K33 Analysts Identify $60,000 as Bitcoin Accumulation Zone

Bitcoin has dropped 28% over the month, falling from $82,000 to below $60,000.

The leading cryptocurrency has dropped 28% over the month, falling from $82,000 to below $60,000. According to analysts at K33, more than 10 million BTC—over 50% of the total circulating supply—are now at a loss.

A month ago, the share of “red” coins was only 30%. K33’s Head of Research, Vetle Lunde, explained that a large percentage of old coins remain unmoved. The reason is either lost wallets or owners’ reluctance to sell the asset. Thus, in previous bear cycles, the peak of the loss-making supply was in the 50-56% range.

A similar pattern was observed in 2011, 2018, and 2022. Back then, Bitcoin reached its bottom within a month after breaking the 50% mark. However, this was preceded by a final drop of 15-26%. A year after this event, growth ranged from 69% to 359%.

The current decline has brought the price back to the 200-week moving average. K33 considers this level a marker for the end of major bear cycles. The Relative Strength Index of Bitcoin has reached its lowest point since November 2018. Outflows from exchange-traded products averaged 4,108 BTC per day from May 7 to June 8. The Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 8.

Lunde noted a shift in sentiment and a capital flow into AI stocks, Big Tech, and a potential IPO for SpaceX. Meanwhile, the current downturn is shorter and shallower than in past cycles, fitting the trend of decreasing volatility.

Analysts confirmed their baseline forecast: the level around $60,000 serves as a cyclical bottom or a very attractive zone for long-term accumulation.

On June 9, analysts from Wintermute pointed out a weak capital inflow into Bitcoin.