Since the beginning of the year, monthly turnover on prediction markets has surged to a record $20 billion, with the number of unique wallets tripling to 840,000. These figures were shared by analysts at TRM Labs.
From Cryptocurrencies to Geopolitics
The bulk of trading activity is driven by geopolitical events, macroeconomic indicators, and the political agenda in the United States. These have displaced cryptocurrency-focused bets, which previously dominated prediction platforms.
This shift occurred amid a downturn in the digital asset sector. On Polymarket, volumes have shifted towards tariffs (116 active markets), ceasefire scenarios in Ukraine, and tensions between China and Taiwan.
A contract on a US strike on Iran attracted $73 million—a record for the platform’s geopolitical markets.
On February 28, Polymarket set a daily record of $425 million, surpassing the peak of the 2024 US presidential election. The record was driven by the resolution of Iranian markets. The volume of bets on the Khamenei departure contract soared from $23,000 to $29.6 million in a day—a 1,275-fold increase, the largest daily jump in history.
Market Structure
Analysts identified four defining features of Polymarket’s structure:
- Geopolitics dominates, but not in a single theme. Volume is fragmented among overlapping issues: leadership outcomes (Khamenei, Xi, Netanyahu), conflict scenarios (Iran, Ukraine, Venezuela), and political events (US shutdowns).
- US politics remains the second most significant pillar. Contracts tied to domestic political events.
- The market does not separate “serious” and “non-serious” events. Alongside wars, elections, and macroeconomic issues, bets in the entertainment and culture category are also in demand.
- Platforms do not separate contracts by instrumental classification, creating a “super app” experience where users trade various instruments on a single platform.
At all levels, markets related to international relations and macroeconomics occupy the top positions. Cryptocurrencies hold a small share.
Profitability and Strategies
The 10 most successful wallets on Polymarket at the beginning of 2026 demonstrated three behavioral models:
- macro conviction — several addresses focused on decisions by the Fed, earning $3.26 million;
- algorithmic market-making — a user earned $3.35 million on over a million small trades on markets related to the Oscar premium;
- event opportunism — a trader created a wallet, played on Ethereum price fluctuations, earned $709,000, and exited.
The top address earned $6.2 million across various markets, including Fed meetings, the World Cup, and the 2028 US presidential election.
Six out of ten wallets traded every day for 80 days from January 1 to March 22.
New Investments
On March 27, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced an investment in Polymarket. The amount was $600 million—part of previously agreed funding, under which the company will invest $2 billion in the platform.
ICE also announced the possibility of purchasing Polymarket securities from existing holders for up to $40 million—this will allow increasing the stake as the current fundraising stage progresses. Terms are undisclosed, with a promise to reveal them later.
Kalshi raised over $1 billion in a new funding round, increasing its valuation to $22 billion. The deal was led by Coatue Management.