, high equipment prices in the US will likely squeeze out less efficient miners. That would lower network difficulty and boost profitability for players with lower operating costs, she added.<\/p>\n<p>Blum believes economic uncertainty will shift investment strategies \u2014 with more money flowing into stores of value such as bitcoin and gold.<\/p>\n<p>He also suggested that additional tariff revenues give the US government the opportunity to acquire more of the first cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cTrump <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/trump-establishes-u-s-strategic-bitcoin-reserve\">signed an order<\/a> to consider the possibility of acquiring bitcoins, if this is done in budget-neutral ways. This new source of federal income could be the answer,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In March, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/cryptoquant-ceo-declares-end-of-bitcoin-bull-market\">that the bull market for digital gold had ended<\/a>. He forecast that over the next six to 12 months, prices would fall or move sideways.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After \u201cLiberation Day,\u201d it is important for bitcoin to hold above $76,500 through 15 April, says Arthur Hayes. Anticipation of retaliatory steps against US trade tariffs is injecting uncertainty into markets. The new tariffs will hit the US bitcoin-mining industry. If bitcoin holds $76,500 through US tax day on 15 April, the market will shed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22675,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1193,1146,1137,991,1150,26],"class_list":["post-22676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-cryptocurrency-mining","tag-donald-trump","tag-news-plus","tag-usa"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"36","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22676","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22676"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22676\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22675"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22676"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22676"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22676"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}