Retail investors in the leading cryptocurrency have nearly exited the market, with their activity dropping to a nine-year low, according to an analyst known as Darkfost.
💥 Retail activity hit an 9-year low.
Retail activity has reached a record low.
Retail investors are clearly absent from the market.— 💡In this chart, retail activity is represented by inflows below 1 BTC on Binance.
Binance remains the most widely used platform among this… pic.twitter.com/IS0tuCi2uD— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) April 3, 2026
The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin inflows to Binance from small players has fallen to 332 BTC, the lowest level since the exchange’s launch in 2017.
“Binance remains the most widely used platform among this category of players and consistently records the largest trading volumes,” the expert noted.
He highlighted several reasons for the current trend:
- Exchange storage. Access to cryptocurrency has become easier, and many users believe that holding funds with a third party is safer, even after the FTX collapse. This leads to greater centralization of asset ownership;
- Rising popularity of ETFs. In January 2024, the average monthly inflow from retail investors to Binance was about 1000 BTC, three times the current levels. Now, investors looking to profit from Bitcoin’s volatility can use exchange-traded funds, which are considered safe;
- Capital shift. Some market participants have moved from cryptocurrencies to stocks and commodities. This shift was largely influenced by the conflict in the Middle East, which has driven up oil prices;
- Accumulation. Some retail investors have increased their Bitcoin holdings and moved into the category of large holders. However, the impact of this factor is minimal.
“The evolution of Bitcoin since 2017 has clearly changed the market structure, and small participants have likely adapted accordingly, leading to lower on-chain activity compared to previous cycles,” Darkfost concluded.
A True Bear Market
The specialist also pointed out that the proportion of Bitcoin in loss has approached levels typical of previous bear markets. Currently, about 11.2 million BTC remain in profit relative to their purchase price. This is not far from the level recorded in 2022, which was 9 million BTC.
📊 The level of supply in profit and in loss is now reaching levels typical of a true bear market.
🟢 Currently, around 11.2 million BTC remain in profit relative to their purchase price.
This is not far from the lowest level of BTC in profit recorded during the previous bear… pic.twitter.com/U5CtR3AQBq— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) April 2, 2026
“On the other hand, about 8.2 million BTC are in loss. This is a significant figure, considering that during the last prolonged downturn, this number reached about 10.6 million BTC,” he noted.
According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., the market is currently under pressure from the dominance of short positions. The Positioning Index has dropped to -3.1.
Shorts are opening. Longs are getting flushed out. The Positioning Index has turned negative again. Is this a regime shift or a bear trap?
☕️ Adler AM #140👇https://t.co/yMs5dURJvJ pic.twitter.com/PPxLCFjtQf
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) April 3, 2026
The 30-day moving average of the indicator (SMA-30d) reached a local peak of +3 in mid-March at a price of $73,925, then reversed and fell to the current value. Over two and a half weeks, the metric crossed the zero mark and continued to decline, reflecting a steady increase in bearish positions.
During the same period, the Bitcoin price corrected from $74,883 to $66,603. The 30-day moving average declined in tandem with the market, confirming the weakening of its structure.
Adler Jr. stated that the main condition for a reversal is the recovery of the SMA-30d above the zero mark and maintaining positive indicator values for two to three days.
“Until then, the market structure remains clear: short positions dominate,” he concluded.
At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $67,000.
Earlier in April, CryptoQuant analysts reported that large holders have shifted from accumulating the first cryptocurrency to distributing it. According to them, the trend is long-term.