{"id":21499,"date":"2025-02-25T17:39:54","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T15:39:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/arthur-hayes-predicts-bitcoin-could-drop-to-70000-due-to-etf-outflows\/"},"modified":"2025-02-25T17:39:54","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T15:39:54","slug":"arthur-hayes-predicts-bitcoin-could-drop-to-70000-due-to-etf-outflows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/arthur-hayes-predicts-bitcoin-could-drop-to-70000-due-to-etf-outflows\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Could Drop to $70,000 Due to ETF Outflows"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The price of the leading cryptocurrency could fall to $70,000 if hedge funds liquidate positions in spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on it, according to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> goblin town incoming:<br \/>Lots of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24IBIT&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$IBIT<\/a> holders are hedge funds that went long ETF short CME future to earn a yield greater than where they fund, short term US treasuries.<\/p>\n<p>If that basis drops as <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> falls, then these funds will sell <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24IBIT&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$IBIT<\/a> and buy back CME futures. <\/p>\n<p>These\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3PskTxrBPR\">pic.twitter.com\/3PskTxrBPR<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoHayes\/status\/1894170405386293703?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The expert noted that the holders of these products aim to capture the so-called &#8220;basis spread,&#8221; which arises from the difference between longs in ETFs and shorts on futures traded on the <span data-descr=\"Chicago Mercantile Exchange\" class=\"old_tooltip\">CME<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>This strategy is appealing to hedge funds when the yield exceeds that of short-term US Treasury bonds.<\/p>\n<p>In a scenario where this spread disappears, open positions in ETFs and futures will be unwound, leading to a drop in the price of the leading cryptocurrency to $70,000, Hayes believes.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, 10x Research also highlighted<a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/report-institutional-demand-for-bitcoin-overstated\"> the significant role of arbitrage hedge funds<\/a> in the demand for exchange-traded products.<\/p>\n<p>If the price of the underlying asset falls, the futures premium shrinks, prompting the sale of ETFs and increasing pressure on derivative prices. This exacerbates negative dynamics in the spot market, creating a feedback loop where even more funds rush to &#8220;cash out.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>In February, amid <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-falls-to-new-yearly-lows-below-89000-2\">a downturn<\/a> in the cryptocurrency market, net outflows from BTC-ETFs reached <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sosovalue.com\/assets\/etf\/us-btc-spot\">$516.41 million<\/a>. This figure was a record for February and the third largest since the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n<p>According to a forecast by Bitwise, in 2025, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs could <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitwise-projects-50-billion-inflows-into-spot-bitcoin-etfs-by-2025\">exceed $50 billion<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The price of the leading cryptocurrency could fall to $70,000 if hedge funds liquidate positions in spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on it, according to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes. #Bitcoin goblin town incoming:Lots of $IBIT holders are hedge funds that went long ETF short CME future to earn a yield greater than where they [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21498,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1193,1168,1146,569],"class_list":["post-21499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-crypto-derivatives","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-etf"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"24","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21499"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21499\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21498"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}