{"id":21310,"date":"2025-02-19T17:08:27","date_gmt":"2025-02-19T15:08:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/cryptoquant-ceo-identifies-bitcoin-price-for-bear-market-onset\/"},"modified":"2025-02-19T17:08:27","modified_gmt":"2025-02-19T15:08:27","slug":"cryptoquant-ceo-identifies-bitcoin-price-for-bear-market-onset","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/cryptoquant-ceo-identifies-bitcoin-price-for-bear-market-onset\/","title":{"rendered":"CryptoQuant CEO Identifies Bitcoin Price for Bear Market Onset"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-keypoints article_keypoints\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The bitcoin bull market will persist even with a drop to $77,000.<\/li>\n<li>The critical level for the cryptocurrency is lower.<\/li>\n<li>Macroeconomic factors and the post-halving cycle influence prices, which do not rule out corrections.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>The bullish phase of bitcoin will continue even if the price falls by 30% from its peak \u2014 to around $77,000. This was stated by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, citing historical data.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I don\u2019t think we\u2019ll enter a bear market this year.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad.<\/p>\n<p>I personally think that the bull cycle could continue even with a -30% dip from ATH (e.g., 110K \u2192 77K), as seen in past cycles.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/1892100930897637693?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 19, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t think we\u2019ll enter a bear market this year. We\u2019re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad,\u201d the expert noted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>He highlighted data on the realized price of the first cryptocurrency by categories. The metric considers the average cost of the asset in all past transactions.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/GkIHnH0aAAEjSJV-1024x600.png\" alt=\"GkIHnH0aAAEjSJV\" class=\"wp-image-252183\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/GkIHnH0aAAEjSJV-1024x600.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/GkIHnH0aAAEjSJV-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/GkIHnH0aAAEjSJV-768x450.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/GkIHnH0aAAEjSJV-1536x901.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/GkIHnH0aAAEjSJV.png 1912w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/1892100930897637693\">X<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The entry point values are:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>for custodial wallets of spot ETFs or \u201cnew whales\u201d \u2014 ~$89,000;<\/li>\n<li>for trader deposits on Binance \u2014 ~$59,000;<\/li>\n<li>for balances of large miners \u2014 ~$57,000.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The breach of the breakeven level for the latter category has historically confirmed the transition to a bull market. This occurred in November 2018, March 2020, and May 2022, emphasized the head of CryptoQuant.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Macroeconomics, Halving, and Other Factors<\/h2>\n<p>Since the beginning of the year, bitcoin has traded in the range of $90,000-110,000. At the time of writing, quotes are near ~$96,300.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSD_2025-02-19_15-19-11.webp\" alt=\"BTCUSD_2025-02-19_15-19-11\" class=\"wp-image-252184\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Daily BTC\/USD chart on Binance. Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSD\/?exchange=BINANCE\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In late January, analyst Ali Martinez <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/analyst-identifies-critical-level-for-bitcoins-bull-run-continuation\">identified<\/a> the price of $97,877 as a key support level for maintaining bullish momentum.<\/p>\n<p>In February, experts identified three factors that could cause bitcoin to fall from its current range. These include: tightening fiat liquidity, the Trump administration&#8217;s delay in creating a national BTC reserve, and technical analysis data.<\/p>\n<p>Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes suggested a pullback of the cryptocurrency to $70,000-75,000. He cited disappointment in Trump&#8217;s policies as a potential driver of price movement.<\/p>\n<p>Key developer of the Hadron Founders Club project and venture investor known as chainyoda generally agreed with Ki Young Ju&#8217;s opinion.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Makes sense. We are in the fourth year of the four year cycle with stocks at ATH. 30% drawdown is possible. Question is how likely a 70% drawdown is if stocks correct 20%. Not likely but only a sharp stocks crash can flip ETF and corporate flows that hard<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 chainyoda (@chainyoda) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/chainyoda\/status\/1892109104417513888?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 19, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>However, he noted that the stock market is in the final year of a four-year cycle with stocks reaching <span data-descr=\"all-time high\" class=\"old_tooltip\">ATH<\/span>. A 30% drop is possible.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThe question is how likely a 70% bitcoin drawdown is if stocks correct even by 20%. Unlikely, but a stock market crash could significantly reverse corporate flows into ETFs,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>CryptoQuant author and on-chain analyst Timo Oinonen concluded that the first cryptocurrency has not yet exhausted its growth potential in the post-halving cycle. After <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-undergoes-fourth-halving\">the block reward was halved<\/a> on April 20, 2024, the asset&#8217;s price increased by only 63%, he emphasized.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Comparing Post-Halving Performance<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDespite the continuing halving cycle, I&#8217;d expect to see a &#8216;sell in May&#8217; effect, a sideways summer, and elevated price levels by the last quarter.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/oinonen_t?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@oinonen_t<\/a> <\/p>\n<p>Read more ?<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bvZ8eJTKNE\">https:\/\/t.co\/bvZ8eJTKNE<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FurLSqddys\">pic.twitter.com\/FurLSqddys<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/1891547912376631344?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 17, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Referring to historical data, he noted:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cI expect to see a sell-off in May, a sideways summer, and price growth by the last quarter. Positive seasonality in Q4 repeated in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024. A deeper correction is possible in a few months or even a year.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>As reported in CryptoQuant, there is a risk of bitcoin entering a bearish phase due to declining investor risk appetite.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The bitcoin bull market will persist even with a drop to $77,000. The critical level for the cryptocurrency is lower. Macroeconomic factors and the post-halving cycle influence prices, which do not rule out corrections. The bullish phase of bitcoin will continue even if the price falls by 30% from its peak \u2014 to around $77,000. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1146,1205,1145,1150],"class_list":["post-21310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-cryptoquant","tag-market-analysis","tag-news-plus"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"32","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21310","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21310"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21310\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}