{"id":10099,"date":"2024-01-24T17:48:18","date_gmt":"2024-01-24T15:48:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/arthur-hayes-predicts-bitcoin-drop-below-35000-amid-excessive-inflation\/"},"modified":"2024-01-24T17:48:18","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T15:48:18","slug":"arthur-hayes-predicts-bitcoin-drop-below-35000-amid-excessive-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/arthur-hayes-predicts-bitcoin-drop-below-35000-amid-excessive-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Drop Below $35,000 Amid &#8220;Excessive&#8221; Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-text-wrappers-keypoints article_keypoints\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Arthur Hayes has forecasted a decline in Bitcoin prices below $35,000, citing the Federal Reserve&#8217;s policies and Middle Eastern conflicts as key factors.<\/li>\n<li>Other crypto experts are divided, with expectations ranging from $20,000 to $60,000.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>The leading cryptocurrency faces the risk of falling below $35,000 due to global macroeconomic and political upheavals, according to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes in his new essay <span data-descr=\"a play on words \u2014 the surname of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sounds like the English word 'yelling'\" class=\"old_tooltip\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptohayes.substack.com\/p\/yellen-or-talkin\">Yellen or Talkin<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Hayes highlighted several factors that could negatively impact Bitcoin&#8217;s price:\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>the policies of the <span data-descr=\"Federal Reserve System of the USA\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Federal Reserve<\/span> and &#8220;excessive&#8221; inflation;<\/li>\n<li>conflicts in the Middle East, including clashes in Yemen;<\/li>\n<li>the US presidential elections.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, are anticipating a &#8220;pivot&#8221; from the Federal Reserve in March this year \u2014 a reduction in interest rates is expected to bring liquidity back to the market, the expert noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, Hayes believes that due to the current political situation, shipping costs may rise, leading to a price surge in the third or fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve and its chairman Jerome Powell will attempt to mitigate the consequences:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Moderate inflation growth due to increased shipping costs could be exacerbated by rate cuts and the resumption of quantitative easing. The market has yet to price this in, unlike Bitcoin.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The former BitMEX head emphasized that the risks from combating inflation are surpassed only by a potential financial crisis.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Considering these factors, the leading cryptocurrency might correct by 30% from a local high of $49,000 \u2014 down to $33,600.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Bitcoin is forming support between $30,000 and $35,000. That&#8217;s why I bought a strike put for March 29, 2024, at $35,000,&#8221; Hayes added.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In his view, levels below $35,000 now represent a &#8220;buy-the-dip opportunity.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Other Forecasts<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>According to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-01-23\/retail-investors-are-bearish-on-bitcoin-after-spot-etfs-launch-survey-shows\">Deutsche Bank<\/a> survey of 2000 clients, more than a third of respondents expect Bitcoin to fall below $20,000 by the end of the current year. Meanwhile, 15% predict a price between $45,000 and $70,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1x-1-12-1024x682.png\" alt=\"1x-1-12\" class=\"wp-image-224612\" style=\"width:623px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1x-1-12-1024x682.png 1024w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1x-1-12-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1x-1-12-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/u1f987.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/1x-1-12.png 1334w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Deutsche Bank respondents&#8217; forecasts. Source: Bloomberg.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Analysts Marion Laboure and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace from the bank believe that spot Bitcoin ETFs will &#8220;expand the institutionalization&#8221; of the asset. However, the study shows that most inflows into exchange-traded funds came from retail investors.<\/p>\n<p>Crypto influencer and Stock-to-Flow model creator known as PlanB has taken a more optimistic stance. In his view, the leading cryptocurrency has already consolidated around $40,000 and is preparing for a 50% rise \u2014 up to $60,000.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin consolidating a bit around 40k, gaining strength for the next +50% jump towards 60k <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9BMnGUKd5t\">pic.twitter.com\/9BMnGUKd5t<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 PlanB (@100trillionUSD) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/100trillionUSD\/status\/1749777227472949519?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 23, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Trader Robert Lucas noted that Bitcoin&#8217;s weekly cycle has already reached a local high. If a decline begins, the asset&#8217;s prices will fall to lows by mid-February and start recovering in March, the expert believes.<\/p>\n<p>Technical analyst and Factor LLC head Peter Brandt observed that the price of digital gold &#8220;completed a right-angled broadening triangle with negation above $42,400, confirming a bearish breakout.&#8221;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">General rule<br \/>Weekly chart more reliable than daily chart<br \/>Daily chart more reliable than intraday chart<br \/>Chart patterns fail more often than they work<br \/>Bitcoin has completed a right angled broadening triangle<br \/>Negated above 42,400 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oLI3rFZOHN\">pic.twitter.com\/oLI3rFZOHN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PeterLBrandt\/status\/1749577463909474631?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 22, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Earlier, Bitfinex experts pointed to risks of further Bitcoin decline to $36,000. According to the company&#8217;s report, bearish sentiments dominate the market.<\/p>\n<p>An analyst known as Ali studied the price patterns of the first cryptocurrency&#8217;s last two cycles and also suggested a potential decline in the coin&#8217;s prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arthur Hayes has forecasted a decline in Bitcoin prices below $35,000, citing the Federal Reserve&#8217;s policies and Middle Eastern conflicts as key factors. Other crypto experts are divided, with expectations ranging from $20,000 to $60,000. The leading cryptocurrency faces the risk of falling below $35,000 due to global macroeconomic and political upheavals, according to former [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10098,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"","news_style_id":"","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1193,18,1145,1150],"class_list":["post-10099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-market-analysis","tag-news-plus"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"22","promo_type":"","layout_type":"","short_excerpt":"","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10099"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10099\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10098"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/u1f987.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}