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Bernstein Identifies $60,000 as Bitcoin’s ‘Clear Bottom’

Bernstein Identifies $60,000 as Bitcoin's 'Clear Bottom'

As the leading cryptocurrency approaches $80,000, analysts at Bernstein believe the market is becoming fundamentally stronger. They described the recent dip to $60,000 as a ‘clear bottom,’ reports The Block

“The best days for digital assets are ahead — we anticipate a higher and structurally longer bull cycle,” the experts stated.

The analysts explained the growth potential through several factors:

  1. Influx of institutional capital. According to Bernstein, demand from ETFs strengthens the base of bitcoin holders: about 60% of the supply has not moved for over a year.  
  2. Bitcoin accumulation by Strategy. The company has accumulated 818,334 BTC and attracts yield-focused investors through its STRC product.
  3. Expanded access to crypto products via traditional financial infrastructure. Analysts highlighted the spot exchange-traded fund by Morgan Stanley and the Charles Schwab platform for trading digital gold and Ethereum. 

Bernstein also evaluates the market beyond bitcoin. Blockchain infrastructure is increasingly used in settlements, payments, and tokenization. As an example, experts pointed to stablecoins, whose supply has exceeded $300 billion.

Source: DefiLlama

According to them, “stablecoins” are becoming less dependent on market sentiment and are more frequently used for real dollar payments. 

The RWA segment has grown to $345 billion — a 110% year-on-year increase. The main contributions came from private loans and treasury bonds.

Bernstein acknowledged that long-term risks remain. Among them is the quantum threat. Nevertheless, experts expect blockchains to transition to post-quantum security mechanisms in time. 

Recovery of Activity 

At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $76,800. Over the past day, the asset’s price has dropped by 1.3% after rising above $79,000. 

Hourly chart BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView

Analysts at XWIN Japan attributed the correction to a liquidity crisis caused by forced closures of leveraged long positions totaling $100 million. 

The recovery of open interest to $25 billion indicates the return of leverage to the market, experts noted. According to them, bitcoin’s dynamics are once again sensitive to traders’ positioning, and the risk of sharp movements amid liquidations is increasing.

Additionally, Glassnode pointed out the revival. The Spot CVD indicator, reflecting market buyers’ activity, rose by 199% over the week — from $18.3 million to $54.8 million.

Perpetual CVD increased by 174.7%, reaching $315.1 million. This indicates strengthening buying pressure simultaneously in the spot and derivatives markets.

On-chain metrics also signal the return of capital. The adjusted transfer volume in the network of the leading cryptocurrency rose by 36.6% — to $7.6 billion. 

Source: Glassnode. 

Glassnode did not observe signs of speculative overheating. The share of “hot money” (funds from new short-term participants) decreased to 17.5% — significantly below historical levels of frenzy. According to analysts, the market is controlled by long-term holders. 

An additional signal is the improvement in the unrealized profit and loss indicator, which rose from -7.4% to -3.5%. The share of supply in profit reached 63.9%. The number of losing investors is decreasing, and their pressure on quotes is weakening. 

“In summary: the bitcoin market shows a combination of bullish momentum, cautious sentiment, and consolidation. While buying pressure remains steady, the decline in speculative activity suggests a more balanced approach: investors are balancing between risk and capital rotation,” concluded Glassnode. 

Back in April, analyst Michael Terpin predicted bitcoin’s bottom at $57,000. He expects the cryptocurrency to reach this level in October. 

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