{"id":20848,"date":"2025-02-02T18:52:20","date_gmt":"2025-02-02T16:52:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/week-in-review-deepseek-shock-fed-hold-and-us-tariffs\/"},"modified":"2025-02-02T18:52:20","modified_gmt":"2025-02-02T16:52:20","slug":"week-in-review-deepseek-shock-fed-hold-and-us-tariffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/week-in-review-deepseek-shock-fed-hold-and-us-tariffs\/","title":{"rendered":"Week in review: DeepSeek shock, Fed hold and US tariffs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>China\u2019s DeepSeek startled markets, the <span data-descr=\"United States Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span> kept its key rate unchanged, US tariffs triggered a bitcoin correction, mining difficulty eased, and other highlights from the week.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Rates and \u2018trade wars\u2019<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>It was a choppy, highly volatile week in crypto. Monday opened with a pullback: bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-price-dips-below-100000\">plunged<\/a> from $105,000 to $99,700, dragging other digital assets with it.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts linked the decline to profit-taking amid President Donald Trump\u2019s regulatory <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/white-house-working-group-to-assess-a-national-crypto-reserve\">initiative<\/a> to create a cryptocurrency task force.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSDT_2025-02-02_18-37-10-1024x453.png\" alt=\"BTCUSDT_2025-02-02_18-37-10\" class=\"wp-image-250967\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSDT_2025-02-02_18-37-10-1024x453.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSDT_2025-02-02_18-37-10-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSDT_2025-02-02_18-37-10-768x340.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTCUSDT_2025-02-02_18-37-10.png 1355w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Data: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSDT\/?exchange=BINANCE\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The first half of the week saw the asset recoup losses, briefly topping $105,000 on 30 January after the Fed meeting.<\/p>\n<p>The regulator <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-surges-past-105000-following-fed-meeting\">kept<\/a> the target range for the policy rate at 4.25\u20134.5% per annum, in line with expectations. Chair Jerome Powell noted the possibility of US banks engaging with cryptocurrencies provided risks are properly managed.<\/p>\n<p>However, the Fed considers inflation still far from the 2% target.<\/p>\n<p>The post-meeting bounce proved short-lived: on Friday bitcoin began another swift slide. The market was further unsettled by Trump\u2019s decision to impose tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Today-I-have-implemented-a-25-Tariff-on-Imports.webp\" alt=\"Today-I-have-implemented-a-25-Tariff-on-Imports\" class=\"wp-image-250968\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: TruthSocial.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Equities had yet to react to the \u201ctrade wars\u201d, but on Sunday digital gold slipped below $100,000. Daily liquidations in crypto exceeded $500m.<\/p>\n<p>Other top-ten assets by market capitalisation were also in the red. Ethereum fell below $3,100, losing 7% on the week.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Snimok-ekrana-2025-02-02-v-16.49.21.webp\" alt=\"Snimok-ekrana-2025-02-02-v-16.49.21\" class=\"wp-image-250969\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: CoinGecko.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Solana shed 17.5%, Dogecoin 15.9% and XRP 10.3%.<\/p>\n<p>Total crypto market capitalisation stands at $3.53trn (-5.6%).<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s dominance is 56.5%; Ethereum\u2019s is 10.7%.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Chinese AI rattles markets<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>On 20 January the Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek released an open-source reasoning model, DeepSeek-R1. Over the past weekend the model drew strong attention, prompting sell-offs in equities and crypto at the start of the week.<\/p>\n<p>The chatbot quickly climbed the US App Store\u2019s free-app rankings, overtaking even ChatGPT.<\/p>\n<p>The main reason for the frenzy is cost. Only $5.6m was spent on developing DeepSeek, compared with hundreds of millions for American rivals. The product also needs far fewer graphics processors and can run on gaming <span data-descr=\"graphics processing unit\" class=\"old_tooltip\">GPU<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>In several tests the Chinese model outperformed the latest Llama 3.1, GPT-4o and Claude Sonnet 3.5. Independent specialists assessed accuracy, problem-solving, mathematics and programming.<\/p>\n<p>DeepSeek also surprised observers by apparently bypassing US export restrictions. Even Telegram founder Pavel Durov <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/durov-identifies-key-factors-behind-deepseeks-success\">drew attention<\/a> to the app.<\/p>\n<p>The chatbot\u2019s success triggered a sell-off in the tech sector, including Nvidia. The chipmaker\u2019s shares <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/NVDA\/\">fell<\/a> 15% over the trading week.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Snimok-ekrana-2025-02-02-v-18.39.02.webp\" alt=\"Snimok-ekrana-2025-02-02-v-18.39.02\" class=\"wp-image-250970\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: Yahoo Finance.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Crypto also corrected, particularly AI-linked tokens \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/categories\/artificial-intelligence\">down 21%<\/a> over seven days.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the blow, DeepSeek spurred companies to accelerate. On 28 January Alibaba <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/alibaba-unveils-a-challenger-to-deepseek\">unveiled<\/a> a \u201cDeepSeek killer\u201d, and OpenAI added the o3-mini model to ChatGPT.