Bernstein Analysts Predict Prediction Platforms to Reach $1 Trillion

Prediction platforms could reach $1 trillion by 2030, Bernstein says.

Prediction markets are rapidly evolving, moving beyond traditional sports betting. By 2030, the combined turnover of such platforms could reach $1 trillion, reports CNBC, citing Bernstein analysts.

The main drivers of growth, according to experts, include regulatory clarity, partnerships with major companies, and a structural advantage over traditional bookmakers in terms of available liquidity.

“Federal-level regulatory acceptance (as opposed to traditional state-level regulation) expands the sector. Blockchain tokenization and integration with cryptocurrencies provide global liquidity, long-term events, and institutional investor participation,” noted Bernstein.

In recent months, authorities in certain states have increased oversight of prediction platforms. However, representatives from the CFTC stated that their agency holds “exclusive jurisdiction” in this area and announced the development of unified federal rules.

Sports as an Entry Point

In 2025, trading volumes on prediction platforms tripled to $51 billion. Their popularity surged during the 2024 U.S. presidential elections. Subsequently, user focus shifted to cryptocurrencies, macroeconomics, and politics.

Since the beginning of 2026, the turnover of sector leaders — Polymarket and Kalshi — has already surpassed $60 billion. Bernstein expects this figure to rise to $240 billion by December and to $1 trillion by 2030.

While sports remain the dominant theme, accounting for 61% of total bets, analysts attribute this to restrictions on online bookmakers and fragmented regulation across different states.

However, experts believe interest in such events will cool in the coming years. They described sports as merely an “entry point,” not the ultimate goal for the audience of such platforms. The sector’s long-term prospects are linked to contracts on crypto assets, macroeconomic indicators, and politics.

“The institutional market will grow around economic, business, and political contracts — investors need more direct and closed access to such phenomena. Additionally, corporations and insurance companies will want to hedge risks associated with specific situations,” explained Bernstein.

Experts forecast the regular income (ARR) of prediction markets to grow from $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026. This will be aided by an influx of new users and optimization of monetization models.

Polymarket has already abandoned zero commissions. The platform’s ARR now stands at $420 million, analysts noted. They estimate that by the end of 2030, the sector’s total profit will increase to $10.8 billion.

Asymmetric Growth Potential

Bernstein analysts also highlighted that Robinhood and Coinbase have become key distribution channels for prediction markets.

Robinhood stands out in particular: within a year of launch, the broker’s integrated platform based on Kalshi reached an ARR of about $350 million.

“Asymmetric potential” for the company’s shares is ensured by two factors: the anticipated expansion of the segment and “high confidence” in the recovery of the crypto industry.

According to experts, weak first-quarter results are already factored into the current value of HOOD shares, which have fallen by about 50% since the end of 2025. Investor sentiment will improve as trading volumes recover in the coming months.

“We expect revenue from prediction markets to grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026. This will account for 17% of transactional revenue and 10% of total profit in the current year, which will be rich in catalysts. The U.S. hosts the World Cup in the summer, and political activity will intensify in the second half of the year ahead of the midterm elections,” Bernstein concluded.

Taxation of winnings on prediction markets has left experts puzzled.