{"id":13086,"date":"2024-04-30T16:27:02","date_gmt":"2024-04-30T13:27:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bitcoins-price-floor-predicted-between-60000-and-66700\/"},"modified":"2024-04-30T16:27:02","modified_gmt":"2024-04-30T13:27:02","slug":"bitcoins-price-floor-predicted-between-60000-and-66700","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/bitcoins-price-floor-predicted-between-60000-and-66700\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin&#8217;s Price Floor Predicted Between $60,000 and $66,700"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin has entered a broad distribution phase after reaching a new <span data-descr=\"all-time high\" class=\"old_tooltip\">ATH<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-surpasses-72000-mark\">above $73,000<\/a>. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/the-week-onchain-week-18-2024\/\">Glassnode<\/a>, a price floor is currently forming between $60,000 and $66,700.<\/p>\n<p>Experts have concluded that the euphoria following the correction has weakened but is not yet exhausted.<\/p>\n<p>The Accumulation Trend Score metric illustrates how investor accumulation patterns relate to local peaks and troughs since the FTX collapse.<\/p>\n<p>In the early stages of the bull markets of 2020-21 and 2023-24, local distribution phases (light colors) coincided with price declines.<\/p>\n<p>As prices reach new highs, selling pressure intensifies as investors bring dormant supply back to the market to meet growing demand.<\/p>\n<p>In mid-March, when the price reached ATH, a similar pattern was observed. News of the Middle East conflict intensified the correction to $60,300. The indicator&#8217;s structure showed a uniform outflow of coins across all wallet categories.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-1013.webp\" alt=\"1-1013\" class=\"wp-image-231798\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A unique characteristic of the prevailing bull market has been the positive impact of BTC-ETF on price dynamics. This effect can be explained using the Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss (<a href=\"https:\/\/studio.glassnode.com\/metrics?a=BTC&#038;m=indicators.NetUnrealizedProfitLoss&#038;mAvg=7\">NUPL<\/a>) indicator, which is based on the last movement of coins.<\/p>\n<p>A sign of entering the euphoria phase is when the metric exceeds 0.5. In the 2020-21 cycle, this phase occurred 8.5 months after the halving, followed by a steady rise over the next 10.5 months.<\/p>\n<p>In the current cycle, NUPL reached 0.5 six and a half months before the halving. This shift underscores the significance of ETFs.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2-779.webp\" alt=\"2-779\" class=\"wp-image-231799\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The euphoria phase has now lasted seven months.<\/p>\n<p>Even the strongest upward trends experience corrections. These events provide valuable insights into investor positioning and sentiment, experts noted. Their analysis relied on two conditions:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Relative unrealized profit (?> 0.5) indicates a large volume of &#8220;paper&#8221; profits has accumulated in the market;<\/li>\n<li>Relative unrealized loss (?> 0.01) suggests investors face significant financial pressure, incurring large &#8220;paper&#8221; losses during downturns.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The charts below demonstrate that corrections are a normal and expected occurrence in all bull markets. Since reaching ATH, this structure has manifested in three separate pullbacks to the ~$60,000 zone.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/3-452.webp\" alt=\"3-452\" class=\"wp-image-231800\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Experts identified that the main selling pressure currently comes from recent buyers realizing &#8220;paper&#8221; losses.<\/p>\n<p>In this category, coin holders aged one to three months and three to six months are valuable tools for identifying bull and bear market structures.<\/p>\n<p>The week-to-month group corresponds to trend inflection points, helping to identify potential local bottoms (in bulls) and local tops (in bears).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/4-291.webp\" alt=\"4-291\" class=\"wp-image-231801\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Analysts concluded that Bitcoin&#8217;s price often reacts to the &#8220;cost&#8221; of purchases over a week-to-month horizon. This is because recent buyers are more price-sensitive and more likely to offload Bitcoin in the short term.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, during a bull market correction, short-term holders tend to increase spending. As the price approaches the acquisition cost of coins by each subgroup, their spending rates are expected to slow (a phenomenon known as &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/e\/exhaustion.asp\">seller exhaustion<\/a>&#8220;).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/5-185.webp\" alt=\"5-185\" class=\"wp-image-231802\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Experts have developed a set of tools to identify potential local inflection points for week-to-month old Bitcoins:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>MVRV in the range of 0.9-1;<\/li>\n<li>60DMA realized loss exceeds one standard deviation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>According to analysts, the price typically falls a maximum of 10% below the average acquisition cost of coins by investors with a week-to-month horizon. Price extremes often coincide with peak panic among this market participant category, when their realized losses exceed one standard deviation.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, the &#8220;cost&#8221; of week-to-month old Bitcoins is $66,700. Since mid-March, the realized loss of their holders has exceeded the significant level mentioned above several times.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;As the price is in the range of $60,000 to $66,700, the MVRV condition is met, and it can be argued that the market is forming a local bottom. A sustained break below the metric level could trigger a panic cascade, prompting a quest to establish a new equilibrium,&#8221;<\/em> concluded the experts.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/6-133.webp\" alt=\"6-133\" class=\"wp-image-231803\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Data: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Earlier, analyst Peter Brandt suggested a 25% likelihood of the bull market ending despite the halving.<\/p>\n<p>Previously, in comments to ForkLog, experts explained post-halving dynamics and forecasted future developments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin has entered a broad distribution phase after reaching a new ATH above $73,000. According to Glassnode, a price floor is currently forming between $60,000 and $66,700. Experts have concluded that the euphoria following the correction has weakened but is not yet exhausted. The Accumulation Trend Score metric illustrates how investor accumulation patterns relate to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13085,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1146,1273,1150,1268],"class_list":["post-13086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-glassnode","tag-news-plus","tag-on-chain-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"42","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13086","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13086"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13086\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13085"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13086"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}