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"forklogAI\/5654\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The hype around DeepSeek did not come without scandal. First, the company was suspected of stealing data from OpenAI; later, researchers <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/deepseek-user-data-exposed-in-database-leak\">found<\/a> a leak of user data from the app.<\/p>\n<p>The model is also criticised for traditional Chinese censorship.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Mining difficulty freezes<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>On 27 January, after the latest adjustment, bitcoin\u2019s mining difficulty fell by 2.12%.<\/p>\n<p>The metric eased to 108.11 T from the earlier <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-sets-another-record\">peak<\/a> of 110.45 T. This was the first decline since September 2024.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"631\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Difficulty-BitcoinBTC-CloverPool-formerly-BTC.com-The-worlds-leading-multi-currency-mining-pool-and-on-chain-data-service-p-1.webp\" alt=\"Difficulty-BitcoinBTC-CloverPool-formerly-BTC.com-The-worlds-leading-multi-currency-mining-pool-and-on-chain-data-service-p-1\" class=\"wp-image-250971\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Difficulty-BitcoinBTC-CloverPool-formerly-BTC.com-The-worlds-leading-multi-currency-mining-pool-and-on-chain-data-service-p-1.webp 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Difficulty-BitcoinBTC-CloverPool-formerly-BTC.com-The-worlds-leading-multi-currency-mining-pool-and-on-chain-data-service-p-1-300x185.webp 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Difficulty-BitcoinBTC-CloverPool-formerly-BTC.com-The-worlds-leading-multi-currency-mining-pool-and-on-chain-data-service-p-1-768x473.webp 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: CloverPool.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/metrics?a=BTC&#038;category=&#038;ema=0&#038;m=mining.HashRateMean&#038;mAvg=7&#038;mMedian=0&#038;s=1659268705&#038;u=1674993505&#038;zoom=182\">Glassnode<\/a>, on 2 January the hash rate (seven-day moving average) reached a high of 818.7 EH\/s. At the time of writing it stands at 808 EH\/s.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/glassnode-studio_mean-hash-rate-3-1024x576.png\" alt=\"glassnode-studio_mean-hash-rate-3\" class=\"wp-image-250972\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/glassnode-studio_mean-hash-rate-3-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/glassnode-studio_mean-hash-rate-3-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/glassnode-studio_mean-hash-rate-3-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/glassnode-studio_mean-hash-rate-3-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/glassnode-studio_mean-hash-rate-3.png 1800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The difficulty adjustment is attributed to bitcoin\u2019s price drop and cold weather in the US. According to Luxor, lower temperatures in the south of the United States pushed up electricity prices, squeezing the profitability of digital-gold mining.<\/p>\n<p>Amid the weather-related disruption, miners\u2019 revenue fell from $2.46 per TH\/s in December to $2.19 per TH\/s in January.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"573\" height=\"417\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Bitcoin-Miner-Revenue-per-THs-Monthly-1.webp\" alt=\"Bitcoin-Miner-Revenue-per-THs-Monthly-1\" class=\"wp-image-250973\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Bitcoin-Miner-Revenue-per-THs-Monthly-1.webp 573w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Bitcoin-Miner-Revenue-per-THs-Monthly-1-300x218.webp 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 573px) 100vw, 573px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: The Block.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Luxor regards the drop in difficulty and miner revenues as temporary, expecting metrics to resume rising once conditions improve in the United States.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, CryptoQuant\u2019s head of research Julio Moreno noted that bitcoin\u2019s mempool is almost empty and fees are around 1 sat\/vB. Transaction activity on the network has fallen to March 2024 levels.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-663.webp\" alt=\"image-663\" class=\"wp-image-250976\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: X.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What to discuss with friends?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Uniswap Labs <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/uniswap-labs-launches-uniswap-v4\">launched<\/a> Uniswap v4.<\/li>\n<li>Ethereum developers <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/ethereum-developers-address-vulnerability-in-leading-client\">patched<\/a> a vulnerability in the most popular client.<\/li>\n<li>Changpeng Zhao <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/changpeng-zhao-on-ethereums-outlook-and-the-reasons-for-solanas-surge\">spoke<\/a> about Ethereum\u2019s prospects and the reasons for Solana\u2019s surge.<\/li>\n<li>Standard Chartered <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/standard-chartered-says-buy-bitcoin-on-weakness\">urged<\/a> buying bitcoin on dips.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A bitcoin reserve in the Czech Republic<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>This week Ale\u0161 Michl, head of the Czech National Bank (CNB), <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/czech-national-bank-chief-proposes-bitcoin-investment-for-state-reserves\">proposed<\/a> to the board the option of diversifying the state reserve by investing in the first cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n<p>The initiative envisages allocating up to 5% of the \u20ac140bn reserves to digital gold, acknowledging the asset\u2019s growing global appeal.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cIf I compare my point of view with other bankers, I am a jungle explorer or a pioneer. I used to manage an investment fund, so I am a typical investment banker. I would say I like the profitability [of bitcoin],\u201d noted the head of CNB.