According to CryptoQuant analysts, April’s rally of the leading cryptocurrency from $66,000 to $79,000 was driven by perpetual futures, while spot demand remained negative.
Perp demand is rising. Spot demand is still contracting.
That exact setup appeared in 2022 and preceded the next leg down.
It doesn’t guarantee the same outcome, but structurally, this is a bearish demand signal. pic.twitter.com/jE1Ld6koaZ
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 30, 2026
They noted that the divergence between price growth and declining spot interest indicates a speculative nature of the movement. The Apparent Demand metric remained below zero throughout the month, indicating a lack of organic buyer support.
Experts compared the current demand structure to the beginning of the 2022 bear phase: back then, growth in derivatives volumes was also accompanied by a contraction in spot activity, after which Bitcoin entered a multi-month correction.
The digital gold’s price has already retreated from a local high of around $79,000 to approximately $77,000. By the end of April, the asset had risen nearly 12%—the best performance since the start of the year, according to CoinGlass.
Specialists called this a predictable outcome of a rally primarily based on futures.
An additional signal was CryptoQuant’s Bull Score, which dropped from 50 to 40, falling back below the neutral mark into the “bearish zone.”
Key Level for Short-Term Holders
CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente specifically pointed to the STH MVRV indicator, which reflects the position of short-term Bitcoin holders.
Bitcoin Is Close to Flipping the Market Structure
“A sustained reclaim of the Realized Price, paired with the MVRV stabilizing and trending above 1.0, would signal a structural regime change.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/AsxsyFEyzi
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 1, 2026
According to him, in the current cycle, the indicator forms a descending resistance line connecting three peaks:
- March 2024 — Bitcoin reached $72,000;
- November 2024 — price rose to $106,000;
- July 2025 — the asset hit a new high of around $120,000.
In all these cases, the price reached historical highs, but STH MVRV showed lower peaks. This is a sign of weakening momentum among short-term holders, despite rising prices.
The market is now approaching a crucial test of this structure, the expert noted. If Bitcoin consolidates above the realized price of short-term holders, this group will move from loss to profit.
According to Moreno de Vicente, a sustained recovery along with STH MVRV stabilizing above 1.0 could signal a market regime change—recent buyers would then stop pressuring the price at every rebound.
Ethereum and the Risk of a Short Squeeze
Similar tension in the derivatives market is observed with Ethereum, but the structure looks different. The altcoin’s price has dropped 65% from its local peak. The TOTAL2 indicator has fallen by more than 51%, noted analyst Darkfost.
🗞️ Short Squeeze builds on Ethereum as Funding mirrors FTX-Era Extremes
The altcoin market was hit hard during this downturn, with Ethereum at the forefront. ETH recorded a correction of around 65% from its last peak. TOTAL2, which represents the total market cap of altcoins… pic.twitter.com/7NkZo5XkNf
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 1, 2026
From the February low, the asset has recovered more than 30%. However, many participants still do not believe in the recovery and continue to open short positions, the specialist emphasized.
According to him, funding rates for Ethereum on Binance have remained negative for a long time. This was only observed during the FTX collapse and the bottom of the last bear market in November 2022.
The average monthly funding is currently -0.0018. Darkfost believes this reflects a persistent consensus among traders betting on further decline.
“This is a risky bet, and some are already paying the price—as indicated by the growing volume of short position liquidations. As ETH’s upward momentum strengthens, shorts are increasingly squeezed out. This dynamic could fuel Ethereum’s recovery: cascading liquidations are mounting. Markets rarely reward such unanimous opinion,” he concluded.
At the time of writing, the leading altcoin is trading around $2280. Over the past day, its price has risen by 0.8%, according to CoinGecko.
On April 30, Glassnode experts noted a weakening of selling pressure from Bitcoin sellers.