The world’s largest bank, JPMorgan, is contemplating entering the prediction market. This was stated by the company’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, in an interview with CBS.
“Perhaps one day we will do something like this. But there are things we will definitely not do. And, of course, we have strict rules regarding insider information,” he said.
Earlier, similar ambitions were expressed by Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. During the January earnings report, he stated that the organization is actively exploring this area:
“Personally, I have met with the leadership of two major companies in the prediction field over the past weeks, spending several hours with them to learn more. We have a team studying this direction.”
Rapid Growth of the Sector
Prediction markets continue to expand. The segment is still dominated by two platforms — Polymarket and Kalshi. By the end of March, their combined trading volume reached $23.2 billion — a record high.
The leaders are also attracting more funding. In March, Kalshi received $1 billion, increasing its capitalization to $22 billion. Polymarket is also preparing for a similar move to raise its market value from the current $9 billion to $20 billion.
Meanwhile, competition is rapidly intensifying. The third place in turnover is held by the YZi Labs-backed platform Opinion, launched in October 2025. Players from the crypto industry are actively entering the prediction market: Coinbase, Crypto.com, Magic Eden, Galaxy.
Regulatory Risks
Despite rapid development, regulation remains a key uncertainty. The legal status of prediction markets in the United States is still being formed. Such platforms are currently prohibited at the state level.
The CFTC is taking steps towards creating a regulatory framework for the sector. In March, the agency published a preliminary notice of proposed regulation, inviting public discussion on rules for prediction markets.
Last week, the regulator also established an Innovation Task Force to develop standards in AI, cryptocurrencies, and prediction markets. Its participants will coordinate with other federal agencies, including the SEC.
In an interview with Dastan, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig urged officials to establish clear rules for the sector promptly. He warned that otherwise, many companies might move offshore, and investors could face an “illusion” similar to the FTX scenario.
My full interview with @ChairmanSelig of the CFTC.
We spoke about the Chairman’s upbringing, his time at the SEC and now the CFTC, crypto and prediction markets.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Background & discovering crypto
06:57 — Fighting the SEC before joining them
16:13 — Why the… pic.twitter.com/GpGh1D0iRW— Farokh (@farokh) April 1, 2026
“The story of FTX and other crypto firm collapses is before us. I fear we will witness a repeat scenario in prediction markets if we continue to push them into an offshore, unregulated environment,” Selig said.
He insists on the registration of platforms in the U.S. and the implementation of protective mechanisms for market participants.
Back in February, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned about prediction platforms turning into casinos.