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>At the same time, Michl did not rule out that investments in cryptocurrency could turn out to be useless, recalling the cases of <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/enrons-parody-resurgence-sparks-token-curiosity\">Enron<\/a> and Wirecard.<\/p>\n<p>According to the regulator\u2019s calculations, had the CNB held 5% of foreign reserves in bitcoin over the past decade, its annual return would have been 3.5 percentage points higher, with volatility doubling.<\/p>\n<p>Later, the Central Bank of the Czech Republic <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/czech-central-bank-considers-bitcoin-for-reserve-diversification\">approved<\/a> a proposal to analyse possibilities for investing in additional asset classes, including bitcoin. Based on the findings, the CNB will decide on next steps.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Exchange troubles<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Over the past week several centralised crypto exchanges (CEX) ran into difficulties. On Tuesday reports emerged of the start of an investigation by French law enforcement into Binance. <strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The platform is accused of money laundering, tax fraud, illegal drug trafficking and other unlawful activity. Later, the Office for Combating Economic and Financial Crime at the Paris Prosecutor\u2019s Office clarified that it is examining possible offences from 2019 to 2024.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cBinance fully denies the accusations and will vigorously fight any charges brought against it,\u201d said a Binance representative.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>It also emerged that the <span data-descr=\"US Securities and Exchange Commission\" class=\"old_tooltip\">SEC<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/sec-secures-partial-victory-in-kraken-case\">won<\/a> a partial victory in its case against Kraken. California judge William Orrick dismissed one of the defence\u2019s arguments concerning the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Major_questions_doctrine\">major-questions doctrine<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, the judge found merit in Kraken\u2019s arguments about not receiving \u201cfair notice\u201d from the regulator of a violation of the law. The exchange has been litigating with the regulator since 2023 over allegations of offering unregistered securities in the form of digital tokens on its platform.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, KuCoin <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/kucoin-fined-300-million-for-unlicensed-operations\">admitted<\/a> operating an unlicensed money-transmission business in the US and agreed to pay nearly $300m in fines and restitution.<\/p>\n<p>The week\u2019s last high-profile setback among CEX was the <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/ukrainian-cryptocurrency-exchange-kuna-to-cease-operations\">closure<\/a> of Ukrainian crypto exchange Kuna. Its founder, Mikhail Chobanyan, decided to wind down the company\u2019s operations in all countries.<\/p>\n<p>Users were given two months to withdraw funds.<\/p>\n<p>Before that, Ukraine\u2019s State Service of Special Communications blocked the exchange\u2019s domain under a decision by Kyiv\u2019s Shevchenkivskyi District Court at the request of the Bureau of Economic Security. According to Chobanyan, the essence of the claim is allegations of tax non-payment.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cWhat taxes, on what \u2014 I do not yet know, but we will definitely find out. I am curious by what formula and from which specific activity they calculated the shortfall,\u201d said the founder of the exchange.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Also on ForkLog:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Glassnode <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/glassnode-compares-current-bitcoin-bull-run-to-previous-cycles\">compared<\/a> the current and previous bitcoin bull runs.<\/li>\n<li>Rising interest in DeFi <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/defi-resurgence-spurs-37-increase-in-active-ethereum-addresses\">led<\/a> to a 37% jump in active Ethereum addresses.<\/li>\n<li>Meta <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/meta-to-maintain-high-ai-spending-despite-deepseek-concerns\">will maintain<\/a> high AI spending.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/cointelegraph-forecasts-bitcoin-at-150000-altcoins-at-3trn-and-dex-volumes-above-4trn\">Cointelegraph forecasts<\/a>: bitcoin at $150,000, altcoins at $3trn and DEX volumes above $4trn.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What else to read?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>In a new piece we <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/a-worms-neural-net-on-chain-and-pump-science-desci-steps-up-a-gear\">examined<\/a> how the decentralised-science ecosystem will develop in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Our regular digest gathered the week\u2019s main events in cybersecurity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China\u2019s DeepSeek startled markets, the Fed kept its key rate unchanged, US tariffs triggered a bitcoin correction, mining difficulty eased, and other highlights from the week. Rates and \u2018trade wars\u2019 It was a choppy, highly volatile week in crypto. Monday opened with a pullback: bitcoin plunged from $105,000 to $99,700, dragging other digital assets with [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20847,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1233,1244],"class_list":["post-20848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-industry-digests","tag-weekly-summary"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"26","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20848","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20848"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20848\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20847"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20848"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20848"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20848"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}